Sunday Musings 2 weeks before Thanksgiving

I was having a slice of cheese pizza at my old favorite in White Plains yesterday.  They pipe in the local FM station which is a mix of music that appeals to adults of all ages and local news.  They were playing Xmas music.  It is too early.  While I enjoyed it for a minute, I knew that 6 1/2 weeks of endless Xmas music is too much.  I will be sick of hearing it before I eat Turkey and avoid Black Friday.  Black Friday is when you start Xmas music.

Who knew?  I didn't and I know the Tea Party doesn't.  Thomas Jefferson had a copy of the Quran in his library and a new book documents how his study of that book helped develop his sense of religious tolerance.  He wanted Islamic immigration to the U.S.

Meanwhile, there is now documented evidence that hiring managers discriminate against the long term unemployed.  I know many conservatives believe that the long term unemployed just need to get off their derriere and look for a job, but this article shows that it isn't that simple and that creates a political problem for both parties in that these people will drain the safety net in some manner when they could be taxpayers and self-supporting.  Lord knows, I don't have an answer for the long term unemployed because the 53 year old college graduate who worked for 30 years and is now homeless, has been told  "you are too articulate" (to work at McDonalds); "need to speak Spanish" (to clean toilets); "too pretty" (to work in a laundromat); and "we don't hire the unemployed or bankrupt."  And she is not even on welfare and wants to work, but has no health insurance because she doesn't have a permanent address.  I know any one person can have psychological problems, but there are millions of long term unemployed and they do not all have psychological problems.

Unemployment is a trap

Of course, my regular readers will know where this is going.  The House GOP has dusted off their desire for a Farm Bill that maintains Agricultural Subsidies for Farm Producers (who have jobs and make a lot of money) while cutting Food Stamps for people with income below the poverty level (80% to 90%) and 2/3's of recipients are children, elderly or disabled.

There are no limits on the income of farmers who get Ag subsidies so a little bit of means testing might go a long way on this subject while the Free Market Me would just get rid of them entirely.  Even Nicholas Kristoff, who wrote one of the linkages below, gets $588 a year to not grow crops in a forest that intends to keep as a forest.  You think that kind of sh*t would get the GOP to address waste in Agricultural subsidies, but no it does not.  Unbelieveble.

Ag Insanity

More Ag Insanity


And last, a good short overview of Israel's history and current reality.

Israel's Reality

Who Reads My Blog

It must be people like me who are now despondent that things that were obvious to us are now potentially going to cause HeritageFoundation/Romney/Obamacare to fail.  Well take heart, the Affordable Health Care Act ("ACA") is going to happen and we can only hope that all the uninsured sign up.  Because once that happens, the ACA will be seen as a success by most people.

I put that title on this post because my readership has dropped like a stone since the problems emerged for the President with the implementation of the ACA.

But there is a much bigger issue brewing in American politics and that is the emergence of income inequality and the stagnant middle class dream wasting away from the middle class.  That is at the heart of both the Tea Party and a burgeoning wing of the Democratic Party.  Bill DeBlasio was not my choice for NYC Mayor, but Stop & Frisk, which I support, and resentment of the 1% is very real in much of the NYC electorate.

Now the NYC electorate is hardly representative of anything other than the NYC electorate.  But in catching up with David Brooks Newshour discussions tonight I heard him say than what happened in NYC is very much indicative of how the whole country feels about the 1%.  And it is a real political issue.

There is also a New Republic article on Elizabeth Warren vs Hillary Clinton that touches on this.  Hillary has a lot of support in the banking community from which I come.  Middle of the Road, the bankers are good guys, conservative values need to be incorporated into liberal ideas.  The country is possibly leaving us behind in resentment at the banks getting off with fines for their misbehavior 5 to 8 years ago.  Well, what else can you do to corporations?  We who own stocks also lost out in 2008.  But it may not matter to the Democratic electorate.

The New Republic article speculates that Elizabeth Warren could beat Hillary in the Primary by tapping  into this hatred of the successful.  That would leave me in a quandary.  I do respect Conservative Ideas when they are aimed at making the government work more efficiently, when they propose private sector solutions to government inefficiencies, and when they prevent some of the really crazy Democratic ideas from happening (e.g. Bernie Sander who I never voted for).

But I cannot vote for a Republican who advocates dismantling the government.  We need a safety net.  We need a functioning court system.  $%^&* we need a functioning government.  The Tea Party does not represent that and I may have to vote for a Bernie Sanders type person on the lesser of 2 evils principle because RINO's get no respect in the current GOP.

I guess I am MAD and I am going to have to just keep taking it.

Investment Commentary

I don't usually comment on equities here because I am a bond guy and I usually relate my comments to the linkages between bonds and economics and politics.

However, I cannot help but regret that I did not sell something today as the stock market hit all time highs.

I did buy a Chinese company that makes diapers as the Chinese 2 kid policy will increase demand (and I shorted a condom company).  Just kidding as we were in the office.

I do think US valuations are getting a bit stretched, and I can only observe that the market likes a functioning government.  The stock market has gone up virtually every day single day since the US government did not default and the government shut down ended.

While the Tea Party may be unhappy, is there any wonder the business wing of the GOP does not want a government default.

Sunday Musings in a Post Election November

I note the following book on the Non-Fiction Best Seller List:  Extortion by Schweizer;  The Blurb reads, "A Hoover Institution fellow argues that politicians shape legislation in order to extract donations."  Daaaah!!!  That is so obvious I see no need to write or read the book and I wonder how it made it onto the best seller list.

More importantly, Nicholas Kristof highlights a program in Oklahoma developed in a bipartisian manner over the last 20 years that promotes preschool for all 3 and 4 year olds.  I know there is a train of thought in parts of the conservative blogosphere that says Head Start is a waste of money, but Oklahoma is as Red as you can get politically, and they believe that the only sure way to address the cycle of poverty is early childhood education.  And they believe that is an appropriate role for state government.  Worth a read in the following link.

Link to Where the Kids Learn Early

In a continuation of titles that I have used on how the world is a complicated place and why that creates a necessity for capitalistic solutions, not socialistic solutions, but also creates a need for government solutions when public welfare is not priced appropriately in the private economy (pollution, safety, transportation infrastructure), Thomas Friedman lays out the capitalistic rationale (support for job creation) for HeritageFoundation/Romney/Obamacare.  The world is a complicated place and I leave it to you to click on the link to read Friedman's column.

Link to Friedman's column

And finally, Ross Douthat hits the nail on the head with the problems the GOP has winning national elections while discussing what Chris Christie cannot do if he wants the 2016 nomination.  He states:  "As a would be nominee, you have to woo base voters, not run against them, and make them feel respected even when they disagree with you."  

Yes, and then you have to run a general campaign where you show respect for the values of the middle of the political spectrum.  It is that lack of respect for compromise and solutions that respect that balance is needed in matters of government that has driven this centrist voter (I am a Scoop Jackson Democrat/Rockefeller Republican) into a straight Democratic voter for any office above the County level.  I am not alone.  Calling people like me RINO's is disrespectful when people in the middle's votes might help you win an election.

Link to Douthat's Advice to Christie

Follow the Money Again

A Gun Advocate wrote a story suggesting every gun owner go through a training program (not unlike driver education) and for that he lost his job, his editor lost his job because some advertisers in and some readers of their gun magazine did not approve of such an article.  They are so busy supporting the 2nd Amendment (Right to Bear Arms), they cannot acknowledge the 1st Amendment (Freedom of Speech) and tolerate a little debate within their ranks.  There can be no deviation from the NRA position of no control over any aspect of gun ownership.  That is the obstacle that sensible people face.

Link to Gun Advocate Dissents

And while the House of Representative Republicans are busy trying to reduce spending on Food Stamps which poor people use to feed themselves, they are blocking any reduction in Farm Subsidies for farmers.  I have never understood the GOP fascination with Farm Subsidies.  Either you believe in the Free Market or you don't.  I have supported the cessation of Farm Subsidies almost my entire adult life because I believe in the efficiency of a market economy.  But I recognize that a number of Farm State senators oppose what I believe in and so I don't get on my soapbox to state my position.  However, the hypocrisy being demonstrated by the House GOP by supporting reduced payouts to poor people while continuing to maintain payments to well off farmers who then give political contributions to the GOP must be fought against.  Either restore the Food Stamps levels or cut the farm subsidies.  I support the latter.

Gail Collins points out How Follow the Money explains Farm Subsidies

I hope Healthcare.gov starts to work well soon

Maybe then the hubbub over the cancellation of individual policies will end as people realize that the new individual policies are better public policy.

I quote someone:

"The individual market - which serves 5% of the population, and which is where the disruptions are happening - is a horror show.  It's a market where healthy people benefit from systematic discrimination against the sick, where young people benefit from the systematic discrimination against the old, where men benefit from the systematic discrimination against women, and where insurers benefit from the systematic discrimination against the uninformed."

"The result, all too often, is a market where the people who need insurance most can't get it, and the people who do get insurance find it doesn't cover them when it's most necessary.  All that is why the individual market shows much lower levels of satisfaction than every other insurance market."


I know how the old individual market works.  I am an intelligent consumer and I bought a policy based on a low price (vs the alternative) that I thought would work and it didn't based on things I couldn't figure out before I bought the policy.  Fortunately, I only had that policy for one month and I could afford the net $3,5000 it cost me.

As for the issue of you can't keep your Dr's or figure out which Dr's take which insurance.  Well, there is nothing new about that.  RSL had to figure that out for Medicare and even the DR's offices don't know for that.  So I am not surprised they don't know which of the new insurance policies which start in future they will take.  They have agreements with insurance companies and they take all the policies that insurance company issues, is how I think it works.  But the problem is not with Obamacare, it is a problem with not having a Universal Single Payer Plan.

And while the GOP is having fun bashing Obamacare implementation, why is the structure of Obamacare still their preferred reform for Medicare?

This is not helpful

"NewsMax.com is the #1 conservative news agency online. ... is the one publication in America breaking news that the liberal media gatekeepers can't censor."

That quote is from their website.  I get emails from them because I do get an education from them sometimes.  They are also shills for some other websites that want to sell you something.

But this was over the top today.

"Dear Fellow Americans:

Retirees have received an insulting 1.5% increase to their Social Security checks this past year.

And the rumors around D.C. suggest certain politicians want to drastically decrease these payments, and soon!"

Aren't these guys supporting people who want to privatize Social Security.  I am sure if I clicked on the link, they would want me to buy something.  And how is this helpful to ever getting to the Grand Bargain that will balance everything that needs to be dealt with?

This self serving is why I do not trust anything I find on anything other than a real newspaper website.