View From War Zone Security Expert

I happened to sit next to two gentlemen at Breakfast today.  One was discussing his views of what has transpired through time in Iraq and Afghanistan.  I thought that he was a journalist, but when I asked him I learned that his business was personal security and he guarded the journalists in Iraq and Afghanistan.

He was British and very uncomplimentary of war zone journalists in general, stating that they simply report what the Armed Forces tell them and don't do a lot of verification out in the field themselves.  If they did, the American people would have been very unhappy with the reality on the ground.  He on the other hand, in order to protect them, had to know what was going on.

What follows are the most interesting things I over heard as I only asked him 2 direct questions before taking my leave.

The surge that Americans like to think worked so well was only successful so long as money flowed to Sunni factions to stay on the side of Shiite led government.  When the U.S. withdrew, the money stopped flowing, as the Baghdad government wouldn't pay the Sunni's and the factions joined ISIS.

As for leaving American troops there, unless the money was still flowing to buy off the Sunni factions, Americans would be fighting ISIS and supporting the Shiite's (and Iran) even more directly than they are now (and the American Army would basically have to occupy Iraq forever to keep the peace between the Sunni and Shia and both would be trying to kill the American soldiers at various points in time.

He agreed with me that Turkey has to be buying the oil from ISIS and that you have to question how much on our side the Turkish government really is.  He sees secular Turkey in decline and militant Islamic Turkey on the rise and knows more than one secular Turk who has left Turkey to reside elsewhere for the foreseeable future (as do I).

The one good thing about Gaddafi was that he knew how to control Libya.  Libya was a colonial anachronism which should really have been two countries.  Now the East and the West are trying to create those two Libya's but they don't know how to do it peacefully or equitably (oil is not evenly divided) leading to a simmering civil war.

He was slightly more optimistic about Afghanistan now that the corrupt Karzai has left office.  But Karzai is still in Kabul and a political force, so he is not really gone and he wants to protect his corrupt friends.

He doesn't see an end to the Sunni Shiite or Afghan Taliban conflict and doesn't know how to do it if the locals don't want to end the conflict.  Western Troops cannot enforce a peace if the locals don't want it, the locals will start shooing the Western Troops.  That is the reality that I am not sure any GOP Presidential candidate can campaign on.