Sunday, July 28, 2013

Late July Musings

The paper was a quick read, but there were some thought provoking articles.

Is it really bad if a genetically modified orange has a resistance to a bad bacteria added through a spinach gene?  That would allow more organic fruit because pesticides would not have to be sprayed to protect the fruit from the bug that spreads the bacteria.

GMO Orange Article


We are in a War on Terror that was started by Osama bin Ladan and it is not a war on Islam, but it is a war on Jihadists; who seem to manufacture themselves as a result of not having an economic stake in the Western economy.  I don't know the answer to this, but I know the US must maintain a well funded military and intelligence effort and that requires revenues from US taxpayers.  Thus, what is happening in Syria is most unfortunate and I don't have sound policy recommendation for anyone on how to improve this situation.  That is for someone else who makes the big bucks to promote.

Syria attracts Western Jihadists


Nothing is more important to the American societal fabric than the belief that if you work hard you will get ahead.  Globalization has hurt that belief for those who did/do not work in the global economy.  However, this too will pass as wage costs rise in the places where manufacturing jobs have gone.  We just have to get through the transition without destroying the belief that hard work will improve your economic standing.  That requires fair taxation, an effective safety net (serious illness should not force you into bankruptcy and pre-existing conditions should not preclude you from getting health insurance; that requires affordable individual health insurance pricing:  ObamaCare!) and a focus on quality education.

Why both Parties need to focus on sound economic policy



Friday, July 26, 2013

NIMBY's and the Tea Party

As I read about people opposing a new natural gas pipeline in the area I grew up (rural upstate NY), I was struck by the similarity between NIMBY attitudes and Tea Party attitudes.  They both will use any tactic to oppose progress on things they believe in, regardless of the impact that will have on the majority of society.

Pipelines, power lines, power plants need to go somewhere.  They are essential to the economic growth that supports hopes, dreams and realities.

Politicians in the middle of both parties should remember this and curb the extremists on both ends of the spectrum.


P.S. (for the umpteenth time)  I hate gerrymandering that creates safe seats.

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Why the Middle is so Important

The House of Representatives on a fairly close vote upheld the right of the NSA to collect data from which they can search for bad guys when they get a confirmed lead and Judicial approval.

In proof that their are nut jobs in both parties, the Tea Party combined with the ultra-left to almost pass a law barring this.  These irresponsible elected officials would take away one of our few effective tools for finding future terrorists before they hatch their plot.  This tool is not going to be 100% effective, but no tool is, and at least this tool is somewhat effective.  Only with the responsible votes of the middle (and Boehner and Pelosi voted the same), was this bill defeated.

The country cannot be ruled by extremist policies of either side.

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Compromise is What Democracy is all About

I was at a lunch yesterday where the topic was the Middle East and the status of both the Arab Spring and the growing Sunni-Shia conflict in Syria and where it may go.  Right now, there is little positive to see much of anywhere.

But the most interesting comment was the support by the people for the Egyptian Army to overthrow Morsi.  The Brotherhood and Morsi failed to realize that they needed to compromise with all factions of society if they were to govern effectively.  They didn't compromise and the public supported the coup.  Now they are out of government and violence is occurring because civil society needs compromise so everyone has a stake in the government and is not frustrated.

This is what is so disconcerting about the Tea Party in the U.S.A.  They don't want to compromise and they will not allow Congress to govern until they lose control of the House.  I cannot predict when that will happen, but I do believe it will eventually happen.  I doubt it will be 2014, but it could be 2016, 2018, 2020 or 2022.  I do believe that as long as the Tea Party dominates the GOP, a Democrat will win the Presidency, even if the GOP controls the Congress.

The following Links to a Peter Beineart discussion on the subject that is worth the time to read.

Peter Beinart LInk



One Can Only Hope: Fox News Audience Demographically Challenged


FOX NEWS’ GRAYING AUDIENCE: A fascinating tidbit from Bill Carter:
Just how old is its audience? It is impossible to be precise because Nielsen stops giving an exact figure for median age once it passes 65. But for six of the last eight years, Fox News has had a median age of 65-plus and the number of viewers in the 25-54 year old group has been falling consistently, down five years in a row in prime time, from an average of 557,000 viewers five years ago to 379,000 this year. That has occurred even though Fox’s overall audience in prime time is up this year, to 2.02 million from 1.89 million three years ago.


Perhaps, young people, who need a functioning society, are not interested in the negativism that Fox News represents and/or they have better things to do with their time.

Sunday, July 21, 2013

Race & the Understanding of Race Relations

Many on the hard right are belittling the President for weighing in with thoughts on Trayvon Martin.  They say he is politicizing a jury decision.  I think he was showing leadership and trying to educate the country as to why African Americans were upset by the decision.  Obama did not question the verdict.  He questioned the law, which I have done also, and urged protests to be non-violent.  That is responsible leadership.

Most of us (and I include myself) have no idea what it is like to grow up as an African American male.  Most White American's accepted the verdict and wanted to move on.  We don't understand the simmering resentment that persists within the African American community because it is not part of our experience.  Most African American's I have known well grew up in white America.

I golfed yesterday with 3 African American's who, to me, did not grow up in white America.  It was cordial, but a really different experience from my normal golf outing in that the interest in sharing information in light conversation was limited.  We did not have much in common other than golf.
This difference in experience will take decades to disappear.   My son's generation will have less of it than the Baby Boomer generation.  Perhaps, we will have a post racial society by the time my grandchildren are middle aged adults, but we do not have that today.

The President used his position as a successful person in society to show the African American community that he cares about their concerns and that there is a proper way to change things they don't like about America and an improper way that should not be pursued.  That is leadership, and perhaps political in the sense that anything that mobilizes a community to vote is political.  It is not improper politics because Politicians are supposed to lead.  The legality of a killing of an unarmed person should be questioned by authorities and a prosecution considered.  Then a jury decides quilt or innocence under the law.  Then society moves on.  But if a substantial percentage of the population takes issue with situation, someone needs to address their concerns and that is what the President did in a responsible way.

Saturday, July 20, 2013

House GOP, Budget Control and Agriculture Subsidies

I have discussed the fox in the hen house syndrome in prior blogs.  Some members of the House GOP collect farm subsidies while they vote to increase those farm subsidies and cut spending on necessary spending while refusing to vote for a revenue increase.

The following article points out that point of hypocrisy pervades most of the House GOP.  Politics can be mean, but it should be honorable, honest, trustworthy and without hypocrisy.

 House GOP Votes to Increase Farm Subsidies


I am off to golf in 100 degree heat.  I may have to use a golf cart.

Thursday, July 18, 2013

Children

This is going to be a celebration of triumph.  I am watching a PBS show on South African opera singers.  It is a heart warming story of young people of African heritage becoming Opera singers and the joy their parents feel.  It puts to shame the horrors of apartheid on Nelson Mandela's 95 birthday which I and the show celebrate.  No race is superior. No member of an economic class should be superior.

That is what life is all about, once you are past survival; fairness, diligent work and opportunity for your children. 

Aleksei A. Navalny & Pussy Riot

Being a professional emerging markets investor and a descendent of a Russian (and a Hungarian and 2 Finns), I know the world is a complicated place.  My regular readers know that I am very thankful my great grandmother left her husband (who family lore has being the son of the Chief Rabbi of Moscow - but that makes no sense to me as why would the son of the Chief Rabbi of Moscow be living in Kovel, Ukraine?) to come to the U.S. and assist my personal gene pool.  I wouldn't be me if she hadn't.

What makes Russia such a difficult place to understand is its own complications (not unlike the U.S.A.)    Being an aging Punk Rocker, I was taken by Pussy Riot's actions and understood their motivations very well.  Being a pro-the-people person when it comes to escaping over bearing government, I support the Syrian Free Army and anyone who wants to improve individual freedoms.  I didn't know what to think about Aleksei Navalny because corruption is so rampant in corporate Russia and if you work there, I don't know what is true and what isn't.  Transparency and a rule of law is needed in Russia.  That is why I only buy bonds of the sovereign and state owned companies.  The Oligarchs, in control of everything else, need to understand that the Rule of Putin must evolve into the Rule of Law; if Russia is to evolve into an integrated member of the global community.

I was in Moscow in 1994 and met someone who studied the U.S.A. during the Communist era. He told me a priceless comment.  "We imported the only kind of capitalism we could observe, DALLAS."  Dallas, unfortunately, is still alive in the U.S.A. in the Republican Party. For the unknowing, Dallas was a TV show where people with money in Texas ran over people to become more wealthy.  Nothing I have ever heard about Russia is more true than this statement.

I have finally gathered enough information to believe that Aleksei Navalny has been framed.  That is unfortunate.  So is the Russian government's support of Assad and Iran, while Iran supports the Islamic Terrorists in the Caucuses.

So what is the conclusion?  You cannot be effective if you are in jail.  Other paths must be found.  When frustration erupts and you can't stand it anymore, get enough people to agree with you, quietly, so that you personally don't get put away for 5 years.  Use anonymous electronic media to gather this support.

If so many descendents of Russians can be successful in the West, all Russians can be successful in Russia.  The newest version of the Tsar's and the communist autocracy can be overcome.  Just do it in a way that keeps you out of jail and with your family.


Why I am no longer a Republican, again

RedStateVT doesn't believe I was ever a Republican, but that was my declaration as recently as 1998, and I even voted for Republicans after I became a Vermont voter in 2004.  I am a Conservative Centrist on many issues and an unabashed libertarian on the rights of individuals (except when it comes to national security).

But I believe in change.  That is reality.  People change.  Business changes.  Government policies need to change

The following link will take you the best description, largely with quotes from Republicans, on why Congress doesn't work and the U.S. is governed almost solely by Presidential fiat.

Link


Wednesday, July 17, 2013

OBAMACARE Works (in NY)

which is very important to my budget.


Health Plan Cost for New Yorkers Set to Fall 50%


Tuesday, July 16, 2013

It's Never Simple

Which is why policies need to be thoughtful and embrace a variety of views.  Gun Control is a necessity and Stand Your Ground an absurd law.  But guns are a reality and a right.  The hard right would have you believe everyone should have a gun, but that would only create more innocent deaths.  The ultra left would have you believe many things that are not true.  Gridlock in D.C. exacerbates this because people don't see the government working.  Sequestration is causing people making $40,000 a year fixing Army trucks to lose 20% of their pay for no particularly good reason.  The trucks need fixing.  No wonder people are angry.

Anyway, both David Brooks and Charles Blow illustrate the complexity of the world in their columns today.

Charles Blow on Race Complexity in Florida


David Brooks on Society's Compexity



By the way, on a blog last week about Hateful commentary, RedStateVT commented that Democrats make hateful statements about Republicans.  Yes, but they are not NFL rookies just being part of their family.  And the owner of the Motel we stayed at over the 4th of July stills believes that Obama is a Muslim and Death Panels are in the Affordable Health Care Act.  She may be an angry undereducated individual, but she didn't make up these thoughts.  Responsible representatives of the GOP make this stuff up.

Monday, July 15, 2013

Monday Musings

Stand Your Ground is bad law.  Trayvon Martin could have justified his assault on George Zimmerman for Mr. Zimmerman's stalking and threatening him with a gun.  George Zimmerman was able to justify his shooting of Trayvon Martin because Trayvon assaulted him.  What Stand Your Ground creates is the Wild West and an absence of law in personal interaction involving violence.

I have read a lot of history on WWII including books on Russia's critical role in winning the war, but I never read anything about the female night bomber pilots until today.  I hope they get more play in Russian history.

Link to Story

Meanwhile, Paul Krugman sums up the absolute idiocy of farm subsidy politics in both parties (although his column is focused on the GOP).  Not sure why the copy and paste changed the font size below so much.


"To fully appreciate what just went down, listen to the rhetoric conservatives often use to justify eliminating safety-net programs. It goes something like this: “You’re personally free to help the poor. But the government has no right to take people’s money” — frequently, at this point, they add the words “at the point of a gun” — “and force them to give it to the poor.”
"It is, however, apparently perfectly O.K. to take people’s money at the point of a gun and force them to give it to agribusinesses and the wealthy."
"Now, some enemies of food stamps don’t quote libertarian philosophy; they quote the Bible instead. Representative Stephen Fincher of Tennessee, for example, cited the New Testament: “The one who is unwilling to work shall not eat.” Sure enough, it turns out that Mr. Fincher has personally received millions in farm subsidies."
I previously discussed Mr. Fincher's hypocrisy of being a fox in the henhouse when it comes to voting on federal agricultural subsidies which add to his personal income while voting to reduce the tax rate on that income.

Sunday, July 14, 2013

Book Review Musings

I am not surprised by the Zimmerman verdict, but he certainly generated the situation and bears the responsibility of guilt in some manner.  Nothing more to say about that.

The Book Review is the only stimulating place today.  There are some priceless quotes in the Book Review of Act of Congress  by Robert Kaiser.  I don't think I will read 417 pages on Congress's process, but the book review is worth reading.

Book Review

The part that got my sleep addled brain working was the following:  "Kaiser is skeptical of public opinion, and even more so of the politicians who pander to it."  "Let's concede that the great unwashed can be ignorant, irrational and erratic...The voters are no bargain."  "Public opinion may not be responsible or dignified....But sometimes it is our only hope."

The subject of the book is Dodd-Frank which I broadly support because I trust neither the regulators nor the banks to be scrupulous at all time individually, but hope that collectively they will never create the environment that led to the Great Recession.  We can always argue about specific details in the bill, but we are in a better place with the broad strokes in place and it appears that voters, who greatly distress me as personified in the House of Representatives, are responsible for this bill.

Then I read a brief blurb on Cronkite by Douglas Brinkley.  My 1st thought was "Is that David Brinkley's son?"  I haven't googled that yet to find out, but it would be ironic.  I also think I will read this book because it will be interesting and nostalgic.  I don't intellectually believe nostalgia is a good base for policy making which must deal with the present, but it is a nice resting place for relaxing.  The 50's and 60's were seemingly ideal for a child to grow up in (as I did) and Walter Cronkite was in many ways the best chronicler of that time for most of us.

And that's the way it is, today, Sunday July 14th.

Saturday, July 13, 2013

Why Does the Hard Right Hate Individuals Who Have Cultural Pride?

If you listen to "Conservative" talk radio at all, you know that many of the callers and talk show hosts believe the only good Americans are caucasian.  They speak with disrespect of any cultural identity display by non-caucasians.

The latest example of this put me over the edge and asking this question.  A 22 year old American citizen of Palestinian descent (his parents came here 40 years ago), who will play in the NFL this year, spent a weekend discussing his accomplishments.  Not only did he work hard enough as an athlete to be drafted by the NFL, he graduated from the University of Virginia in 3 years (something most college football players take 5 years to do, if they do at all).  This was not a public convention.  It was the equivalent of all the immigrants from County Cork or Naples having a get together to visit, rehash life in the old country and celebrate their life in the U.S. while renewing friendship.

Yet, Front Page Magazine, an entity which purports to tell the truth to Conservatives, trashes this young man as a speaker at a Radical Muslim conference.  To what end?  I doubt they sent a reporter to this event.  I don't even have a clue how they found out about it except to ponder whether some scared white person saw people of color gathering, saw Arab names and just assumed it was a bunch of terrorists because they think all people of color are terrorists.

This is the problem with Conservative writing and talk radio.  It promotes hate.  Most people in the middle do not listen to talk radio and most people not in the Conservative movement just ignore all this. I certainly try to.  But these people need to be held accountable because they can ruin peoples lives.  They should not manufacture stuff up, which is what the Conservative Right does all the time.  Obama is a Muslim.  Obama is not a US citizen. Death Panels.  White House directed IRS investigations of citizens.  Socialist policies. and on and on and on.

Let's argue policies based on facts and truths.  There are legitimate points to both GOP and Democratic points of view.  Promoting hate is neither helpful to the process nor an attractive quality to those who perpetuate this tack.

Friday, July 12, 2013

Banks Get No Love

A few Senators (Democratic, Independent and GOP) are proposing reinstating Glass-Steagall because somehow this would have prevented the housing bubble.

I published the following as a comment to the article.


  • Tom White
  • Burlington, VT
This proposal ignores reality. The institutions that failed were primarily old fashioned banks and investment banks that would have been in place even if Glass-Steagall had been in place. Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers did not take deposits. AIG was an insurance company. Countrywide and Washington Mutual were Savings Banks. The British Banks that needed saving failed on their mortgage holdings. Citibank needed saving not because of securities trading, but because of their banking investment in securities. This does not address the root cause of the Housing Bubble: Inadequate regulation and criminal fiduciary failure by the Rating Agencies.



Notice that after 5 hours I have 3 recommends.  The other 33 comments are all anti-bank and many have substantially more Recommends.  I have spent most of my career either working in a bank or with bank products and analyzing the banking industry.  I think I know something about banking, and while the Housing Bubble cost me my well paying job and substantial savings, I am not going to start advocating policies that make no sense.  What is stunning is that an article like this should get readers who know as much as I do, but they either don't read the comments, or only the wacko's who hate the banks click on recommends.

Anyway, clearly banks get no love.

Fast & Furious: Oops, it started a before 2009, Never Mind

I don't mind Congress investigating the Presidential Branch.  They are supposed to.  But I wish the current GOP led House of Representatives would do so in an honest way.

Fast and Furious — that gunrunning scheme into Mexico by federal agents, known to conservatives as a vast conspiracy by Obama to bring on gun control — is traced to the White House, just as Issa predicted. Except, it was George W. Bush’s White House, where the practice of letting guns cross borders originated in a similar program called Operation Wide Receiver. Move along.


Link to Complete Sordid Overview

We need the government to govern, not posture and pretend things don't need doing.

David Brooks debunks Anti-immigration arguments

And while David Brooks is at it, I wish he would hold the House GOP responsible for not presenting what HealthCare would look like in their vision if there were no ObamaCare.  They just vote for repeal and returning us to the land of uninsured and skyrocketing health care expenses.

I remind my readers that it was BS like this that inspired the title of this Blog!

The country has problems and there are bi-partisian solutions.  Immigration, HealthCare, Tax Reform.  As for judicial appointments, the country does not win if the Democrats never get to appoint anyone.  That is unacceptable to them and they will just block all GOP appointments if the Senate never votes on  a Democratic appointment.  It is not good for equal justice if there are an inadequate number of judges, but if I was a Democratic Senator,  I would believe that the time has come for equal behavior if the shoe is on the other foot.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

How Ironic: 360 Degrees

Reading this a.m. about a proposal by the FDIC that bank holding companies hold 5% capital against 100% of all assets (unclear if that includes off-balance sheet items and whether there would be any consideration of mark-to-market) and deposit taking subsidiaries would have hold 6%.

The irony is that the whole point of developing risk based capital was to get the regulators to recognize that a "B" risk is different from a "AAA" risk.  The success of that effort led some banks to load up on low risk based capital assets that did not deserve their rating.  Because the rating agencies did not think about correlation risk correctly in their ratings of sub-prime bonds, they and risk based capital charges (in the eyes of some) generated the housing bubble and the Great Recession.  That generated the need for TARP and the rescue of Fannie and Freddie and a political imperative that Too Big Too Fail be ended.

The industry goal of risk based capital was to allow banks to become very big without failing.  The irony is that they were successful in getting very big, but f*&#@ up the implementation of Risk Based Capital by forgetting the prudent judgment was also needed and now risk based capital is discredited by the politicians and the citizens to whom the regulators must answer.  And I must say, shareholders are not too impressed by the end result.

So, we have now traveled the full 360 degree circle from mandatory minimum capital to RBC back to mandatory minimum capital.  At least, there is no mandatory cap on bank size, so there is hope for banks to find a way to not fail and reward shareholders.

Sunday, July 7, 2013

The Weather Patterns Sure Are Different

From what I understand the steady intermittent rain that was unending for the last week to ten days depending on where you are along the Eastern Seaboard not only rained out the fireworks in Buchanan, VA where I was visiting, but also did some kind of course closing damage to the West Bolton Golf Club in Jericho, VT.  That is difficult to imagine because the creek there is only one side of one hole and then it is about 50 feet down a steep slope from which I have retrieved many a slice.

Ross Douthat has illuminated me again.  I did not realize that John McCain advocated doing away with employer sponsored health insurance in the 2008 campaign.  As my regular readers know, that is one of  my core beliefs about the proper structure of health insurance.  Of course, President Obama said no to that then as a campaign issue (and he could have done differently and won just on the economy) and then couldn't back down in the ferocious campaign against ObamaCare by the GOP in the Congress (DESPITE THE WHOLE DESIGN BEING DEVELOPED BY THE GOP THINK TANK - THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION - AND IMPLEMENTED BY GOVERNOR ROMNEY IN MASS.)

I must be getting old.  After a quick 4 day trip to Virginia, I needed to sleep 10 hours.  Don't know if it was the 8 hours each way in the car, the unfamiliar bed, or too much fun.

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Boo Hoo DropOut

Poor Mr. Snowden!  His most recent behavior shows just why High School Drop Outs should not be given positions of responsibility.  No ability to exercise sound judgement.

“The Obama administration has now adopted the strategy of using citizenship as a weapon,” the statement attributed to Mr. Snowden said. “Although I am convicted of nothing, it has unilaterally revoked my passport, leaving me a stateless person. Without any judicial order, the administration now seeks to stop me exercising a basic right.  A right that belongs to everybody. The right to seek asylum.” 

What did he think would happen to him if he violated US Law and tried to hide overseas?

Your wanted by the US for harming national security and you are surprised that they would revoke your passport?  You are surprised that they would make it difficult to travel across borders?  You are surprised that they want to pursue you to any airport you might land at?

Asylum is not a right in the Constitution.  It is a political statement generally used to support innocent or abused victims of government by another country.  Snowden violated U.S. law.  That is what extradition treaties cover.  Whatever the US wants, another country can ignore if they have no extradition treaty and offer him asylum if they want to.  Perhaps they don't want an unemployable idiot living off their taxpayers.

His idiotic behavior since his deed just reinforces my anger at the CIA and Booze Allen Hamilton for hiring the guy in the 1st place.  High School dropouts cannot be trusted with national security.  They have no discipline or ability to think coherently about responsibilities.  If they did, they would have graduated from High School.