The Edge of Chaos

10 to 15 years ago I read a book by that name.  It was a travel recollection of the cultural dynamics along the edge of Islam and Judeo-Chrisitanity from West Africa through the Middle East into Southern Russia and onto SouthEast Asia through India.  This was Pre-9/11 so there was little emphasis on Jihadism, but you could see the dangers to any western traveler passing through any of these areas.  The Rule of Law was weak, economic development stifled and chaos could break out at any time almost anywhere.

I started thinking about this when I read todays article about the chaos in the Sinai peninsula.  I didn't think anybody lived there, it is a desert, but a little research reveals that there are probably a million people there.  And the only economic activity is basically smuggling goods into Gaza.

The overriding characteristic of places where Jihadism can flourish is lack of economic opportunity.  Thomas Friedman (proper use of i & e, unlike the hot dog candidate who dwells in the chaos of Twitter) today writes about the linkage between droughts in Kansas and the rise in food prices in the Middle East that spawned the Arab Spring.  The Middle East has so little economic opportunity for many reasons, but the bottom line is autocratic governments can only afford to bribe the people for so long.  It the process of ending this is not well managed, chaos can erupt.

Desperate people do desperate things.  People with nothing are attracted to Jihadism because it gives them purpose.  I am all for the Drones killing terrorists, but it needs to be complemented with economic development to separate the hard core from the willing and enabling who participate and provide shelter only out of desperation.

This is what the US Congress should be having hearings about.  Only economic growth will reduce the risk of chaos and Jihadism.  Economic growth in desperate places is not a simple thing and what the US can do is only going to work in a gradual way.  Improving health care is one way the US can help.

Encouraging participatory politics must accompany which is why I have mixed feeling about the Egyptian Army's removal of Moorsi.  Yes, but wasn't there another way?  The US Congress does not help with any of this as their Tea Party types cannot get past their hatred of Obama and their desire to prevent him from having any legacy.  We don't have a coherent government at present and serious thought about complex issues cannot be done.  Most US politicians do not have a global view and they need to have one.  The chaotic part of the world has a love/hate attitude toward the US and we can foster either attitude depending on our policies.  It is in our national interest to reduce jihadism and we cannot do it with Drones or troops alone.  We must find a way to foster economic development and reduce the incentive of 10 to 17 year olds to become Jihadists.