My Week in Political Thought 2/14/16

I started the week learning a lot about a segment of the underclass of America because I am doing taxes for the working poor and elderly, pro bono, meaning I don't earn any money doing this so it will not help me stay in my high property tax condo two blocks from a train station.  Or as my friend Howard said to me when I complained about my need to make some money to pay property tax increases in the future, "you haven't really downsized yet".  There is some truth in that.

Anyway, I digress.  The truth is that the working poor are very gracious and thankful that someone like me will help someone like them.  If they are in a difficult situation, they try to find happiness in what they can and they are generous when they can.  A disabled man, who lives in a rooming house, played a $1 on powerball and won $10,000.  This automatically triggered tax withholding, so he came to our site.  I asked him what he had done with his winnings.  He said, he had given some to the mother of his child so she could do something for him.  He had paid off some bills and he had helped some friends who needed help.  I then asked him what he would do with his tax refund.  He said, buy some dentures because he hadn't had any teeth for 5 years.  Medicaid doesn't cover dental or vision, so he probably didn't take good care of his teeth and this is the result.  And he is only one example of what I am finding across all my clients.

As for the primary election, I had to go north for an unfortunate funeral.  I stayed with a friend, who like me, is pretty much middle of the road, has never voted for Bernie while either of us lived in Vermont (He still does), but are aghast at the right wing agenda and their dominance of the GOP.  I asked him how his 3 boys felt about the election.  He told me that they supported Bernie even though my friend sees the high risk that Bernie will lose all the swing states electing a GOP, and he has tried to explain that to them.  But they see Obama as a Middle of the Road politician who failed them in their desire to see policies implemented that will save the environment.  As much as I am a one issue person on access to health insurance, the environment is the most important issue for them.  And either they don't trust Hillary or they see her as another Obama and they want someone to stand up for what they believe in and Bernie presents that to them.

So we will have a wide open election and the probability is high that the GOP will win.  Because, if Bernie runs, Bloomberg will run and Bloomberg will have to attract 40% of the electorate and win the swing states as well as most of the Blue States to become President.  And because I believe most of Bloomberg's voters would vote Democratic otherwise, that will likely throw the election in favor of the Republican, even if the Republican is Trump or Cruz.

The one caveat to all this is Mitch McConnell.  He will stall on Obama's Supreme Court nomination to replace Antonin Scalia.  If it looks like he is "trying to shut down the Judicial branch of the government" in doing so, he may give the Democrats and Bloomberg a chance to win especially if Trump or Cruz are the nominee because do you want to trust them with your Supreme Court appointments?

It is clear that the U.S. politics are polarized, volatile, and ironically, the likely Presidential candidates will be dedicated to policies that the other side hates and detests and this will make them even more angry.