The Senate passed a budget. The House passed a budget. Normally, in a conference committee, the budgets are reconciled through a process of compromise with the end result being a budget that is in the middle. (Thus the name of this blog.)
However, we see in the news today that the House will not raise revenues, the Senate will not address entitlements until revenues can be included in the outcome and we will not have a grand bargain.
Meanwhile, the pressure to have grand bargain is waning as the fiscal deficit for 2013 will be 4.1% of GDP with further declines in store from the combination of 1% inflation and 2.0% economic growth. Throw in a little spending cuts as the sequester does and pretty soon the debt to GDP ratio will be stable and there will be no support from the less educated for addressing anything to do with Social Security, Medicare and Defense spending.
The window is fast closing on the opportunity for a Grand Bargain that will help the country with the generational challenge it faces in 10 to 30 years. Addressing it later will involve much more costly changes than addressing it today.
Once again, I am depressed that a conference committee cannot function as it ought to and the reasons come back to the Tea Party's hatred of compromise.
So even though I should vote for some GOP candidates in next week's local election (they do stand for what I believe in more than the Democratic candidates do), I will vote a straight Democratic ticket to send a message that no one who matters will hear.
Thursday, October 31, 2013
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Politics is the Art of the Possible
I apologize if I wrote this before.
Politicians want to be reelected or elected to higher office. To get there they need more votes than their opponent in 1st any primary and 2nd the general election. So they need to promote policies that get them a sufficient number of votes.
But once they are in office they have a responsibility to manage the political entity they are part of well. While they are doing so, they have to balance the need for responsible management with the need to keep getting votes in the next election cycle.
People want a well run government. They want the roads to be smooth, they want the bridges to not collapse, they want the police, fire and military to perform their responsibilities. They want a clean environment and they want equal opportunity for life liberty and happiness. And just to be clear, they want a functioning CDC, food inspection, air traffic control and their retirement benefits they paid into. And they want to be able to afford healthcare. Health insurance is an integral part of that and there is absolutely no reason why you should have to have employment to get access to group health insurance. No other insurance scheme works like that.
In other words, government is a complicated entity and politicians are elected to manage their slice of government well and make changes on the margin to move things in a better direction that they campaigned on. And they have to recognize that all politicians have a similar mission and compromise will be required so everyone can go home and win reelection as their thanks for running the government well.
If only Tea Party politicians could understand this.
Politicians want to be reelected or elected to higher office. To get there they need more votes than their opponent in 1st any primary and 2nd the general election. So they need to promote policies that get them a sufficient number of votes.
But once they are in office they have a responsibility to manage the political entity they are part of well. While they are doing so, they have to balance the need for responsible management with the need to keep getting votes in the next election cycle.
People want a well run government. They want the roads to be smooth, they want the bridges to not collapse, they want the police, fire and military to perform their responsibilities. They want a clean environment and they want equal opportunity for life liberty and happiness. And just to be clear, they want a functioning CDC, food inspection, air traffic control and their retirement benefits they paid into. And they want to be able to afford healthcare. Health insurance is an integral part of that and there is absolutely no reason why you should have to have employment to get access to group health insurance. No other insurance scheme works like that.
In other words, government is a complicated entity and politicians are elected to manage their slice of government well and make changes on the margin to move things in a better direction that they campaigned on. And they have to recognize that all politicians have a similar mission and compromise will be required so everyone can go home and win reelection as their thanks for running the government well.
If only Tea Party politicians could understand this.
Monday, October 28, 2013
The Realities of the US Fiscal Situation
I am quoting something here I have free subscription to for the moment through a friend, so I will not attribute any of it, but rest assured it is a respected international market analysis firm and this is all quotes from their recent writeup.
An informed and rational debate about fiscal priorities is impossible without the various sides first accepting the reality of the current situation. ....In the eyes of many opponents, the Republicans are portrayed as being in the pockets of the rich and the industrial military complex, while the Democrats are attacked for having a quasi-socialist agenda....These extreme views are exaggerations and act against achieving the compromise solutions that will be needed to deal the very real fiscal challenges.
The current situation.
1. U.S. government spending is not out of control at the moment: federal outlays as a % of GDP are in line with their historical average.
2. The U.S. has a small government by international standards: out of 21other industrialized countries, only 4 have lower government spending as a % of GDP; and the gap cannot be explained by the absence of a publicly-funded universal health care system in the U.S. (in other words, the U.S. spends less than most other countries after taking out what they spend on healthcare).
3. The U.S. health care system is hugely inefficient compared to other countries, judging by the massively higher spending and poorer health results. Obamacare may be flawed, but the previous status quo was unacceptable.
4. The U.S. is a low-tax country, but the system is distorted by a the lack of a national sales tax ("value added tax") forcing excessive reliance on income taxes.
5. The persistance of large fiscal deficits highlights the need for major reforms to both entitlements and taxes. However, politicians of all persuasions face the challenge that entitlement programs are very popular with voters.
I long for a reasonable debate on all these issues, but I don't see it happening as to do so would require legislators to educate the voters and acknowledge the validity of other points of view. I have no idea when that might happen.
An informed and rational debate about fiscal priorities is impossible without the various sides first accepting the reality of the current situation. ....In the eyes of many opponents, the Republicans are portrayed as being in the pockets of the rich and the industrial military complex, while the Democrats are attacked for having a quasi-socialist agenda....These extreme views are exaggerations and act against achieving the compromise solutions that will be needed to deal the very real fiscal challenges.
The current situation.
1. U.S. government spending is not out of control at the moment: federal outlays as a % of GDP are in line with their historical average.
2. The U.S. has a small government by international standards: out of 21other industrialized countries, only 4 have lower government spending as a % of GDP; and the gap cannot be explained by the absence of a publicly-funded universal health care system in the U.S. (in other words, the U.S. spends less than most other countries after taking out what they spend on healthcare).
3. The U.S. health care system is hugely inefficient compared to other countries, judging by the massively higher spending and poorer health results. Obamacare may be flawed, but the previous status quo was unacceptable.
4. The U.S. is a low-tax country, but the system is distorted by a the lack of a national sales tax ("value added tax") forcing excessive reliance on income taxes.
5. The persistance of large fiscal deficits highlights the need for major reforms to both entitlements and taxes. However, politicians of all persuasions face the challenge that entitlement programs are very popular with voters.
I long for a reasonable debate on all these issues, but I don't see it happening as to do so would require legislators to educate the voters and acknowledge the validity of other points of view. I have no idea when that might happen.
Sunday, October 27, 2013
Follow the $
In case you were wondering who bankrolls the politicians who led the charge on shutting down the government and threatening a technical default.
(1) The Koch Brothers, much of which has been written about. They are billionaires who made their money in Oil & Gas and no doubt are no fans of alternative energy or taxes on their income.
(2) Richard Stephenson, founder and chairman of the Cancer Treatment Centers of America, which somehow will suffer from the Affordable Health Care Act.
(3) Jackson Stephens, who runs a biotech firm and is of the Arkansas Stephens Inc Investment Bank family. No doubt he does not want to pay higher taxes either.
All these guys are billionaires and supply big %'s of Tea Party organization budgets and Tea Party politician fund raising.
(1) The Koch Brothers, much of which has been written about. They are billionaires who made their money in Oil & Gas and no doubt are no fans of alternative energy or taxes on their income.
(2) Richard Stephenson, founder and chairman of the Cancer Treatment Centers of America, which somehow will suffer from the Affordable Health Care Act.
(3) Jackson Stephens, who runs a biotech firm and is of the Arkansas Stephens Inc Investment Bank family. No doubt he does not want to pay higher taxes either.
All these guys are billionaires and supply big %'s of Tea Party organization budgets and Tea Party politician fund raising.
Thursday, October 24, 2013
I'm Mad and I am just gong to have keep taking it
because other than voting, I have no ability to not take it anymore. My apologies to readers who don't remember that movie line from 30 years ago.
I have been thinking about the Federal Gov't's botch up of the Federal Health Insurance portal. I have outlined some of the reasons in my last post, but the overriding reason is the exact reason the Heritage Foundation and the non-Tea Party GOP advocated the design of HeritageFoundation/Romney/Obamacare to be at the state level and involve the private insurance companies.
Now I realize that much of the programming complexity would be simplified by a Universal Health Insurance company because then there would be only one insurance company and the only issues would be choice of deductible and income verification for subsidy level. That is what we have with Medicare so Medicare For All is my preferred solution.
But that is not going to happen soon because if it were, it would have been done in 2010 and it wasn't.
So, why did the GOP want Romney/Obamacare to operate at the state level. Because insurance is state regulated and building a single state website is much easier than building a national website for many states. The USA is a big country and things work better when decision making is pushed down. But with so many states being unwilling to expand health insurance (??? why do they feel that way??? - it makes no sense to me to be anti-abortion and then anti making sure that every child has health insurance), the Federal government had to built a national website.
I am from the private sector and if I were in charge of this starting in 2010, I would have said let's get this thing going and test it to find the bugs ASAP. New computer systems always have bugs and bugs can be serious inhibitors to customer service. Who ever was in charge of this has #$%^& it up and should be fired and, if no one is in charge, the person who failed to put someone in charge should be fired.
The President has many issues to balance during any single day, but President Obama should have least asked, "Who is in charge of this thing? It has to work well." So he is accountable for that much and Kathy Sebelius, as a former health insurance administrator, should definitely known to ask the questions and she is accountable for that. And certainly an undersecretary to Sebelius should have known to ask the question and should be accountable for that.
Any why were there so many different contractors? I admit I don't understand big system technology and I know all these contractors exist for a fundamental economic purpose as they are very successful businesses.
I am also mad a the Tea Party. Our insane budget process is harming job growth and stopping the Fed from normalizing monetary policy. Economic institutes estimate that employment is 900,000 to 1,500,000 jobs lower than it would be otherwise because of stupidity in fiscal policy. So when we get finished with the harm from overly steep declines in Fiscal Policy, we will potentially need a sudden reversal of monetary policy and that will not be good for retiree savings as asset values will need to reflect slower growth for longer. And bonds will not be a safe haven on a mark-to-market basis.
That makes me Mad and I wish I didn't have to take it anymore.
I have been thinking about the Federal Gov't's botch up of the Federal Health Insurance portal. I have outlined some of the reasons in my last post, but the overriding reason is the exact reason the Heritage Foundation and the non-Tea Party GOP advocated the design of HeritageFoundation/Romney/Obamacare to be at the state level and involve the private insurance companies.
Now I realize that much of the programming complexity would be simplified by a Universal Health Insurance company because then there would be only one insurance company and the only issues would be choice of deductible and income verification for subsidy level. That is what we have with Medicare so Medicare For All is my preferred solution.
But that is not going to happen soon because if it were, it would have been done in 2010 and it wasn't.
So, why did the GOP want Romney/Obamacare to operate at the state level. Because insurance is state regulated and building a single state website is much easier than building a national website for many states. The USA is a big country and things work better when decision making is pushed down. But with so many states being unwilling to expand health insurance (??? why do they feel that way??? - it makes no sense to me to be anti-abortion and then anti making sure that every child has health insurance), the Federal government had to built a national website.
I am from the private sector and if I were in charge of this starting in 2010, I would have said let's get this thing going and test it to find the bugs ASAP. New computer systems always have bugs and bugs can be serious inhibitors to customer service. Who ever was in charge of this has #$%^& it up and should be fired and, if no one is in charge, the person who failed to put someone in charge should be fired.
The President has many issues to balance during any single day, but President Obama should have least asked, "Who is in charge of this thing? It has to work well." So he is accountable for that much and Kathy Sebelius, as a former health insurance administrator, should definitely known to ask the questions and she is accountable for that. And certainly an undersecretary to Sebelius should have known to ask the question and should be accountable for that.
Any why were there so many different contractors? I admit I don't understand big system technology and I know all these contractors exist for a fundamental economic purpose as they are very successful businesses.
I am also mad a the Tea Party. Our insane budget process is harming job growth and stopping the Fed from normalizing monetary policy. Economic institutes estimate that employment is 900,000 to 1,500,000 jobs lower than it would be otherwise because of stupidity in fiscal policy. So when we get finished with the harm from overly steep declines in Fiscal Policy, we will potentially need a sudden reversal of monetary policy and that will not be good for retiree savings as asset values will need to reflect slower growth for longer. And bonds will not be a safe haven on a mark-to-market basis.
That makes me Mad and I wish I didn't have to take it anymore.
Monday, October 21, 2013
The Government's Technology Hurdles
I will not do this justice, but I spent the weekend with a friend who works on Internet Security for NY State. His team works on making sure that when you log in to a state website, your identity can be confirmed and everything to do with you is kept confidential. Needless to say, his team is working on implementing Obamacare in NY. He knows where the contractors need to place continued focus to help improve the system, which is working fairly well in NY, but could be better.
He shared a tech magazine article with me that highlighted the challenges the Federal website faces. The government systems still work through Windows 2003. I don't know how many iterations of Windows there have been since 2003, but I can think of at least 2 and know that if you don't keep up with stuff like that, you run into problems that will not be fixed until you get yourself onto a modern platform.
Why is the Federal government still using Windows 2003? Well it starts with Bush II's starving the government of revenues through tax cuts. Neither he nor the Congress allocated enough money to keep the government's operating systems modern. Then the recession hit and bigger macroeconomic issues dominated the focus. Then sequestration started and the revenues for such projects were cut further. So, Bush, Obama and the Congress share responsibility for the mess that the Federal Government's computer systems are in. Yes, many of them work, but they are not being updated the way the private sector or even many states do.
It is not encouraging to know this as no organization can function today without up to date technology. This is not just effecting the Obamacare websit, but also national defense. Somehow the NSA is not effected, so perhaps they should work on the rest of the government.
He shared a tech magazine article with me that highlighted the challenges the Federal website faces. The government systems still work through Windows 2003. I don't know how many iterations of Windows there have been since 2003, but I can think of at least 2 and know that if you don't keep up with stuff like that, you run into problems that will not be fixed until you get yourself onto a modern platform.
Why is the Federal government still using Windows 2003? Well it starts with Bush II's starving the government of revenues through tax cuts. Neither he nor the Congress allocated enough money to keep the government's operating systems modern. Then the recession hit and bigger macroeconomic issues dominated the focus. Then sequestration started and the revenues for such projects were cut further. So, Bush, Obama and the Congress share responsibility for the mess that the Federal Government's computer systems are in. Yes, many of them work, but they are not being updated the way the private sector or even many states do.
It is not encouraging to know this as no organization can function today without up to date technology. This is not just effecting the Obamacare websit, but also national defense. Somehow the NSA is not effected, so perhaps they should work on the rest of the government.
Tuesday, October 15, 2013
Government Default Investment Advice
I have no @#$%^&* idea what the House GOP will do and I do expect, once the markets react, they will pass the laws necessary to restart the government and debt issuance/roll over.
At work (at my little Emerging Market Hedge Fund) instead of discussing whether the Ukraine will soon be in a currency crisis or knuckling under to Putin in return for a financial lifeline, we are discussing how the US government will actually roll its existing debt if there is no increase in the debt limit. Treasuries, like all bonds, settle 3 days after issuance. The issue is, if you are at the debt limit and need to pay off some Treasury Bills in 3 days, the issuance of Treasury Bills today to have the cash in 3 days will push you over the debt limit for the 3 days until you pay down the maturing debt.
So you cannot have the cash to pay the maturing Treasury Bills unless you don't pay other invoices and raise the cash to pay the maturing debt that way. But not paying those invoices will be a default on timely payment of those Congressionally authorized payments. And it will include payments to Veterans and Dr's and Social Security and Defense Contractors and .... and .... and... you get the picture. Also, the Government's computers are not set up to pay things that way.
Now I cannot for certain tell you to sell your US assets because they may not plummet in price expecting the Congress to do the right thing. And Congress can do the right thing in about 48 hours. But if Congress does not do the right thing, selling those assets will have created a fantastic opportunity to maintain and improve your wealth.
Being a person with little current income at this time (startup hedge funds don't pay all that well), I need to know I have access to my cash savings. So I moved 6 months of cash from my money market fund to my insured bank just in case there is some hiccup in the payments system. I don't expect that and I cannot think of a reason the payments system will shut down, but the US government is a lot bigger than Lehman Brothers and a failure to pay has the potential to disrupt the payments system. Maybe I should stash many thousands of dollars in cash into my mattress, but then my bank would (a) not have the cash and (b) would report me to the DEA.
Perhaps any readers in Argentina could give all of us some advice by posting comments. I would appreciate any advice before Thursday.
At work (at my little Emerging Market Hedge Fund) instead of discussing whether the Ukraine will soon be in a currency crisis or knuckling under to Putin in return for a financial lifeline, we are discussing how the US government will actually roll its existing debt if there is no increase in the debt limit. Treasuries, like all bonds, settle 3 days after issuance. The issue is, if you are at the debt limit and need to pay off some Treasury Bills in 3 days, the issuance of Treasury Bills today to have the cash in 3 days will push you over the debt limit for the 3 days until you pay down the maturing debt.
So you cannot have the cash to pay the maturing Treasury Bills unless you don't pay other invoices and raise the cash to pay the maturing debt that way. But not paying those invoices will be a default on timely payment of those Congressionally authorized payments. And it will include payments to Veterans and Dr's and Social Security and Defense Contractors and .... and .... and... you get the picture. Also, the Government's computers are not set up to pay things that way.
Now I cannot for certain tell you to sell your US assets because they may not plummet in price expecting the Congress to do the right thing. And Congress can do the right thing in about 48 hours. But if Congress does not do the right thing, selling those assets will have created a fantastic opportunity to maintain and improve your wealth.
Being a person with little current income at this time (startup hedge funds don't pay all that well), I need to know I have access to my cash savings. So I moved 6 months of cash from my money market fund to my insured bank just in case there is some hiccup in the payments system. I don't expect that and I cannot think of a reason the payments system will shut down, but the US government is a lot bigger than Lehman Brothers and a failure to pay has the potential to disrupt the payments system. Maybe I should stash many thousands of dollars in cash into my mattress, but then my bank would (a) not have the cash and (b) would report me to the DEA.
Perhaps any readers in Argentina could give all of us some advice by posting comments. I would appreciate any advice before Thursday.
Michael Gerson on a Conservatism I might agree with
Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street Merge
If you doubt it, look at the behavior of the Million Vet March Sunday which had about a 1000 people.
Link to M.Gerson article
If you doubt it, look at the behavior of the Million Vet March Sunday which had about a 1000 people.
Link to M.Gerson article
Monday, October 14, 2013
How ObamaCare is controlling costs
This is a must read for anyone who wants to understand why HeritageFoundationRomneyObamaCare is preferable to a Universal Health Insurance Plan. I still prefer the latter but have to admit the power of the market place with dispersed decisions that create good process from the bottom up is more tolerated by the masses than top down edicts.
Did you know that the sickest 1% of patients account for 21% of the total health care bill and the sickest 5% account for 50% of the total bill?
Link to article
Did you know that the sickest 1% of patients account for 21% of the total health care bill and the sickest 5% account for 50% of the total bill?
Link to article
Sunday, October 13, 2013
Why are we where we are?
Apparently the unthinkable (U.S. default by failure to make timely payments) may happen and Ross Douthat explains how the GOP went down this unconscionable path.
Ross Douthat
I will not be commenting further on the GOP until they become a serious political party.
I will however point out to the Democrats that, however understandable certain decisions in the past were deemed wise, the failure to make the internet portal experience a smooth one for those interested in obtaining Health Insurance through the Federal Health Insurance Website is a serious flaw and highlights why the GOP will have a valid argument that the private sector or the States need to run health insurance. The States that did their own websites don't have a problem, why does the Federal website? Someone needs to be accountable for the #$%^ up and fixing it!
Ross Douthat
I will not be commenting further on the GOP until they become a serious political party.
I will however point out to the Democrats that, however understandable certain decisions in the past were deemed wise, the failure to make the internet portal experience a smooth one for those interested in obtaining Health Insurance through the Federal Health Insurance Website is a serious flaw and highlights why the GOP will have a valid argument that the private sector or the States need to run health insurance. The States that did their own websites don't have a problem, why does the Federal website? Someone needs to be accountable for the #$%^ up and fixing it!
Saturday, October 12, 2013
Why Does it have to be so personal?
I will admit that I think societies should plan on just moving on from national psychosis of tragic events. But I know that for some people that is important to them, particularly if they lost loved ones in the tragic event. So I stifle my urge to tell them to just get over it and go about my business quietly on those days.
This morning I find out that the Citizens Committee for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms and the Second Amendment Foundation want to declare 12/14 as "Guns Save Life's Day". 12/14 is the anniversary date of the Newtown, CT elementary school massacre in which 21 1st Graders were killed.
Why would an NRA type organization pick a day like that? That is the equivalent of Al Qaeda celebrating 9/11 as a holiday. Are we all Americans or what? Can't there be any respect for another person's point of view no matter how different it is from yours? This seems to be a very personal vendetta on the part of these NRA organizations and I don't understand their motivations. The organizer said he doesn't plan events in Newtown, but he doesn't control what his supporters do.
This morning I find out that the Citizens Committee for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms and the Second Amendment Foundation want to declare 12/14 as "Guns Save Life's Day". 12/14 is the anniversary date of the Newtown, CT elementary school massacre in which 21 1st Graders were killed.
Why would an NRA type organization pick a day like that? That is the equivalent of Al Qaeda celebrating 9/11 as a holiday. Are we all Americans or what? Can't there be any respect for another person's point of view no matter how different it is from yours? This seems to be a very personal vendetta on the part of these NRA organizations and I don't understand their motivations. The organizer said he doesn't plan events in Newtown, but he doesn't control what his supporters do.
Friday, October 11, 2013
GOP Dishonesty With Their Base
The Tea Party leaders in Congress make it seem like their demands can be reasonably met. And they use outright lies and exaggeration to make their case against what the Democrats stand for.
As an example of the latter, today Dr. Ben Carson, a rising African-American political figure, said ObamaCare is the the worst thing to happen in the USA since slavery. Why, because it makes us all subservient to the government. Well excuse me, but from my point of view having to buy health insurance is no different than having to buy car insurance. We all need it someday. It is no different from paying social security taxes. If we live, we will collect. And it is no different from paying taxes. We all do it.
Would he make paying property taxes optional? Would he make paying Social Security taxes optional? Would he make car insurance optional? If so, then make the case for that in addition to fighting ObamaCare! Then at least the supporters of the Tea Party could see the whole logical conclusion to what they stand for and make a judgment if that is what they really believe.
By the way, I saw a poll early this week and if you eliminate those who are over 65 who don't like ObamaCare, a majority of the population is in favor of it. So the rabble rousing over ObamaCare is really coming from people who are covered by Medicare and receiving Social Security.
So if the GOP were really honest with the elderly, they would say we need to change the rules so that Social Security and Medicare will be there for you, your children's and your grandchildren's whole life. But instead, on the campaign trail, they say no change for the elderly, but we want to dismantle this for future generations without explaining what will replace the current system. So just like they want to do nothing to make health insurance affordable for all, they want to end the elderly social safety net. But they dress that up in language supporting supposed individual rights without telling people what they really want.
And while the GOP wants to make everybody receiving food stamps to work (never mind if they are elderly or 5 years old) and claim unemployment insurance inhibits people from wanting to work, they refuse to reopen the government while they have agreed to pay the furloughed workers all their missing compensation they have foregone while not working. How does that make sense?
It makes it hard for me to believe that I once voted for mostly Republican candidates, because I can't imagine voting for one today.
As an example of the latter, today Dr. Ben Carson, a rising African-American political figure, said ObamaCare is the the worst thing to happen in the USA since slavery. Why, because it makes us all subservient to the government. Well excuse me, but from my point of view having to buy health insurance is no different than having to buy car insurance. We all need it someday. It is no different from paying social security taxes. If we live, we will collect. And it is no different from paying taxes. We all do it.
Would he make paying property taxes optional? Would he make paying Social Security taxes optional? Would he make car insurance optional? If so, then make the case for that in addition to fighting ObamaCare! Then at least the supporters of the Tea Party could see the whole logical conclusion to what they stand for and make a judgment if that is what they really believe.
By the way, I saw a poll early this week and if you eliminate those who are over 65 who don't like ObamaCare, a majority of the population is in favor of it. So the rabble rousing over ObamaCare is really coming from people who are covered by Medicare and receiving Social Security.
So if the GOP were really honest with the elderly, they would say we need to change the rules so that Social Security and Medicare will be there for you, your children's and your grandchildren's whole life. But instead, on the campaign trail, they say no change for the elderly, but we want to dismantle this for future generations without explaining what will replace the current system. So just like they want to do nothing to make health insurance affordable for all, they want to end the elderly social safety net. But they dress that up in language supporting supposed individual rights without telling people what they really want.
And while the GOP wants to make everybody receiving food stamps to work (never mind if they are elderly or 5 years old) and claim unemployment insurance inhibits people from wanting to work, they refuse to reopen the government while they have agreed to pay the furloughed workers all their missing compensation they have foregone while not working. How does that make sense?
It makes it hard for me to believe that I once voted for mostly Republican candidates, because I can't imagine voting for one today.
Thursday, October 10, 2013
Tea Party 40 = Maoist Gang of 4
Another well phrased presentation of how undemocratic and authoritarian the House Tea Party is.
I wish I could write this well
I wish I could write this well
It is Class warfare at one level
But before we get to that, I must comment here on RedStateVT's bemoaning that an uninsured woman with a 2 year old child obtained Health Insurance through ObamaCare. I celebrate that an uninsured person now has affordable access to health care without using an ER and pushing the cost onto the insured. He wonders where the father is and is upset that this woman will vote for Democrats forever. I think that presumes a bit much. If you don't know the woman, you can make no presumptions about her. Perhaps the father died in Afghanistan. Perhaps the father is in jail. Perhaps he has a minimum wage job without health insurance.
There are many motivations and belief's in the conservatives who actively oppose everything Obama wants to do just as there are many motivations and belief's in the people who support Obama. Remember I am a Conservative Democrat who use to be a Liberal Republican. The difference between my beliefs and those of today's GOP is that I believe in a functioning government, a safety net for the population, and protection of my definition of individual rights (until the Tea Party I had no idea how broad that concept could be).
We have delved into the role of unlimited money in politics before but Charles Blow (who drives RedStateVT batty, as does apparently NBC News which is a lot more objective than FoxNews).
I put the link here and then will quote the column.
Some Rich Conduct Class War
Earlier this year, John Boehner hashed out a deal with Harry Reid — or at least had “several” conversations about a deal — in which the Democrats would accept the Republicans’ budget numbers ($70 billion below what the Democrats wanted) in return for the speaker’s voting on a continuing resolution with no strings attached.
There are many motivations and belief's in the conservatives who actively oppose everything Obama wants to do just as there are many motivations and belief's in the people who support Obama. Remember I am a Conservative Democrat who use to be a Liberal Republican. The difference between my beliefs and those of today's GOP is that I believe in a functioning government, a safety net for the population, and protection of my definition of individual rights (until the Tea Party I had no idea how broad that concept could be).
We have delved into the role of unlimited money in politics before but Charles Blow (who drives RedStateVT batty, as does apparently NBC News which is a lot more objective than FoxNews).
I put the link here and then will quote the column.
Some Rich Conduct Class War
Earlier this year, John Boehner hashed out a deal with Harry Reid — or at least had “several” conversations about a deal — in which the Democrats would accept the Republicans’ budget numbers ($70 billion below what the Democrats wanted) in return for the speaker’s voting on a continuing resolution with no strings attached.
The Republicans had won. But the speaker later reneged. He told George Stephanopoulos this weekend: “I and my members decided the threat of Obamacare and what was happening was so important that it was time for us to take a stand. And we took a stand.”
To be clear, his far-right members in their bright red districts — and their deep-pocketed backers — forced him to reconsider.
Boehner is fighting his own battle — for his job and his legacy. He wants to appear in control of a caucus that is uncontrollable. The man who said last week of the government shutdown, “this isn’t some damn game,” is playing games. In fact, Politico reported Tuesday that many Republicans believe a massive budget deal is the best way to solve the current crisis, but Boehner has resisted, saying he wants to “put points on the board.”
The president, for his part, has deployed a list of metaphors as long as his arm to describe the Republicans — from hostage takers to deadbeat homeowners — to get more of the public to understand his principle of not negotiating on keeping the government open or paying the government’s bills. He wants to break the crisis cycle while simultaneously defending the Affordable Care Act. He wants to rescue the government from the clutches of the nihilists.
But many Americans are too frustrated to ferret out the details. They see dysfunction in the system as a whole and they’re fed up with it.
According to a Gallup poll released Wednesday, a third of Americans now cite dysfunctional government as the most important problem facing America today. That was the highest level ever recorded by Gallup, whose trend on the measure dates back to 1939, and dysfunction now ranks higher than the economy in general or unemployment and jobs in particular.
This is not a “both sides at fault” issue. It is a tremendously partisan one.
And according to the Pew Research Center, 77 percent of Republicans believe the president should agree to a deal that includes changes in his health care law, and 75 percent of Democrats believe that Republicans should agree to a deal with no health care changes. Independents are nearly evenly divided between the two.
Now the shutdown is beginning to bleed into the debate about whether to raise the debt limit, a debate that has brought out the Republican default deniers to further muddy the waters.
The government shutdown, as costly and futile as it is, would look like child’s play compared with a default.
According to a Tuesday report in Bloomberg/Businessweek, one global market research firm estimates that the government shutdown “cost $1.6 billion last week in lost economic output” and “the office closures are now draining an average of $160 million each workday from the $15.7 trillion economy.”
And if you think this is bad, consider that a default could trigger a full-blown recession. In a Wednesday report, CNN quoted the International Monetary Fund economist Olivier Blanchard as saying: “If there was a problem lifting the debt ceiling, it could well be what is now a recovery would turn into a recession or even worse.”
And yet, a growing number of Republicans are questioning the possibility of default. Unbelievable.
Some Republicans have never met an inconvenient fact that they weren’t determined to deny. Evolution: didn’t happen. Climate change: not so much. Obama’s faith: doubt it.
In some parts of the Republican universe, facts and fantasy merge, the truth doesn’t surface, it’s shaped, data must be made to conform to doxology, and accepted science borders on the heretical. This is how the money-rich are able to prey on the knowledge-poor.
This denial is sinking in among the Republican rank and file. A Pew Research Center report issued Monday found that most Republicans believe that we can go past the debt limit deadline without major problems.
This is bigger than Obamacare. This is about rich conservatives seeking to exert unlimited influence on our political system, and employing far-right Republicans who are animated, to varying degrees, by an innate hostility to this president, fear of diminishing influence and a disavowal of disagreeable truths.
This is about the fragility of our democracy: the possibility that a government by the people may swiftly give way to a government dominated by dark money and dark motives.
It is difficult to fathom why the country is in its current position. It is impossible for me to know how best to position a bond portfolio. And if a professional bond manager doesn't know what to do because the GOP believes default is a viable option, then the world is certainly turned upside down because I thought the GOP was the party that supported business, was conservative and believed in the sanctity of contract obligations. Oh, wait a minute, Donald Trump, the King of Defaulting on Contracts, is a Tea Party supporter.
Wednesday, October 9, 2013
Musings on the Current New Republic Magazine
I strongly urge my readers to subscribe to the New Republic. It needs you and you will get balanced views (in the traditional sense not the Fox News way) of the goings on in Washington and elsewhere, you will get to read Leon Wieseltier for a traditional support of Israel on issues they are dealing with and in the middle you will find outstanding intellectual content on the Arts and the odd other things they delve into.
This week it is the Publishing Industry and the books. I could not read all of it, but if you enjoy books and want to understand the world of books, go to your Newsstand and buy the October 21st issue. Or you can subscribe to the New Republic on-line, but I am generally a man of paper.
In this issue, there were some compelling observations.
1st: Why do people deny science? They present a cultural theorist view of the world. People who distrust global warming are not stupid, it is their framework that is different. If you want to communicate with them, you have to do so in a way that presents your argument within their framework. The framework contrasts Hierarchical vs Egalitarian and Individualist vs Communitarian. They place the critical political issues into the quadrants. If you are Communitarian/Egalitarian, you are concerned about climate change. If you are Hierarchical/Individualist, you are more concerned with government intrusion than climate change. Attacking peoples thought process will not convince them, it will only antagonize them. Ways need to be found to present the arguments in their framework so they agree something should be done.
2nd: The minimum wage should support a poverty level of living, not 72% of a poverty wage. While this may cut down employment on the margin, it will also increase the wages of those working at the minimum wage, which will give them more to spend on necessities (being at the poverty level), which will increase the demand for some things and the need for more employment. So balance, it would be better to have the people working be at least at the poverty level rather than at 72% of poverty. The article says it much better than I just did.
3rd: We need the NSA. Cyber-attacks are both a reality and an inevitability. Only the NSA has the where-with-all to protect us. US is for the most part major companies in the US who employ large numbers of people and for whom technology has produced greater efficiency and consumer convenience. I for one, do not want some cyber terrorist to disrupt my use of the internet. And that is on a temporary basis, what if they were successful for an extended period of time.
4th: The Taliban and the Tea Party have certain things in common. They believe in conspiracies. They believe that they have the only correct policies. They believe in running non-believers out of their organization and anyone who compromises is a non-believer.
and I have yet to get to everything on books.
Please subscribe. They need you.
This week it is the Publishing Industry and the books. I could not read all of it, but if you enjoy books and want to understand the world of books, go to your Newsstand and buy the October 21st issue. Or you can subscribe to the New Republic on-line, but I am generally a man of paper.
In this issue, there were some compelling observations.
1st: Why do people deny science? They present a cultural theorist view of the world. People who distrust global warming are not stupid, it is their framework that is different. If you want to communicate with them, you have to do so in a way that presents your argument within their framework. The framework contrasts Hierarchical vs Egalitarian and Individualist vs Communitarian. They place the critical political issues into the quadrants. If you are Communitarian/Egalitarian, you are concerned about climate change. If you are Hierarchical/Individualist, you are more concerned with government intrusion than climate change. Attacking peoples thought process will not convince them, it will only antagonize them. Ways need to be found to present the arguments in their framework so they agree something should be done.
2nd: The minimum wage should support a poverty level of living, not 72% of a poverty wage. While this may cut down employment on the margin, it will also increase the wages of those working at the minimum wage, which will give them more to spend on necessities (being at the poverty level), which will increase the demand for some things and the need for more employment. So balance, it would be better to have the people working be at least at the poverty level rather than at 72% of poverty. The article says it much better than I just did.
3rd: We need the NSA. Cyber-attacks are both a reality and an inevitability. Only the NSA has the where-with-all to protect us. US is for the most part major companies in the US who employ large numbers of people and for whom technology has produced greater efficiency and consumer convenience. I for one, do not want some cyber terrorist to disrupt my use of the internet. And that is on a temporary basis, what if they were successful for an extended period of time.
4th: The Taliban and the Tea Party have certain things in common. They believe in conspiracies. They believe that they have the only correct policies. They believe in running non-believers out of their organization and anyone who compromises is a non-believer.
and I have yet to get to everything on books.
Please subscribe. They need you.
Tuesday, October 8, 2013
We take a break from our regularly scheduled program
to discuss a few things from the back of recent Economist magazines.
Unfortunately, I have learned a lot about cancer over the past 2 years. The Economist reviewed in 9/14 issue two books on how the science is coming to understand cancer. It is not just progress from the Human Genome program or other DNA research, it involves other aspects of science as well. Some Dinosaur fossils had cancers. Mammals get more cancer than reptiles who get more than amphibians.
The complexity of cancer is being unraveled at a slow but steady pace and DNA mapping of tumors is coming up with amazing facts and understandings.
The good news is more people survive after having their cancer found. The bad news is we all die and some die sooner because of cancer. Interestingly, some things like the Chernobyl radiation release have not pushed up the cancer rate significantly. The only thing we can do is (i) not smoke (30% of cancers are smoking related) and (ii) don't be fat and lazy (obesity is another 20%) and (iii) eat a mixed and balanced diet (bad diet causes between 10% to 25% of cancers).
Panda's have a microbes in their gut that help them digest bamboo. If able to be replicated outside their digestive tract, these microbes could help produce biofuels and renewable energy.
The Private Sector does not fund research like this because it does not help next quarters earnings. It only happens with the support of the Government.
Paul Collier has written a book about immigration. Migration makes migrants better off or they would not be migrants. Countries that where migrants settle are better off unless they threaten the cultural cohesion, but too few immigrants inhibits a country because diverse countries are more successful. Poor countries from which migrants come from benefit from remittances and ideas being sent back unless all the educated people leave. The U.S. is almost 100% immigrants and is the poster child for the benefits of migration.
Unfortunately, I have learned a lot about cancer over the past 2 years. The Economist reviewed in 9/14 issue two books on how the science is coming to understand cancer. It is not just progress from the Human Genome program or other DNA research, it involves other aspects of science as well. Some Dinosaur fossils had cancers. Mammals get more cancer than reptiles who get more than amphibians.
The complexity of cancer is being unraveled at a slow but steady pace and DNA mapping of tumors is coming up with amazing facts and understandings.
The good news is more people survive after having their cancer found. The bad news is we all die and some die sooner because of cancer. Interestingly, some things like the Chernobyl radiation release have not pushed up the cancer rate significantly. The only thing we can do is (i) not smoke (30% of cancers are smoking related) and (ii) don't be fat and lazy (obesity is another 20%) and (iii) eat a mixed and balanced diet (bad diet causes between 10% to 25% of cancers).
Panda's have a microbes in their gut that help them digest bamboo. If able to be replicated outside their digestive tract, these microbes could help produce biofuels and renewable energy.
The Private Sector does not fund research like this because it does not help next quarters earnings. It only happens with the support of the Government.
Paul Collier has written a book about immigration. Migration makes migrants better off or they would not be migrants. Countries that where migrants settle are better off unless they threaten the cultural cohesion, but too few immigrants inhibits a country because diverse countries are more successful. Poor countries from which migrants come from benefit from remittances and ideas being sent back unless all the educated people leave. The U.S. is almost 100% immigrants and is the poster child for the benefits of migration.
Monday, October 7, 2013
Short Quips
Now that the House of Representatives has voted 407-0 to pay the furloughed federal workers for doing nothing, how can the GOP support requiring people receiving welfare and food stamps to work? I never did understand the food stamp work requirement. Most families on food stamps have someone in the family working and not making very much money or they are elderly and living on social security. Are we going to make an 83 old widow go to work for her food stamps?
From Paul Krugman today:
"It has been obvious for years that the modern Republican Party is no longer capable of thinking seriously about policy. Whether the issue is climate change or inflation, party members believe what they want to believe, and any contrary evidence is dismissed as a hoax, the product of vast liberal conspiracies."
From Paul Krugman today:
"It has been obvious for years that the modern Republican Party is no longer capable of thinking seriously about policy. Whether the issue is climate change or inflation, party members believe what they want to believe, and any contrary evidence is dismissed as a hoax, the product of vast liberal conspiracies."
Sunday, October 6, 2013
Incoherent Policy
A front page story reveals that the strategy to shut down the government was designed by David Koch (Koch Brothers), Edwin Meese III and leaders of more than 36 conservative groups. They absolutely want to shut down ObamaCare and advocate using government shutdown and not making timely payments (default) as reasonable strategies. Saying NO to such undemocratic means is the only reasonable path for the Democrats to take. There can be no compromise with such precedent. ObamaCare passed as a separate law and should be discussed as a separate law. The creditworthiness of the US is not negotiable.
Then an inside story reveals Jeff Epperson, seller of confederate flags outside a civil war battlefield, and a flag flying member of the Tea Party. He should live in New Hampshire because he flies a "Don't Tread On Me" flag. I feel like that towards members of the Tea Party, and I am sure the Democrats and moderate Republicans in New Hampshire agree with me. Anyway, if his Congressman caves on the shutdown without a change in ObamaCare, he is going to vote for a more conservative candidate in the next GOP Primary, even though his current Congressman is Tom Graves, a designer of the shutdown the government if we don't defund ObamaCare plan. Mr. Epperson is not a clear thinker about the democratic process.
Then another story reveals that GOP Congressman are busy blasting out emails saying they funded the National Institute of Health ("Science is a gift"), the Defense Department and SNAP, while not funding other stuff. Not to mention the 407-0 vote to pay government workers for doing nothing. That is what Conservatives say happens with welfare and food stamps, and they want to change that. Well, they could start by bring the paid, but non-working, Federal Employees back to work!
I see no coherency in the GOP and it is very hard to negotiate with an incoherent opposition. Until the Tea Party is cut loose from the Budget Discussions, there can be no Grand Bargain. Let's hope we get there before the government runs out of money in late October.
The Same Idea said Better
And for those who don't want to click on the Link, I paste the opening below:
"Suppose President Obama announced:
Then an inside story reveals Jeff Epperson, seller of confederate flags outside a civil war battlefield, and a flag flying member of the Tea Party. He should live in New Hampshire because he flies a "Don't Tread On Me" flag. I feel like that towards members of the Tea Party, and I am sure the Democrats and moderate Republicans in New Hampshire agree with me. Anyway, if his Congressman caves on the shutdown without a change in ObamaCare, he is going to vote for a more conservative candidate in the next GOP Primary, even though his current Congressman is Tom Graves, a designer of the shutdown the government if we don't defund ObamaCare plan. Mr. Epperson is not a clear thinker about the democratic process.
Then another story reveals that GOP Congressman are busy blasting out emails saying they funded the National Institute of Health ("Science is a gift"), the Defense Department and SNAP, while not funding other stuff. Not to mention the 407-0 vote to pay government workers for doing nothing. That is what Conservatives say happens with welfare and food stamps, and they want to change that. Well, they could start by bring the paid, but non-working, Federal Employees back to work!
I see no coherency in the GOP and it is very hard to negotiate with an incoherent opposition. Until the Tea Party is cut loose from the Budget Discussions, there can be no Grand Bargain. Let's hope we get there before the government runs out of money in late October.
The Same Idea said Better
And for those who don't want to click on the Link, I paste the opening below:
"Suppose President Obama announced:
Unless Republicans agree to my proposal for gun control, I will use my authority as commander in chief to scuttle one aircraft carrier a week in the bottom of the ocean.
I invite Republican leaders to come to the White House and negotiate a deal to preserve our military strength. I hope Republicans will work with me to prevent the loss of our carrier fleet.
If the Republicans refuse to negotiate, I will be compelled to begin by scuttling the U.S.S. George Washington in the Pacific Ocean’s Mariana Trench, with 80 aircraft on board.
In that situation, we would all agree that Obama had gone nuts. Whatever his beefs with Republicans, it would be an inexcusable betrayal to try to get his way by destroying our national assets. That would be an abuse of power and the worst kind of blackmail."
Saturday, October 5, 2013
Back to the Middle (except on the propriety of tyranny by the minority)
1st of all Joe Nocera's column this morning highlights the need for proper scientific review of everything related to the environment and reveals a detailed study that shows fracking does not release high levels of methane into the atmosphere and contribute inordinately to global warming. If only the anti-global warming people required their science to be as well reviewed by peers as these guys did.
Joe Nocera's Column
When done safely for the local water supply, fracking is in the national interest because we send fewer $ to the sheiks who fund Al Qaeda. It is also a self-reliant way to develop better batteries and non-fossil fuel methods for producing electricity in a gradual way. It also reduces our Current Account Deficit so we sell fewer bonds to foreigners. Fracking is good when ground water is protected and that is essential and is done 99.x% of the time. Cabot, which fouled water in PA through carelessness, will be paying a long time for fouling ground water.
2nd, China is on it's way to changing its GDP growth drivers in a gradual way. No more can it be export led and Current Account Surplus driven. It needs to be domestically oriented and they know it. This will be good for Chinese securities and I am holding onto my Golden Eagle bonds. Hank Paulson rises from the disrespect he received for inventing TARP which saved the country from a depression.
Hank Paulson's OP-Ed
I decided yesterday the only way out of this %^&*'ing mess in the Congress is to fold the authorized spending of the government into the debt ceiling. While failing to authorize spending already authorized by previous votes (why is that necessary?) to get something is tyranny by a minority and I cannot support that, there is precedent for budget negotiations during debt ceiling debates. There is a story in the NYT that that is what the voters of Iowa who elect Tea Party leader Steve King are really concerned about. What Iowa voter's really think
But within that is the core problem for the GOP. Doing something about spending means addressing Social Security and Medicare. I support some level of means testing in Medicare and the change in the inflation measure in Social Security (the current one is tied to wage rates, not inflation directly, and includes compensation for higher productivity. You can even fiddle with age eligibility a little.
But as Susan Collins points out, the GOP noticed somewhere since George Bush II was President, that a lot of their voters think social security and medicare are their right, do not come from the Government, and are against any changes. And the GOP has fostered that belief by attacking the things President Obama has tried to do in Grand Bargains.
Susan Collin's column
Essentially, what we have today is the oddity that the GOP supports maintaining Medicare Spending (without any promotion for end of life counseling - something that might reduce the average $300,000 per person spent on dying individuals in ICU's every year) while fighting to eliminate ObamaCare which will provide access to affordable health insurance for people not on Medicare. This war on ObamaCare is essentially a crass generational war with the elderly fighting to keep the younger people from having access to insurance if their employer does not provide it.
I have gone on and on in numerous posts about how our current system of health care is financially broken. But I did not previously consider it a generational war between beneficiaries of entitlements (and that is not what it is for every single individual) but in the aggregate, that is what it has become. The GOP supports the elderly, and the Democrats support people of all ages, while recognizing that the elderly must contribute to the balancing of the budget (some GOP agree with that).
And that is today's thought on the %^&*'ing mess in D.C. and why I think there may be Grand Bargain to wrap this all up. Do something about spending, which is the reason the Heritage Foundation invented HeritageRomneyObamaCare.
And if you read this far, go see GRAVITY. This is the best movie of the year so far. We saw it on an IMAX and were riveted to our seats.
Joe Nocera's Column
When done safely for the local water supply, fracking is in the national interest because we send fewer $ to the sheiks who fund Al Qaeda. It is also a self-reliant way to develop better batteries and non-fossil fuel methods for producing electricity in a gradual way. It also reduces our Current Account Deficit so we sell fewer bonds to foreigners. Fracking is good when ground water is protected and that is essential and is done 99.x% of the time. Cabot, which fouled water in PA through carelessness, will be paying a long time for fouling ground water.
2nd, China is on it's way to changing its GDP growth drivers in a gradual way. No more can it be export led and Current Account Surplus driven. It needs to be domestically oriented and they know it. This will be good for Chinese securities and I am holding onto my Golden Eagle bonds. Hank Paulson rises from the disrespect he received for inventing TARP which saved the country from a depression.
Hank Paulson's OP-Ed
I decided yesterday the only way out of this %^&*'ing mess in the Congress is to fold the authorized spending of the government into the debt ceiling. While failing to authorize spending already authorized by previous votes (why is that necessary?) to get something is tyranny by a minority and I cannot support that, there is precedent for budget negotiations during debt ceiling debates. There is a story in the NYT that that is what the voters of Iowa who elect Tea Party leader Steve King are really concerned about. What Iowa voter's really think
But within that is the core problem for the GOP. Doing something about spending means addressing Social Security and Medicare. I support some level of means testing in Medicare and the change in the inflation measure in Social Security (the current one is tied to wage rates, not inflation directly, and includes compensation for higher productivity. You can even fiddle with age eligibility a little.
But as Susan Collins points out, the GOP noticed somewhere since George Bush II was President, that a lot of their voters think social security and medicare are their right, do not come from the Government, and are against any changes. And the GOP has fostered that belief by attacking the things President Obama has tried to do in Grand Bargains.
Susan Collin's column
Essentially, what we have today is the oddity that the GOP supports maintaining Medicare Spending (without any promotion for end of life counseling - something that might reduce the average $300,000 per person spent on dying individuals in ICU's every year) while fighting to eliminate ObamaCare which will provide access to affordable health insurance for people not on Medicare. This war on ObamaCare is essentially a crass generational war with the elderly fighting to keep the younger people from having access to insurance if their employer does not provide it.
I have gone on and on in numerous posts about how our current system of health care is financially broken. But I did not previously consider it a generational war between beneficiaries of entitlements (and that is not what it is for every single individual) but in the aggregate, that is what it has become. The GOP supports the elderly, and the Democrats support people of all ages, while recognizing that the elderly must contribute to the balancing of the budget (some GOP agree with that).
And that is today's thought on the %^&*'ing mess in D.C. and why I think there may be Grand Bargain to wrap this all up. Do something about spending, which is the reason the Heritage Foundation invented HeritageRomneyObamaCare.
And if you read this far, go see GRAVITY. This is the best movie of the year so far. We saw it on an IMAX and were riveted to our seats.
Friday, October 4, 2013
A Democratic Manifesto for these times.
From an email that a Senator sent me:
If you watch the anarchist tirades coming from extremist Republicans in the House, you'd think they believe that the government that governs best is a government that doesn't exist at all. But behind all the slogans of the Tea Party – and all the thinly veiled calls for anarchy in Washington – is a reality: The American people don't want a future without government. When was the last time the anarchy gang called for regulators to go easier on companies that put lead in children's toys? Or for inspectors to stop checking whether the meat in our grocery stores is crawling with deadly bacteria? Or for the FDA to ignore whether morning sickness drugs will cause horrible deformities in our babies? When? Never. In fact, whenever the anarchists make any headway in their quest and cause damage to our government, the opposite happens. After the sequester kicked in, Republicans immediately turned around and called on us to protect funding for our national defense and to keep our air traffic controllers on the job. And now that the House Republicans have shut down the government – holding the country hostage because of some imaginary government "health care boogeyman" – Republicans almost immediately turned around and called on us to start reopening parts of our government. Why do they do this? Because the boogeyman government in the alternate universe of their fiery political speeches isn't real. It doesn't exist. Government is real, and it has three basic functions:
These things did not appear by magic. In each instance, we made a choice as a people to come together. We made that choice because we wanted to be a country with a foundation that would allow anyone to have a chance to succeed.
The Food and Drug Administration makes sure that the white pills we take are antibiotics and not baking soda. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration oversees crash tests to make sure our new cars have functioning brakes. The Consumer Product Safety Commission makes sure that babies' car seats don't collapse in a crash and that toasters don't explode. We are alive, we are healthier, we are stronger because of government. Alive, healthier, stronger because of what we did together. We are not a country of anarchists. We are not a country of pessimists and ideologues whose motto is, "I've got mine, the rest of you are on your own." We are not a country that tolerates dangerous drugs, unsafe meat, dirty air, or toxic mortgages. We are not that nation. We have never been that nation. And we never will be that nation. |
GOP Logic on Pain & Suffering & Economic Management
Phil Gingrey, Republican House Member from Georgia aka Tea Party.
"I acknowledge that hundreds of thousands of furloughed federal workers are suffering."
"But I don't think that pain and suffering compares one bit to being stuck with a lifetime of Obamacare."
That should be rewritten to say, "I prefer that those federal workers suffer income loss so we can keep millions of people without health insurance from having access to affordable health care."
Addendum: Dear GOP, It's 8:30 a.m. on the 1st Friday of the month and the market does not have the Jobs #. How are we supposed to manage the country's wealth well when we don't have data. @&*^ u. Sincerely, the market.
"I acknowledge that hundreds of thousands of furloughed federal workers are suffering."
"But I don't think that pain and suffering compares one bit to being stuck with a lifetime of Obamacare."
That should be rewritten to say, "I prefer that those federal workers suffer income loss so we can keep millions of people without health insurance from having access to affordable health care."
Addendum: Dear GOP, It's 8:30 a.m. on the 1st Friday of the month and the market does not have the Jobs #. How are we supposed to manage the country's wealth well when we don't have data. @&*^ u. Sincerely, the market.
Thursday, October 3, 2013
Respect Needs to Go Two Ways
From the a Washington Post Capehart Column
But the person who wins the award for unmitigated gall — so far — is Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R-Ind.). In an interview with the Washington Examiner about the funding fight, the former Indiana state senator elected to the House in a 2010 special election said, “We’re not going to be disrespected….We have to get something out of this. And I don’t know what that even is.” Leave aside Stutzman’s inability to articulate what ransom he would require to reopen the government or lift the nation’s legal borrowing limit. His aggrieved notion of disrespect is what curled my hair.
Stutzman ought to ask President Obama about disrespect. Ask him about being heckled with “You lie!” at a joint session of Congress in 2009. Ask him about how his phone calls to Speaker John Boehner during the debt ceiling mess in July 2011 went unreturned. Ask him about Boehner’s unprecedented rejection of the president’s desired date for a joint-session speech about jobs two months later. Ask him about the unwillingness of the speaker and other Republican “leaders” to snuff out false and offensive birther lie that continues to question the legitimacy of his presidency. Ask him about all the political and policy concessions he’s made to the great consternation of his Democratic Party base that are never acknowledged by and never seem to be enough for Republicans. Ask him about all the other slights, big and small, that he and his administration have had to endure since he walked into the Oval Office on Jan. 20, 2009.
And the President has never said let's make the government not work because I cannot get my policy proposals approved!
Q&A ON A US TREASURY TECHNICAL DEFAULT
For my readers who own Treasury Bills in their portfolio, I paraphrase a JP Morgan summary because I cannot copy and paste it on my laptop.
"JPM projects the Treasury will exhaust all of it's borrowing resources on October 24th and deplete all available funds by October 31."
"JPM does not believe Treasury will sell it's semi-liquid assets or attempt to prioritize payments."
"Treasury coupons due in late-October/early November may be delayed and prices of the bonds/bills will decline (reason below)"
"In the event of a technical default, rating agencies are likely to temporarily downgrade the US Sovereign rating until the default is cured and they think the level of foreign buying of Treasuries will decline forcing interest rates higher."
"Some money market funds holding defaulted Treasury Bills may be forced to liquidate (sell) defaulted securities." Although in the detailed writeup, JPM states they believe most funds, if not all potentially, may hold the securities which are not receiving timely payments.
Depending on how much and the price those defaulted securities are sold at, those money market funds may break the buck for holding "riskless" assets. No asset is without risk, and I don't understand why anyone would own a bond in this environment (and I manage a bond portfolio).
I don't understand why responsible Republican's cannot understand the potential chaos this will cause. It is already causing market distortions. Every citizen is hurt financially when there is financial chaos. The 1% can afford the hurt, but there are 800,000 families that are losing income because of the government shutdown. This number will only go up if the debt ceiling is not raised and the government allowed to make all the payments authorized by the Congress.
As one of my salesman always says in his daily email, "Good luck out there."
"JPM projects the Treasury will exhaust all of it's borrowing resources on October 24th and deplete all available funds by October 31."
"JPM does not believe Treasury will sell it's semi-liquid assets or attempt to prioritize payments."
"Treasury coupons due in late-October/early November may be delayed and prices of the bonds/bills will decline (reason below)"
"In the event of a technical default, rating agencies are likely to temporarily downgrade the US Sovereign rating until the default is cured and they think the level of foreign buying of Treasuries will decline forcing interest rates higher."
"Some money market funds holding defaulted Treasury Bills may be forced to liquidate (sell) defaulted securities." Although in the detailed writeup, JPM states they believe most funds, if not all potentially, may hold the securities which are not receiving timely payments.
Depending on how much and the price those defaulted securities are sold at, those money market funds may break the buck for holding "riskless" assets. No asset is without risk, and I don't understand why anyone would own a bond in this environment (and I manage a bond portfolio).
I don't understand why responsible Republican's cannot understand the potential chaos this will cause. It is already causing market distortions. Every citizen is hurt financially when there is financial chaos. The 1% can afford the hurt, but there are 800,000 families that are losing income because of the government shutdown. This number will only go up if the debt ceiling is not raised and the government allowed to make all the payments authorized by the Congress.
As one of my salesman always says in his daily email, "Good luck out there."
Wednesday, October 2, 2013
Proof that the Tea Party has a Racist Component
One of the benefits of studying Mathematics and Statistics is you learn the strengths and foibles of numbers and you learn logic. If A and B are true, and A+B=C, then C is true.
The House GOP members who are leading the charge to defund ObamaCare, which is so popular that websites crashed because millions of people went there to see what was what, are from mostly white districts. These are also the members blocking immigration reform and hate President Obama.
Now comes the demographic analysis of the 2010 gerrymandering process.
Between 2000 and 2010, the European origin white share of the population fell from 69% to 64%. But after redistricting for the 2012 elections, the European origin white share of the average Republican district rose from 73% to 75%. The average Democratic House district dropped from 52% white to 51% white.
There are no Democratic Tea Party members, and the Tea Party opposes anything that helps the poor or working poor and the Tea Party members come from predominantly white districts and race is a gerrymandering issue, therefore racism must be a component of their vehement opposition.
The House GOP members who are leading the charge to defund ObamaCare, which is so popular that websites crashed because millions of people went there to see what was what, are from mostly white districts. These are also the members blocking immigration reform and hate President Obama.
Now comes the demographic analysis of the 2010 gerrymandering process.
Between 2000 and 2010, the European origin white share of the population fell from 69% to 64%. But after redistricting for the 2012 elections, the European origin white share of the average Republican district rose from 73% to 75%. The average Democratic House district dropped from 52% white to 51% white.
There are no Democratic Tea Party members, and the Tea Party opposes anything that helps the poor or working poor and the Tea Party members come from predominantly white districts and race is a gerrymandering issue, therefore racism must be a component of their vehement opposition.
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