About the only the benefit of my occasional insomnia, where I wake up after 4 hours of sleep and cannot return to sleep, is that I get to listen to the BBC morning shows.
This morning they had an in-depth interview with Andrei Konchalovsky, the Russian movie director, and observer of Russian society. He made some excellent points that motivated me to get out of bed and get my day started at 4:30 a.m.
He quoted Daniel Patrick Moynihan, the Irish American intellectual Senator from the great state of NY. "Conservatives believe culture determines politics, Liberals believe politics determine culture."
That sentence describes an absolute truth that illuminates so many issues within the U.S. at the present moment, although for the life of me, I cannot figure out why Heritage Foundation/RomneyCare/ObamaCare is such a lightening rod issue for conservatives when (i) our old healthcare system was so clearly failing a large segment of the population while costing the remainder of the population increasing amounts of money each year and (ii) the Heritage Foundation which design ObamaCare is a conservative think tank.
But I digress from the most important issue Mr. Konchalovsky illuminated for me with that quotation.
When the neo-conservatives promote the need for the U.S.A. to create democracy everywhere, they are making the same mistake the Ultra-left makes in believing politics can determine culture. Nothing is ever implemented politically until the culture is ready to accept it. So when the left wants whatever it wants, it will face rejection until it has convinced some level of the population > 50% that whatever is an OK policy. Similarly, neo-conservative democracy nation building is going to fail unless > 50% of the country we are trying to build a state within believes that Western Democracy is right for their country.
Actually, the > 50% is probably too low a standard if you don't want the culture wars that abortion rights has created in the United States. And, if you want a well working democracy, the standard is probably north of > 80% or you have the potential for the country to look like the Ukraine at present.
Mr. Konchalovsky was explaining why Putin feels the way he does and why the Russian population is supporting him in what he is doing. In his mind, the vast majority of Russians are not yet prepared culturally for democracy. And Russia is light years closer to that stage than Iraq or anywhere else in the Arab/Persian Islamic world is. And he included China in that category, although given the success of democracy in the rest of the Confucian world, I am not a believer that China is ill-prepared culturally to become a democracy, if some brave leader could convince the Communist Party to open things up.
His main point was that you have to understand the dynamics of what the people are thinking they want from their government. The European bred western democracy has been almost 800 years in the making since the Magna Carta in 1215. Russia has been an autocracy, delivering security to the peasants since Ivan the Terrible in the mid-1500's. There was not even a pretense of democracy until the breakup of the USSR and the vast majority of the Russian people have not given up their desire to be (i) taken care of by the state and (ii) believe in the destiny of Russia to be a Great Nation.
He also explained that Russia is really two nations culturally: (i) a small minority, < 5%, centered around St. Petersburg and what is left of the Jewish population (the vast majority of whom emigrated over the last 150 years - thank you Great Grandma), are culturally Europeans, educated, and comfortable with democracy and (ii) a large majority that are culturally Russian Orthodox, feel threatened by the West and the East, want to be a great nation and want to be taken care of. Not that they are afraid to work hard. A peasant's life is centered around a hardscrabble life. But they do not want to be threatened and believe in the righteousness of a strong leader. They don't give a sh*t about democracy.
Thus, Mr. Konchalovsky's love for Mr. Moynihan's quote. Until Russian culture is prepared for democracy, do not expect a Western oriented democracy in Moscow. And the Ukraine, if you examine history, is where the conflict between Western and Eastern cultures has been most intense through the centuries. That does not justify the insurrection that Putin has fostered in the Eastern Ukraine, but offers some explanation for Putin's domestic political success in his position.
The mistake that both neo-conservatives (internationally) and the ultra left (domestically) make is the belief that politics can shape culture. That does not happen. Political change happens only when the culture is prepared to accept it, wants it, and forces it. You can only get the laws you want passed if you convince the voters that it is good policy and get them to vote for people who believe in that policy.
That is why, while I don't believe in everything Justin Amash wants to change about the government, I see the purity of his view and respect it. Although, I do believe in compromise and he apparently does not. If that works in his district, he should continue to vote his way. I loved his slam of the Swift Boat politics from the establishment Republicans that he had to work through. Now he knows how John Kerry felt.
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