Sunday, August 24, 2014

We are getting a world that happens when Congress does not react to change in forward thinking manner

If you follow the flow of people around the world carefully, you find that people move from chaos to calm.  So there is chaos in Central America from gang activity and people flow to the U.S. trying to become undocumented immigrants because the U.S. is relatively calm as long as you are not an African American male teenager or a Chicago Hispanic drug dealer.

There is also chaos in the Middle East and North Africa and not surprising there is a flow of undocumented immigrants from those places into Mediterranean Europe.  There is also chaos in the Eastern Ukraine, Afghanistan, Pakistan, parts of India and low and behold we see massive amounts of emigration from those places too.

The lesson for Congress (and the legislatures of Europe) is that policy and aid packages need to be supportive of ending chaos in the countries from which people are emigrating.  If there is no progress on ending the chaos, people will give up and emigrate. (A similar analogy could be made for Israel and the Palestinians, but since the Palestinians can not emigrate, the process simply feeds the radicalization of young men, without hope, who become the manpower for Hamas, Hizbollah, and ISIS.)

So while the Tea Party GOP has been blocking everything about operating the U.S. government, there has been little ability to adjust U.S. Foreign Aid and no ability to increase Foreign Aid.  In fact, most American voters (i) think we already spend too much on foreign aid and (ii) have no comprehension that U.S. foreign aid to foreign governments is the way to reduce undocumented immigration.

The only way undocumented immigration to the U.S. has been reduced is when either (i) there is a Great Recession in the U.S. or (ii) employment prospects in the native country are better than the U.S.  NAFTA has done more to reduce Mexican emigration to the U.S. than anything else, but try to get a Tea Party Republican or a left wing labor favoring Democrat to vote to approve a Free Trade Agreement.  Partisan politics have destroyed the moderates in the middle who understand Free Trade Agreements are good for the U.S. economy, less undocumented immigrants and more jobs for Americans.

Anyway, there have been a flurry of commentaries about how President Obama has checked out of leading.  I don't think that is the case, I think he understands that he cannot get anything passed by Congress (who aren't in session anyway and will not be until January 2015 at the earliest) and he understands that the American military and people need a break from being in harms way, so his only response to ISIS can be limited use of military.

Besides, when it comes to dealing with ISIS, you would think Turkey, Iran and Jordan would have an interest in squashing ISIS.  You would think Europe and Russia, which have their own Islamic problems, would have an interest in squashing ISIS.  And you would think Shia Iraq politicians would have an interest in building an inclusive government that binds all the opposition to ISIS within Iraq into a coherent nationstate, which is not what al-Malaki did.

I don't blame Obama because I think he knew from his intelligence that the Syrian opposition was so splintered and weak that a military victory for them was impossible and he didn't want sophisticated weapons falling into the hands of ISIS.  Little could he know that the Iraqi Army would disintegrate before 10,000 ragtag murderous maniacs and give said sophisticated weapons to ISIS.

What I do blame is Congress?  They are so fixated on not compromising and ruining the Obama Presidency they are the equivalent of Nero fiddling while Rome burned.  There is a reason all the Congresses before 2008 compromised, good government demanded that policies be shaped in the middle.  There is no pure right wing Ayn Rand set of policies that will result in a strong economy and fair society and there is no pure leftist set of policies that will result in a strong economy and fair society.  After all, ObamaCare was designed by the Heritage Foundation and 1st implemented by GOP Governor Romney.  How can ObamaCare be anything as horrible as the Tea Party and GOP make it out to be?  And the resulting hatred between partisans is hurting the U.S. on the foreign policy front.

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