King Donald Shows How He Plans to Govern

We shouldn't be surprised at the way in which things have transpired, but it is so different from the norm that it is surprising.

But in that difference we see why the norm is the norm.  Policies have unintended consequences and bureaucracies have the expertise to understand possible consequences and inform the policy makers of them so the consequences can be considered in formulating policies to achieve goals without incurring undesirable costs.

This is something the Obama Administration forgot (or didn't understand) when they mandated certain coverages into Obamacare.  Yes, the costs for health insurance came down in NY State, but not in many of the other rural states with less comprehensive health regulations.  Similarly with raising the minimum wage, an appropriate minimum wage in an urban area is higher than an appropriate minimum wage in a rural area.  And how do you manage the geographic transition between the two areas?

But I digress, I need to address King Donald whose immigration policy and desire for extreme vetting  is really not all that different from what President Obama was doing except in one straight forward way:  President Obama didn't issue a blanket ban on any one country's people and tell people NFW your getting in.

So let us look at the consequences of this ban.  The Head of the Iraqi Army, whose family lives in the U.S,. cannot meet with the leaders of the U.S. Army he is trying to coordinate with in the U.S.  People who have helped us in these countries, been through the vetting process, have had their VISA's withdrawn.  The public way in which this was done will help radical terrorists a bit in their recruiting.  And we will discourage Muslims from helping us fight radical Islam by showing a bitter insensitivity in failing to recognize individuality and accepting of differences, the basis of our countries entire history.

The U.S. is great because the best and the brightest had the chutzpah to recognize there was terror at home and they needed to get up and go.  When the best and brightest everywhere else got to the U.S., they helped make America Great in the 1st Place.  If my 63 years of living have shown me anything, it is that immigrants and their descendent's work harder than native born for 1 or 2 generations before normalizing.  There is nothing more motivating to move than terror in one's home country.  The best and brightest from those 7 countries are on the move and wherever they land will benefit from their brains and energy and work ethic.

None of this matters to King Donald.  He wants to do stuff and he is doing it without any input from those who understand unintended consequences.  And he wants to fire anybody who disagrees with him because they understand the unintended consequences.  I am not referring to the Justice Department, but rather Homeland Security and The State Department, neither of which was consulted.  And thus we have a story about how some European, Asian, South American and African Leaders are saying perhaps we need to do more with China and ignore U.S. wishes about some things.  That is the consequence of many Trump actions that harm our friends today and may help our opposition in the future.

So where does this leave us?

David Brooks today highlights the Faustian bargain Congressional GOP Leaders face. Yes, King Donald will sign bills they like and appoint Supreme Court Justices they like, but in the process they will be insulted, they will be supporting disengagement from global trade, they will be supporting incompetence and an aura of bigotry and cruelty.  Brooks has watched a lot of administrations and never before has he seen one with such callousness, incompetence, and demanding of personal loyalty.  He predicts a GOP lead impeachment sooner or later.  And this all strikes me as the behavior of a King, not a President.  Thus, henceforth, he shall be King Donald.

Of course, to we Democrats, President Pence will be no better except in temperament.  The policies will still be just as reactionary.  And behind President Pence, will be President Ryan, and then President somebody from the GOP Senate and then the Secretary of State.  So impeachment will not change the Supreme Court nomination direction.  Can 3 80 year justices hang on for another 4 years? And can the Democrats find an economic message to campaign on in rural areas?  Unanswerable questions.

But I have to return to health care as I frequently do.

The NYT today showed how illogical our debate over Health Care is.  We have what is called Premium Subsidies in Part D Medicare and ObamaCare.  The GOP wants to extend this concept to basic Medicare and do away with it in ObamaCare.  The Democrats want to prevent the extension of this concept to Medicare and keep it in ObamaCare/KingDonaldCare.  Interestingly, neither party wants to change it in Medicare Part D.  You would think a compromise might be there somewhere.

Link To Brooks Column

Link to Medicare Discussion

An Email I Wrote to a Fellow Democrat: Moving Forward

I couldn’t agree more with that writer.  Witness the private push back from the few moderate and a few conservative House members at the Philadelphia GOP retreat on rapid repeal of the ACA.  I have been thinking of a writing the upstate GOP CongressPeople a letter saying they risk alienation of anybody who loses their health insurance because of TrumpCare and there are quite a few upstate who would probably do so.  But I also think those GOP people already know that, but they have made a bargain to support Trump and are riding the bucking bronco.

i agree with you that the real issue for all Democrats is how to take back the House and Senate and win the Presidency. The question that only candidates who run in rural areas can answer is what balance of issues will convince swing voters to swing the other way.  We cannot answer that from our NYC bubble.

What this election made clear to me is identity politics are the Democratic equivalent of religious right and NRA issues for the GOP.  The Democrats can only back off so far on identity issues because they are generally a moral issue, but they have also mostly been won and need to be defended. When you are down to defending the rights of Transgender people who are a very small percentage of the population you have won on most of the issues. You don’t need to run the oppositions noses into the ground on the issue.  If a Baker doesn’t want to bake a cake for a gay wedding, go to another baker and simply never go back to the 1st baker. Of course, there are still some major issues (Black Lives Matter, Gun Control, Income inequality) and Trump is creating more of them without solving any of them (Immigration).

But I think the key issue is the loss of rural Democratic voters who respond to an economic message.  That is the challenge for those of us on the coasts who have prospered in the Global Economy.  Certainly a focus on income inequality is key but so is developing a set of policies that will help people develop small businesses in rural areas.  That revolves around some tax policy, some access to capital issues, but also state regulations.  New York’s Worker’s Compensation costs are out of control and that is a state issue that hurts small business.  I don’t know a  solution to the latter problem because I suspect it revolves around the amount of money the fund pays out to workers hurt on the job and while fraud is likely an issue, so is providing enough money to live on for the truly injured.  So these economic issues are complicated and require some coordination between State and Federal level politicians if some rural voters are to start believing that the Democrats are listening to them and responding to their needs

The one caveat to identity issues being won is Roe v Wade will likely be overturned in 2 to 4 years depending on further SCOTUS retirements.  I heard last night somewhere that Justice Kennedy is likely to retire at the end of this year and who knows when Justice RBG might retire.   It will be interesting to see if the GOP allows State’s Rights to function on that issue.  i personally plan to start sending some of our charity $ to Planned Parenthood.  They will need increased support from their supporters.

I would like to be encouraged by an impeachment but VEEP Pence is a fervent believer in the Reactionary Right and is really no better except perhaps on international relations.

I Know This is True because

I found it on Facebook and the deceitful real media ignored it.

Trump Issues Executive Order Overturning Pardoned Turkeys

Why We Are Shocked

The basic reason is we don't understand his voters aside from those who are traditional hardcore conservatives who want to cut taxes, end all forms of Federal Safety Nets, and basically turn US society into an Ayn Rand utopia (although she was in favor of a woman having the freedom to not have a child).  They make those of us who believe in government angry and fearful.

But the reason we are shocked is we have gone from Hope to Fear as David Brooks explains well today in his column.  We are not being governed by an administration with courage to provide optimism and I am not sure we have ever had a President who didn't have an optimistic side.

Link to the Politics of Cowardice

I want to rant and rant

but since Dangerous Donald doesn't read this blog what difference would it make.

And I realized today, for the nth time, that all he wants to do is dominate the Newscycle which is what he is doing with all these tweets and excecutive orders.

If I write about his sh*t, I am feeding into the frenzy that he desires to generate.

The really important question is should I sell all my growth stocks, because he is going to ruin the global economy.  Current valuations are not priced for that.

Donald Trump Melts Down

Numerous reports this afternoon about his ego being bruised by the millions of women marching on Saturday and sending his press secretary out with explicit orders to take they and the media down, irrespective of the truth.

And today we find out that the Head of the OMB wants to gut Medicare, when Trump campaigned on protecting Medicare.  Can't wait to see how that plays out in the 2018 mid-term elections.  Especially, if the Democrats can develop a factory worker economic policy that might work in northern rural areas.  Trump's is likely to mostly help the South.

But none of that will matter to core Trump supporters who are described by by Terrell Jermaine Starr as being only concerned about protecting their privilege.

 Link to full column

"No matter. Russia is not a threat to most Trump supporters. Mexicans, Muslims, blacks and anyone nonwhite, however, are."

"The New York Times found that most Trump supporters in Louisiana and Indiana, states he won by 20 points, don’t understand why the Russian interference is a big deal. The report found that several of them flat-out did not believe Russia tried to interfere with the election and that they were drawn to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan. One supporter told a Times reporter that if hacking helped Trump win, “I’m glad they did it.”

"Their indifference to Putin’s behavior may be shocking to many of us, but it really shouldn’t be. These are the same supporters who back a man who went on a years-long witch hunt to force Barack Obama to produce a birth certificate to disprove he was born in Kenya. Two-thirds of them believe he is a Muslim."

"If protecting the integrity of the United States were a priority to Trump backers, they would be appalled by Trump’s refusal to release his tax returns, which would resolve any questions of potential business dealings he has with foreign governments. They would object to his insults of the men and women who serve in the intelligence community and who characterize Russia as an “existential threat.”

"But none of this matters to many Trump supporters — racism won’t allow them to see that Moscow is a far more dangerous threat to them than Mexico City. Trump is obliging their No. 1 concern: the defense of American whiteness."

Here is What Will Get Donald Trump Impeached

For my readers in other countries, which is most of you, you must remember that to be impeached it takes a majority of the House of Representatives to indict the President and 2/3's of the Senate must vote to impeach.  So there will have to be substantial Republican support to impeach Donald Trump.

Violations of the Emoluments Clause will not be enough to get the GOP legislators to vote for this.  Too many of their voters and campaign contributions don't see this clause as applying to a business relationship, unless there is a smoking gun relationship to a direct policy action.  Which there may be some day, but I doubt it.  And if Trump were a Democrat with liberal leanings for the Supreme Court you can be the GOP would be already filing for impeachment on this basis.  But the GOP cannot let hypocrisy get in their way of ramming their vision for America down our throats.

What I believe Trump could do and the GOP will not stand for is use t"he IRS, the FBI, and Regulatory Agencies for personal advantage and abusing power against his perceived enemies"*.  If he does that, then we will see calls for impeachment rise in a bipartisan way.

The only drawback to that as a Democrat, is Mike Pence is also a Conservative ideologue and the GOP will still control the Congress so policies will not improve upon impeachment.  The only saving grace is a man of no morals will no longer be in the White House.

Of course, Machiavellian men do not see abuse of power as a flaw, but rather as the way of the world. So perhaps the GOP would not support an impeachment under these circumstances.


*Peter Wehner NYT column

"Stop the Carnage"

I quote President Trump.

How about banning assault rifles and automatic pistols?

Jennifer Rubin Blasts Trump's Vision as based upon Untruths

I don't have the stomach to watch the news today.  Unfortunately, I had to work today and there is precious little natural snow to ski on near by, so I am now at home.

But I did check in with the Washington Post and found Jennifer Rubin, who is a card carrying conservative supporter of everything the GOP stood for 24 months ago.  And she rarely, if ever, said anything nice about Obama.

But here is a link to her "God Help Us" Column.  I think she hates Trump as much as I do.

Trump's America is a Rotten Place

Trump Staggers Me

I really don't know how he does it.  I think he is unhinged in his energy and craving for adulation.  I am exhausted by his wandering rants and news creation.  I realize the news creation isn't really hard news and I wonder why the press covers it all.  Almost the entire 1st section of the New York Times today was about Trump and not one article had an iota of hard news about something concrete.

If Twitter weren't my primary way of keeping up with Union Hockey during games, I think I would quit the medium out of protest.  Twitter should have a policy of not allowing Presidents to use their service.  I am sure some lawyer could figure out a legitimate reason for such a policy and if they have to expand it to all politicians so be it.

Tax Code Reform is Necessary

In my effort to pass the test as a Tax Preparer, I had an epiphany.

The complexity of the tax code far exceeds the capacity of many people to comply with it.

And then they are angry at it because they think someone with more capacity is getting more out of it than they are.  And you know what, they are correct in that.  And you know who gets the most advantage out of the Tax Code, Property Developers and Hedge Fund employees.  The latter is well known because the Democrats campaigned on ending the carried interest exclusion, but Donald Trump likely hasn't paid much income tax on a lot of income because it is sheltered by the depreciation of his property.

That is why his desire to end the Estate Tax is outrageous.  When property passes to an heir, it is marked up to market value for tax purposes and can be depreciated all over again.  This is the ultimate legal game for avoiding taxes and Trump pursues it to the nth degree.  He doesn't pay much in taxes and he doesn't want his children to pay much in taxes on billions of $ of wealth.

So either the Estate Tax must remain to avoid this or something that I cannot figure out a fair way to do needs to be done about property depreciation for things that appreciate in value and are not owned by a corporation, but rather by partnerships.

Partnerships are also the big winner in the Kansas state tax reduction that has ruined their finances so we know this is a favorite trick of the GOP to reward their campaign supporters.

I am not optimistic about my preferred action coming to fruition in the GOP led Congress.

RINO For Revolution

I clearly got my medium wrong.  Instead of writing a blog on Google, I should have developed a Twitter following with the handle "Rino's For Revolution".

What would be the Revolution?  A government that operates in the middle with both sides listening to each other and working on policies that meet the needs of the people.  Instead we have a government that was elected by a minority of the people pursuing extreme policies that that the majority do not support.  Why the GOP was able to get a majority of the electoral votes is a complex subject that I have tried to address in other blogs but I am disgusted by the abandonment of principles illustrated the current representatives of the GOP.

I have been very busy getting ready to do tax preparation for the elderly and working poor and with my new part-time job working as bookkeeper for a non-profit, I read the newspaper, get disgusted but don't have time to rant here.

So here comes some quick comments on a variety of stuff that has been in the news.

ObamaCare

The Kaiser Foundation did a survey of Trump supporters and asked them what they wanted out of changes to the Health Insurance construct.  It turns out that this small group of people were almost unanimous in wanting a system where they get to keep their Doctors and don't have to shop for health insurance every year.  And they want the Health Insurance to be affordable.  That is not the Heritage Foundation/RomneyCare/ObamaCare construct.  It is a Single Payer Plan or Medicare for all.

So my recommendation for the Democrats is to protect Medicare, figure out how to make it sustainable financially, and run like hell on that platform.  If the Republicans want to gut ObamaCare in the short run, work to protect the uninsured in the replacement part and let the GOP hang out with whatever they actually propose. It may well take us closer to a public option for those who do not have employer paid health insurance.

I have decided that a public option would not cause massive layoffs in the private health insurance system all at one time because most people will still get their health insurance through their employers and many like the Medicare Advantage Plans which are run by the private health insurance companies.

Russian Hacking

It has been amazing to me that Trump is so wrapped up in himself.  Not that I didn't know that, but he has been elected President by a surplus of 100,000 votes spread across the key electoral states of PA, Ohio, Wisconsin and Michigan plus a few more in Florida.  I think those swing voters were motivated by his impractical economic message more than anything in the hacked emails but his reaction to the hacking news has been very defensive and show that he is very insecure in his ego.  Thus, his focus on always looking for boosts to that ego. He is one mean vindictive individual and we will see how he manages the challenges of running a government.  Does he delegate or want to be a King where everything runs through himself?

The one thing I want to worry about but cannot rationally is this ego maniac having his thumb on the nuclear trigger.  1st, he cares mostly about his wealth and there will be no wealth for him if there is a nuclear war.  2nd, his cozying up to Putin means they will be on the same page and not firing nuclear weapons at each other.

Of course the key question is when does Trump's affection for Putin start the impeachment proceedings against Trump.  It won't result in better policy because Pence is as conservative as any House Republican, but it would mean the end of this infatuation with Putin in the Administration.

Joe Biden Should Have Run

I saw an interview with Joe Biden.  I know why he didn't run but I think he would have had a message for those rural working class democrats who abandoned Hillary.  Of course, I am not sure how the primary's would have gone as Hillary had many Biden supporters locked up already.

I am Watching TV News.

Even though I know the papers tell me everything I really need to know, being a news junkie is a hard habit to quit.  I need more hobby's, but also need my 7 to 8 hours of sleep.

Happy New Year, it is going to be a rocky one.  The ironic thing is most of the people who will be hurt by GOP policies are the working poor in GOP governed states.  We will see if these people vote in the future after they are hurt by these GOP policies.