Sunday, June 30, 2013

What Would Have Happened?

Tomorrow is the 150st anniversary of the beginning of the Battle of Gettysburg.  A book review today of yet another book on this battle that I have studied and imagined about for at least 50 of my 60 years coincides with my reading of a WWII book, which I have also studied and imagined about for at least 55 of my 60 years.  There was no reluctance for parents to buy their kids plastic machine guns that made a rat-a-dat noise 15 years after Hitler's demise.  I had a lot of fun playing in the neighborhood fields with that gun.

But none of my prior reading and wondering coincided with this blog.  So the issue of the day is the unanswerable questions of what would have happened if my wife's 10th cousin 5x removed had directed a victory at Gettysburg.  Such a victory would have almost certainly caused the South to win the Civil War if General Lee had kept going North after Gettysburg.

When would the Confederacy have given up slavery?  Well into the 20th century no doubt and probably until cotton was no longer the dominate fiber.  Or perhaps until Medicine developed to the point where the slave population overwhelmed the economics of plantations.  What would that transition have looked like?

Would the capital of the North still be Washington D.C.?

Would the Confederacy and the North reconciled and reformed the United States once slavery ended?

How would the North American nations have responded to Hitler and the Japanese?  Would Pearl Harbor have happened?  Would the Soviet Union had to defeat Hitler by themselves.  I think they would have, but at what cost and over what time frame?  The implications of a victory by Hitler are too horrible to contemplate and I cannot even ask the questions here.  One thing for sure is that Israel would not exist and the world would not have to deal with the Palestinian issue in its current form.

I think economic development in the world would be lower.

How would college and professional athletics be spread across the two countries?  Would the SEC dominate football?

I guess that is enough wondering.  Thank goodness the North won the Battle of Gettysburg.

Friday, June 28, 2013

Musings on a Relaxed Friday Night

The  Mikhail Prokhorov (Mikhail Prokhorov), owned Brooklyn Nets gave away the future, in an effort to win the NBA title in 2014, by trading 3 #1 draft positions over the next 6 years.  2019 will be an awful year for Net fans because of this. B! U! L! L! S! Go Bulls.

While we are thinking about where to build walls to keep undocumented immigrants out of the country, we should think about being complete and building a wall around Hawaii and Alaska.  I volunteer to work on the Hawaiian wall.

Thursday, June 27, 2013

Just Asking?

Sometimes I realize I am a dunce when something obvious has been staring me in the face for a while.  The NRA & its supporters oppose Gun Licensing because it would create a national database that somehow violate the Right to Privacy and Bear Arms.

However, many of those same people advocate a national database so employers can verify that potential employees are in the country legally and eligible to work.  Don't they realize they will be in that database and how is that really all that different from a Gun License database.

And of course, we are all in the Social Security database, the driver's license database, the credit bureau database, our creditor's database, our former employer's database, our school's database, and the utility company databases.

As my regular readers know, I desire consistency in policy. If we have all these other databases, why not a Gun License database?


Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Paula Deen and The Tea Party

The title does not mean Paula Deen is a Tea Party supporter.  I have no idea.

But how she got in her current situation is an example of what drives me crazy about this country at this time because of the support hypocrisy and stupidity receive from a significant component of the adult population.

Paule Deen is a 66 year old Food Network celebrity who promotes traditional Southern cooking with an emphasis on foods that in excess make you fat.  She has lived in Georgia her whole life. She was fired by the Food Network for using traditional disrespectful language and phases when discussing African Americans.  This has raised a viral firestorm amongst her fans.

I have been trying to ignore this story and was inclined to say she was sincere when she apologized.  However, a column by Frank Bruni brought it together for me.  She is a cynical business person who just wants to keep her lofty income as high as possible.

She has either no ability or no desire to be reflective about how her words and actions affect others.  All of us probably fail the test of thinking about what we say or write once in a while.  But to fail consistently reflects badly on a person and she has failed consistently.  This was far from a one off situation as she herself admitted.

It turns out she also has Type 2 diabetes which is a national scourge and one of the primary drivers of the increase in Medicare expenses.  She is fat and her food makes you fat, but she keeps promoting her style of cooking without any effort to educate her viewers that moderation might be a good idea.

It also turns out that she promotes her son's show on the Food Network.  He at least illustrates healthy (i.e. less fattening) foods.  Also, she is now a spokesperson for a new Diabetes drug.

Now, there is nothing wrong with any of this per se.  It is capitalism at its best.  However, a little bit of reflection about the incongruence of promoting fattening food consumption and Type 2 Diabetes at the same time might go a long way in educating a part of the population that needs educating.  Paula Deen could perform a public service.

The link to the Tea Party is that I suspect most of her supporters are Tea Party types who abhor Michael  Bloomberg's small efforts to promote portion control in an effort to educate people about the dangers and benefits of controlling what you consume.  The Tea Party makes great fun of him saying they want to live the way they want to.

This is what Paula Deen tried to do.  Live life without reflecting about anything other than how she made herself wealthier.  She panders to and exhibits selfishness of the 1st order.  Her popularity is symptom of what is wrong in this country and how it spills over into our politics.

Oy Vey!


Monday, June 24, 2013

Surprise, Private Sector trying to emulate Medicare

Having failed to control costs with private sector health insurance, employers with clout are trying to fix the cost the certain medical procedures.  For example, a new hip or knee can cost anywhere between $15,000 and $100,000 depending on the hospital.  So CALPERS, has gotten a number of hospitals to agree to take $30,000 and now that is all CALPERS will cover.  If the employee wants to use somebody else who charges more, they pay.

That is already the design for Medicare.

Isn't that an argument for Universal Health Insurance.

Sunday, June 23, 2013

Sunday Book Review Discussion (almost)

First, I have to comment on a few news items.  So Hong Kong is letting Edward Snowden leave some as yet to be determined bastion of freedom such as Russia or Cuba.  This high school drop out seems to have realized he done wrong (but still feels justified he did right) and wants to avoid paying the piper while enjoying his 15 minutes of celebrity.  He clearly has a problem with his value system and again offers a prime example of why high school dropouts should not be given work that requires a value system.  This is why college educations exist.  After you get a basic grounding in reading,writing, history, science and math, you go to college to learn philosophy, social sciences, and advanced training in science and math.

Along the way, you might have a few too many parties and other extracurricular activities, but somehow, with real academic standards, you will be taught values.  Some of my readers might be wondering if the current Congress has any values.  I think both the GOP and Democratic legislators are sticking to a calculus of reelection and power politics and there is nothing to indict college education  in their dysfunction.

I bring that up because there were two books reviewed in today's paper highlighting the problems with college education.   Book Review  The review discusses the unsustainabilty of the increasing cost of college and that is certainly an issue the education system must conquer, but as one who clearly benefited from college and graduate school education, I treasure the system that creates a path for an individual to find their way in life with a system of values.

Yes, college costs money and should have an economic return.  Yes, some people should not go to State U and instead go to Community College and learn a skill.  A capitalist system will figure all this out (and thankfully D.C. has bigger issues to argue about and won't be dealing with this for which they cannot have an answer).

I am finally reading Rick Atkinson's last book of his trilogy on WWII.  I recently read another very long book on the politics of WWII.  Stalin was an evil 2 timer who Hitler pissed off so thoroughly, that Stalin could not 2 time England and the U.S., which he might otherwise have done.  The inconsistency at high politics led to the U.S. being able to ship supplies to Vladivostok for Russian use against Germany without Japanese interference because Japan did not want the USSR to conduct or allow the US to conduct military action against Japan from the North.  Anyway, the seeds of Hitler's military demise were always his belief that he needed the land and resources of the Ukraine and the Caucasus's for Germany's ever expanding population.  Well he took care of that problem by killing millions of his own citizens.  I think when I am done with the current book, I will be done with WWII books.  I have an urge to read a good novel and escape from serious issues.

I had a nightmare about rising interest rates last night and how it would destroy the lives of my co-workers at my last firm.  Then I woke up and realized management had already done that and rising interest rates won't make it any worse.

The Fed is doing what it must and the markets just have to work through their reaction to find a new equilibrium.

Finally, there was an article in the paper on how it is cheaper for companies to pay a fine rather than provide health insurance.  Well yes it is.  It is also cheaper to not buy workers health insurance then it is to buy health insurance.  Companies provide health insurance because good workers want health insurance.  Bad workers probably want health insurance too, but no company is going to get 100% good workers if they do not provide health insurance.  And I would not hire a company that did not provide health insurance.  I might eat a restaurant as I will not check this out when I make a reservation.  The uninsured need a robust market for individual health insurance policies or, my preference, a transition needs to start to universal health insurance.

Friday, June 21, 2013

Farm Bill Compromises and Gerrymandering

This bill is usually a place where the GOP and Democrats find a way to meet in the middle because it is nothing but a mix of old fashioned pork and compassion for the poor, which D.C. prosperity put on steroids.

There is no question this bill is out of control in terms of total dollars and the Senate bill made some progress on curbing it.  Although it did not go far enough in curbing excessive support for farmers (because there are Senators whose farms get the money and then they scratch each other's back legislatively to get things done) and it probably did not even make a good faith effort to satisfy some GOP members on food stamps, so I will propose a path to compromise.

1st, separate the two things.  Farm subsidies and food stamps.  And do not allow anything else in either bill.

2nd:  Vote on farm subsidies for each crop individually and aim the price supports only for farmers whose Taxable Income is less than $100,000 and do not have any other income.  (yes, Mr. Tennessee Senator, that would be YOU)  And do not pay anyone not to grow something.

3rd:  Vote on food subsidies and treat food stamps for what they are;  a form of welfare to help the poor and working poor.  You don't need to include a work requirement, because welfare already captures that for the non-working and the working poor are already working.  Plus what % of the recent growth in food stamp recipients is poor seniors?  Is the GOP going to put a work requirement on people over 65? 70? 75?  There are many people over 55 who would like to work and cannot find work because of age discrimination.  Who is going to give a 65 year old a job on workfare?

But I will admit that food stamp use has grown dramatically and I can understand that the GOP does not believe this is all legitimate.  So there has to be some way to monitor legitimacy and a reasonable debate can be had that eligibility should end on a different means tested basis than it is currently.  I think the current means testing is a flat income level which is fairly high to help the working lower middle class with children, but lets in no child families of the same income.  This could be changed to reflect the number of people in a household and perhaps lowered somewhat.

Nevertheless, there is a lot of support for all this out there in the country and in the Congress.  Yet, the dysfunctional House could not find common ground.  I know gerrymandering is considered politics as usual, but I would really like to put an end to it.  Make districts represent an continuous area and let the elections fall where they may.  At least then, hopefully, Congress people would worry more about their appeal in the general election than the primary election.


Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Why Do Republicans Want a Fence for Mexico

but are not insisting on one for Canada?   More terrorists have crossed the border from Canada than Mexico.


Just asking.

Musings on a Tuesday

I am a bit bored at work today and just finished reading an article on the worst college majors to find a job.  This was based upon an analysis of what majors underemployed college graduates had.   #1 was business majors because there are more graduates than jobs.  #10 was economics for similar reasons.  I between were some useful majors and the long much maligned English major, along with a few other traditionally tough to find work majors.  No where did the article  discuss the need for the student to excel in their academic career.  You can major in anything and if you excel and get a broad based generalist education, you will have the skills to succeed with benefit of a graduate degree and hard work.  This is the downside of Yahoo's need to find articles that people will click on so they get paid by advertisers.  There was nothing of value in this article, but I clicked on it out of curiosity.

In a similar vein, Sarah Palin has resigned with Fox to be a commentator.  She clearly enjoys the limelight even if she has no desire to work as a politician again.  It is much easier to be a talking head on TV, as long as you have fans to boost the ratings and get the advertisers to pay.

I think the there is way too much advertising in this world and not enough analysis.  But then, Yahoo articles might not be free and how would I spend my "boredom" time?  You get what you pay for.

Sunday, June 16, 2013

ObamaCare is Starting to Work!!!

I have nothing original to say about this, except to say that: if the information in this article is correct and the private insurance industry can now keep the cost of health care down; those who advocated reliance on private insurance rather than a single payer plan can say "I told you so".  Of course, all those advocates are now anti-ObamaCare and the voters will simply remember that stance.

Cancer Survivors Able to Buy Health Insurance

Monday, June 10, 2013

High School Drop Out Works for Booz Allen and CIA?

Something seriously wrong has happened in this country over the last 40 years when a High School drop out gets a job with the CIA and Booz Allen Hamilton.  I don't care how tech savy the person is or where the value proposition for their skills lays on the spectrum.  A High School drop out should only be able to get work commensurate with that fact because they clearly lack a basic understanding of the value of education; which is to understand many facts and how to think about complex issues.  Working for the CIA and Booz Allen requires the ability to think.

I knew someone who tried to get a job with the CIA in 1975.  They were a college graduate with a Math major from a quality school.  They were put through a battery of tests; both written and through interrogation.  They were not offered a job.  Yet, the CIA hires Edward Snowden.

I didn't try to get hired by Booz Allen when I graduated from MBA School because I knew they wanted only those with the best grades and I was in the middle grade wise.  Now they hire high school drop outs like Edward Snowden.  Apparently, they paid Edward Snowden so well, he has a home in Hawaii and can afford to hang out in a hotel in Hong Kong.  At 29, he must have more wealth than I do at 60.  What the !@#$% was Booz Allen doing hiring a high school drop out?

I am apoplectic about this.  Why would these two institutions ever hire a high school drop out?  Look at what has happened.  Every terrorist has had confirmed what they already suspected.  The Big Satan has the ability to be looking over them every time they use electronic communication; which every country that is the subject of terrorism should be doing.  But the terrorists didn't need this confirmed.  Nobody's rights are infringed when a piece of data about their activity is logged in a database.  It is the electronic equivalent of a speed trap. If you are doing wrong, you have something to fear.  If you are not doing wrong, you have nothing to fear because you won't be pulled over.  You have to be pulled over before your rights come into play.

Friday, June 7, 2013

Thoughts on NSA Data Collection

I am almost always protective of any one's rights as an individual.  However, I am not disturbed by the NSA's collection of phone and internet data.  In those million's of bites of data, I have no fear of the specifics of my phone call with Marti being revealed to anyone.  They are not listening to all those calls.  All that is being recorded is that I called Marti and spoke with him for 20 minutes.

Now if Marti is in the tribal lands of Pakistan and I spoke with him for 60 minutes 5 times last week, I don't have a problem with the authorities tracking me down to find out what I am up.  Furthermore, the only way they will do that, since the cell phone is probably registered in Karachi, is if they find the call in Pakistani intelligence gathering and look for data in the data base to see who called it.  My rights have yet to be violated and I think the country is a whole lot safer.

None of this is perfect.  Things still happen or started to happen and were stopped.  In fact, one person was arrested after his email to a bomb maker in Pakistan was uncovered by monitoring the bomb maker's email account.  The Press long ago established the goal of all citizens being protected.  If editorial writers want to question this policy, they should start with whether perfection in citizen protection is a worthwhile or an achievable realistic goal. When they question NSA data gathering, they should remind their readers that perfection in anti-terrorist detection is near impossible and we still have to do a lot of things right to be even mostly successful in finding terrorists.

I feel safer knowing the NSA is doing what they are, but I know risks still exist and all we can do is live with that.

Thursday, June 6, 2013

Quick Thoughts on a Thursday

I heard an interesting story on an economic news story.  It turns out that there is now some statistical study (I am well aware that statistical studies can be manipulated to show anything, so I hope someone will test the details of this.) that shows states get more economic improvement from $ spent on pre-school education than on tax subsidies to lure/maintain businesses in the state.  I used to support both, but this now fits my view.  Spend available $ on pre-school education and level taxes for all businesses  so the state is competitive with near-by states.

Meanwhile, the local news is all over the Scarsdale Mom who was arrested for being a big time pot farmer.  She doesn't get an A+ for intelligence.  After her business partners were arrested, the police looked at their Facebook pages and found out she was a friend of both and a co-habitor with one.  So rather than lay low, the police were able to follow her directly to the warehouse where her "farm" was.  I hope she has a good stash to support herself in jail.  Meanwhile, I wonder what will happen to her school age kids.  There doesn't appear to be any father in the picture.

Tuesday, June 4, 2013

Being True to my Desire to be in the Middle

I quote David Frum and if followed, I might actually vote for a GOP candidate again.



"Yet as I dim the lights here at the FrumBlog, I note that the intellectual project of conservative reform remains still at very early days. Here are five essential tasks to commence before conservative reform truly rolls forward."
"1) There remain too many taboos and shibboleths even among the conservative reformers. If the only policy tool you allow yourself to use is tax credits, your reform agenda will sputter into ineffectuality. Conservative reformers need to do a better job of starting with the problem and working forward, not starting with the answer and working backward."
"2) Conservative reformers are understandably allergic to arguments about income inequality. The conservative project at its best has worked to raise the floor beneath the American middle class, not to lower the ceiling upon the middle class. But one of the lessons I think conservatives should take from the 2012 Romney defeat is that the increasing concentration of wealth in America has dangerous political and intellectual consequences. I'm not so worried that the oligarchs will pay for apologetics on their behalf. That's politics as usual. I'm more concerned that so many people will identify themselves with the interests of oligarchy without being paid, without even being conscious that this is what they are doing. The whole immigration debate, for example, is premised on the assumption that the only interests that matter are the interests of the employers of labor."
"3) Conservative reformers must not absent themselves from the environmental debate. Humanity's impact on the climate - and how to address that impact - is our world's largest long-term challenge. If conservatives refuse to acknowledge that challenge, they only guarantee that the challenge will be addressed in ways that ignore conservative insights and values."
"4) Conservative reformers should make their peace with universal health coverage. It's the law, and it won't be repealed. Other countries have managed to control costs while covering everyone, and the US can too. A message of "protect Medicare, scrap Obamacare" reinforces the image of conservatism as nothing more than the class interest of the elderly."
"5) I appreciate that conservative reformers must pay lip-service to shibboleths about Barack Obama being the worst president of all time, who won't rest until he has snuffed out the remains of constitutional liberty, etc. etc. Dissent too much from party orthodoxy, and you find yourself outside the party altogether. Still … conservative reformers should admit, if only to themselves, the harm that has been done by the politics of total war over the past five years. Now Republicans are working themselves into a frenzy that will paralyze Congress for the next 18 months at least, and could well lead to an impeachment crisis. As it becomes clear that the IRS story is an agency scandal, not a White House scandal, conservative reformers need to be ready to do their part to apply the brakes and turn the steering wheel. There will be a Republican president again someday, and that president will need American political institutions to work. Republicans also lose as those institutions degenerate."

Sunday, June 2, 2013

Sunday Musings: Bank Regulation and Cost of Health Care.

Ross Douthat is wondering about the social cohesiveness of Southern Europe as they wrestle with the Euro Crisis and the resulting high level off youth unemployment.  He advocates leaving the Euro but ignores the reality that doing so bankrupts the flow of credit that maintains employment level.  Policy is never easy when you fail to regulate the banking system and prevent systemic risks from becoming a reality that must be dealt with.  If you take his thoughts to their logical outcome, he would be for Dodd-Frank and a supporter of the Consumer Protection Bureau, something that the GOP is most definitely not.

There is also an article comparing the cost of individual medical procedures in the US vs Europe or Asia. This higher costs in the US are why Health Care here absorbs 18% of GDP while it is a much lower level in the other countries.  I must point out again that the system that created this high cost process is the one based upon private health insurance paid for by employers.  The system that the GOP supports and the system that the GOP forced ObamaCare into maintaining.  Anyone not in the employer paid health insurance system will be much better off with ObamaCare then without ObamaCare.  But the only real answer is a single payer system and Universal Health Care,which is what all the other countries have.

Saturday, June 1, 2013

What the current state of politics could learn from Civil War Soldiers

From a review of a Civil War Art Exhibit in NYC presently.

The Picture is "Home Sweet Home" by Winslow Homer.

This is all a quotation from the review.

Homer's "Home Sweet Home" is a painting of a couple of tired soldiers outside their tents watching a pot boil on a campfire under a sky of fair weather clouds.  In the middle distance light glints off the brass horns of a military band presumably playing the titular tune.  Far away, across a river, there's another encampment with campfire smoke drifting above it.  A heartbreaking back story goes with this image.  It had become a common practice when Union and Confederate troops happened to camp across rivers from each other for their bands to engage in musical exchanges.  They would take turns playing their own favorites, eliciting cheers from both sides, and then the bands would play "Home Sweet Home" in unison.  After one such interlude, a Confederate soldier wrote in his diary, "I do believe that had we not had the river between us that the two armies would have gone together and settled the war right there and then."

Unfortunately, the current state of animosity between the GOP and the Democrats resembles the politics that led up to the Civil War.  While the Democrats are willing to negotiate on budget issues, the GOP feels they need the threat of default or some other potential calamity to be present for their participation in such a negotiation.  Meanwhile, most voters would just as soon get-along and sing patriotic songs on the 4th of July celebrating this land of freedom.


For those readers, who get this far, this week I read a column remembering a grandfather who entered the US from Canada without registering and was a hard working contributor to the US economy and produced offspring who fought to defend this country.  That is not unlike many of the undocumented immigrants in the US today.  And wouldn't the country be better off if they were legally registered.

My own grandfather walked across the border from Canada and registered when he got to NYC.  All these brave immigrants wanted was a chance to work hard and live a solid life in secure circumstances.  What makes all these immigrants so brave is they are prepared to give up everything they have and go forward with nothing but their own energy.  I think many of the opponents of immigration (particularly those in rural areas) are threatened by this because they cannot imagine going somewhere with nothing and starting over.  Because these rural areas have lost out from globalization, they are fearful of even greater losses from forces they can neither control nor understand.