Sunday Musings 5/8/16 Free Trade is not the Issue

Perhaps campaigns have always been like this, catering to voter's preconceived notions of what needs to happen.  I am quite sure Donald Trump's and Bernie Sander's supporters would agree that is what should be happening.

But then there is reality.

U.S. manufacturing is not in the toilet. U.S. manufacturing now produces 47% more than it did 20 years ago.  The problem is automation allows that production to occur with 29% fewer workers. Meanwhile, energy production has shifted from coal to natural gas and it takes far fewer workers to produce and use natural gas than it does coal in the production of electricity.  As a result, many younger workers are industries that have a global presence and are both earning a living being globally competitive and producing good returns for shareholders.  That is how a competitive economy operates.

We have a 5% rate of unemployment.

The level of manufacturing and employment is the result of good economic policy with free trade agreements in place.  Tearing up those free trade agreements cannot be a positive for economic stability.  Those who are not able to find work in the global economy need a different kind of assistance.  And that assistance should vary greatly between people of different ages and skills.

But that is not a pithy campaign line nor does it cater to angry preconceived notions on the part of certain categories of voters.

Meanwhile, Ross Douthat produced a scathing column on why Donald Trump is not fit to be President.

"But there still remains the problem of Trump himself. Even if you find things to appreciate in Trumpism — as I have, and still do — the man who has raised those issues is still unfit for an office as awesomely powerful as the presidency of the United States."

"His unfitness starts with basic issues of temperament. It encompasses the race-baiting, the conspiracy theorizing, the flirtations with violence, and the pathological lying that have been his campaign-trail stock in trade."

"But above all it is Trump’s authoritarianism that makes him unfit for the presidency — his stated admiration for Putin and the Chinese Politburo, his promise to use the power of the presidency against private enterprises, the casual threats he and his surrogates toss off against party donors, military officers, the press, the speaker of the House, and more."

.......

"Trump would not be an American Mussolini; even our sclerotic institutions would resist him more effectively than that. But he could test them as no modern president has tested them before — and with them, the health of our economy, the civil peace of our society and the stability of an increasingly perilous world."

"In sum: It would be possible to justify support for Trump if he merely promised a period of chaos for conservatism. But to support Trump for the presidency is to invite chaos upon the republic and the world. No policy goal, no court appointment, can justify such recklessness."

"To Trumpism’s appeal, to Trump’s constituents, conservatives should listen and answer “yes,” or “maybe,” or “not that, but how about…”

"But to Trump himself, there is no patriotic answer except “no."

Once again the professional pundit writes it better than I can, which is why they get paid to do this.

Nothing is Ever as Simple as a Politician Desires

There are so many examples of this in today's news, I'm not sure where to start, so I shall see where we go.

Donald Trump Claims the Convention Delegate appointment process is rigged against him.  Sorry Donald, you use shell companies and the legal code to isolate your properties from each other so that lenders can only look to each property for repayment.  You were able to figure that out, why can't you figure out how to get your people appointed as convention delegates?  You have only yourself to blame because you didn't bother to figure out the process and if you can't do that, how are you going to manage the country well?  I don't think you have the intelligence or sufficient ability to grasp the complexity that managing the country requires.  And you are an unworthy human being who uses their name to take advantage of other people to enrich yourself.  That may be marketing genius, but when you don't pay your debts, you are unworthy of admiration.

But Trump is only gathering the anger that a substantial percentage of white America reflects.  Steven Rattner follows up one of my earlier posts that Congressional opposition to all things Obama created this anger at the GOP establishment.  Helping people who lose their job to globalization and technology is complicated and not every possible path will be a good expenditure of public funds.  But President Obama proposed various things and the GOP Congress shot them down.  Now they are paying the price in the form of Donald Trump.

Link to Rattner Column

 Meanwhile, drought in Africa, war like conditions in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, the NE corner of Nigeria have created a complex source of migration by people who want to live somewhere safe.  One example of that is described by Thomas Friedman who was in Niger.

"Says the U.N.’s Barbut, “Desertification acts as the trigger, and climate change acts as an amplifier of the political challenges we are witnessing today: economic migrants, interethnic conflicts and extremism.” She shows me three maps of Africa with an oblong outline around a bunch of dots clustered in the middle of the continent. Map No. 1: the most vulnerable regions of desertification in Africa in 2008. Map No. 2: conflicts and food riots in Africa 2007-2008. Map No. 3: terrorist attacks in Africa in 2012."  

Bombing them to smithereens is not going to solve desertification, conflicts and food riots which cause the desperation that leads to migration and radicalization.  Solving this problem is very complex.

Link to Friedman column


And I cannot let John Kasich off the hook today.  While he is the most reasonable GOP candidate left, I saw an interview of him yesterday.  When asked about Health Insurance, he said of course we need to repeal Obamacare, but he added, we will protect people with pre-existing conditions.  

How do you make such insurance affordable if the healthy people are not required to buy health insurance?  

How do you make the health insurance companies profitable if people with pre-existing conditions can just buy health insurance when they need to?  

And how do you keep the hospitals and clinics financially viable if the uninsured, who cannot afford health insurance, are showing up there when they are sick?  

And what about the economic costs of people not maintaining their health because they don't have heath insurance.  

Health care is complex and his simple answer was loaded with followup questions which were not asked.

I almost forgot Bernie.  He is running ad's here in NY saying he will break up the banks, make college free and end income inequality by ending the rigging of the system.  Yet, when asked for details on how he would accomplish any of that. he says that has to be worked out in the future.  Well, none of that is simple, any paths have complex side effects and little of it is politically practical.  That is not the basis for running the government effectively and I will not vote for him this time, just as I never voted for him when I lived in Vermont.  I don't disagree with his policy goals, but I believe in effective and well managed government.