Donald Trump Doubles Down on BREXIT

Donald Trump says tear up all trade agreements and that will solve the steel workers problems.  But the fact is technology and automation have reduced the steel worker job number.  Steel output in the U.S. today is about equal to what it was in 1990 pre-NAFTA pre China.

Meanwhile, the conservative leaders of BREXIT have to admit they have no plan for implementation of BREXIT, and the E.U. is not making life easy for them.  If you want access to the E.U. for trade, you have to be owning up to the responsibilities of being a member of the E.U.  So what are the conservative leaders doing, they are walking back from their promises.

So voters who swallow easy answers should be aware that easy answers are never an outcome.

Musings on a NY Primary Tuesday 6/28

i know there are some elections today that matter, but I don't know if there is one where I live.  Good thing it is only 1 1/2 blocks away and I will just walk by and see if I should be voting.  Of course, I won't know the candidates and will be voting blindly.  Since I am a political junkie, what does that imply about the voters who are not and on what basis do they vote?

David Brooks analyzes how culture affects people and can influence how they vote.  It is a complex analysis focused on the thoughts of J.D. Vance's new book, Hillbilly Elegy.  I think I will download it on my Nook for a read and I hope the Democrats do too.  They need to be competitive with white male voters who are not cultural elites.

I now quote David Brooks who in these words trashes both the Kardashians and Talk Radio.

"But the honor code has also been decimated by the culture of the modern meritocracy, which awards status to the individual who works with his mind, and devalues the class of people who work with their hands."

"Most of all, it has been undermined by rampant consumerism, by celebrity culture, by reality-TV fantasies that tell people success comes in a quick flash of publicity, not through steady work. The sociologist Daniel Bell once argued that capitalism would undermine itself because it encouraged hedonistic short-term values for consumers while requiring self-disciplined long-term values in its workers. At least in one segment of society, Bell was absolutely correct."

"There’s now a rift within the working class between mostly older people who are self disciplined, respectable and, often, bigoted, and parts of a younger cohort that are more disordered, less industrious, more celebrity-obsessed, but also more tolerant and open to the world."

Link to Brook's column, well worth reading

Meanwhile, one GOP senator is preventing the EXIM Bank from approving financings over $10 mm and forcing capital intensive manufacturers to expand abroad rather than in the U.S.A.  So no one should wonder why Donald Trump did well in GOP primaries.  He understands the need for financing and can communicate that to people angry about their kids not finding good employment in their community.

And lastly, NASA is about to have a satellite orbit Jupiter and discover things about that mysterious planet.  Would the Tea Party support NASA, or the CDC, or the NIH?  Do they even believe in science as a true depiction of Noah's Arc is being opened in Kentucky by the Creationist Museum, which has dinosaurs present with early people.

Populism Explained

The link is a fairly long read, but it boils down to politics runs on money and people with money like winners and don't like losers.  It quotes Adam Smith's belief that one should identify with the unfortunate and illustrates that when the unfortunate become sufficiently numerous and grieved, they want others to hurt like they hurt.  Even if the solutions (or lack thereof in Donald Trump's case) will not help them.

Link to Column on insights another watching of the Deer Hunter created

Sometimes Clarity Comes in the Fog of Waking Up

Learning that the U.K. voters have decided by 52% to 48% to leave a United Europe, and then reading that the Spanish Socialist government is threatened by a party to its left, and then contemplating the angry support of both Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, I came to epiphany that the elite leaders of almost every country in the world are paying the price for corruption and implementing policies that favor the rich over the middle class.

While logic tells me that globalization and technology are the driving forces behind this reduction in economic opportunity for the middle class, the middle class focus on trade agreements and migration/immigration means there is room for populist politicians to take advantage of this.

As a member of the intellectual elite by education, but not birth, I have to accept some responsibility for this but I am not sure what the alternative is.  Free Trade has enriched the world.  Free Trade and globalization have created the upper middle class around the world.  Immigration is what has made the U.S. and the U.K. more competitive economically than countries that are not open to immigration.  The angry populists are not open to those arguments and I really fear what damage a governing angry populist government might do.

Sunday Musings 6/19/16. Lack of Compromise is Foundation for Country "not moving in the right direction"

There is good reason 80% of the U.S. population feels the country is going in the wrong direction.  If you are a Democrat, the Republicans don't allow any progress on any problems and are actively making progress against policies that Democrats support.  If you are a Republican, the Democrats don't allow you to implement what you really want to implement and policies that the Democrats support, and you oppose, are moving in the Democratic direction.  So the partisan political thought of winner needs to take all is dominating thoughts.  The real issue is the partisan divide.  No one likes it, but no one sees a clear path to resolving it because resolution will require some one to lose.  And no one wants to lose.  So without compromise being possible, we are at a loggerheads, and we are not moving in a proper direction.  If compromise were possible, I would at least say we are not moving in the wrong direction because we are addressing problems.

GOP Senators Run Away From Trump Over Guns

You cannot make this stuff up about how off the rail the GOP is on certain issues.

Donald Trump finally says something coherent and positive about speaking the to NRA about its policy of allowing people on the Terrorist Watch List to be able to buy guns and Jeff Sessions, the GOP Senator from Alabama, says there is no way he can support that.

Jennifer Rubin Panics

I have been panicking ever since it became clear that a substantial component of the GOP has become   certifiably crazy.

But now one of the GOP apologist pundits has done likewise.

Link to Jennifer Rubin column

Why Kansas's Tax Cuts are not Working

Thanks to the St Louis Post Dispatch for tracking this example down.

The Basketball Coach of the University of Kansas is paid $230,000 for coaching.  He pays both Federal and State Income tax on whatever taxable income is left after deductions.  He is also paid $2.75 million under a personal services contract which he has funneled into an LLC.  Under Kansas tax cut law, income in an LLC is not taxed by the state under the theory that LLC's create jobs.  But the only employee of the LLC is the U of K Basketball Coach, who probably consolidates the LLC into his personal return for Federal Tax purposes.

So Kansas gets no tax revenue from the personal services contract and no incremental jobs have been created.

And the myth of trickle down economics working at reasonable tax rates is shown once again to be a myth.

As If There Were Not Enough Reasons to Vote Against Donald Trump

Now there are more.

Since the shooting in Orlando, Donald Trump has done much to enlighten us as to exactly what policies he intends to pursue as President.

Unfortunately, they resemble making the U.S. look an awful lot like Nazi Germany, absent the Concentration Camps (at least to this point in time).

From a NYT column by Eric Rauchway.


"Trump defines the “America” he wants to put “first” by saying who does not properly belong in it. That definition does not include certain people of foreign descent born in the United States, who are to him still foreigners and whom he labels accordingly (in the past few weeks, Trump has referred to native-born Americans as “Mexican” or “Afghan”). It does not include Muslim residents, whom he would “certainly” and “absolutely” force to register their presence with the U.S. government (asked how this proposed policy differs from Nazi laws regarding Jews, Trump replied, “You tell me“)."

I am now of a mind where I hope the Republican convention decides not to vote for Donald Trump and nominates Ted Cruz.  Not that I would vote for him, his policies are not any better, but he is certainly neither a bigot nor a fascist.

The Sad Truth About Gun Control

Hate and terrorism go together because a rational person cannot become a terrorist if they are not driven by hate.  My belief is that hate is learned.  I am not speaking about a child's dislike of certain foods, they may hate something, but it is not really hate, it is a dislike.  Hate doesn't really occur to kids because they treat each other as a potential friend as they learn to socialize.  And even if they don't care for another child, they don't hate them because being treated fairly is something most kids have an inherent understanding of and they want to be treated fairly so they want everyone to be treated fairly.

So hate that results in terrorism is a learned hate.

The shooter in Orlando hated gay people.  He was a licensed gun owner and in fact worked as a security guard.  He passed background checks because he was a U.S. citizen who abided by the law until he didn't.  The FBI investigated him and could not come up with a reason to thwart his unknown future behavior.  Yes, not being able to own a semi-automatic weapon might have reduced his carnage, but if he had come in with a bunch of pistols in his belt, he would have still wrecked havoc and killed a number of people.

So the sad truth about gun control, is that it works for some things, but it doesn't for others.   As long as we have a gun culture and the U.S. has a gun culture that cannot be ended without the NRA ceasing to exist as an organization, there is no perfect gun control that will prevent mass murder terrorist acts on innocent U.S. citizens.

But that will not stop the GOP from trying to rally the voters from their base instincts of fear.  Paul Kruger explained today just how focused the GOP is on using lies and half truths to gain the support of their base.  The irony is a huckster from outside the system highjacked the process and gained the nomination.

I cannot explain how so many people don't realize the truth about how unfit Donald Trump is to be President, but that is the position we are in.  And the GOP is morally bankrupt as a result, but when the GOP didn't dispute Trump as a birther, and McConnell sought to make President Obama a ruined Presidency, and the GOP made promises that were impossible to keep, they were already morally bankrupt so getting a Trump or Cruz as a nominee was probably inevitable.

I will post a link to Kruger's column as it is worth reading.

Link to Kruger column

GOP Political Pundits Discover Philosophy is More Important than Practicality and Disown Donald Trump and Those Who Support Him

David Brooks, Jennifer Rubin and Michael Gerson have had enough.  I doubt talk radio has but they are just in it for their own revenues, just like Donald Trump so they are all peas from the same pod.

Link to Gerson Column

Key Quote:

"Is Trump himself a racist? Who the bloody hell cares? There is no difference in public influence between a politician who is a racist and one who appeals to racist sentiments with racist arguments. The harm to the country — measured in division and fear — is the same, whatever the inner workings of Trump’s heart."

Link to Rubin Column

Key Quote:

"In short, a bad rap (Republicans’ opposition to the liberal agenda makes them racists) has been turned into an accurate, deadly analysis. (Too many Republicans harbor bigoted views of minorities and/or do not recognize racism when it’s in front of them.) Not all Republicans can be labeled as such, but far too many. The solution only comes with repudiation of Trump, success of diverse candidates and an empathetic agenda that demonstrates Republicans care about all Americans, not just rich, white males."

Link to Brooks Column

Key Quote:

"The classic conservative belief, by contrast, is that character is destiny. Temperament is foundational. Each candidate has to cross some basic threshold of dependability as a human being before it’s even relevant to judge his or her policy agenda. Trump doesn’t cross that threshold."


And just for good measure, a Charles Krauthammer quote.

"I sympathize with the dilemma of Republican leaders reluctant to affirm. Many are as appalled as I am by Trump, but they don’t have the freedom I do to say, as I have publicly, that I cannot imagine ever voting for him."

And to conclude, something from Paul Kruger.

"Indeed, the road to Trumpism began with ideological conservatives cynically exploiting America’s racial divisions. The modern Republican Party’s central policy agenda of cutting taxes on the rich while slashing benefits has never been very popular, even among its own voters. It won elections nonetheless by getting working-class whites to think of themselves as a group under siege, and to see government programs as giveaways to Those People."

"Or to put it another way, the G.O.P. was able to serve the interests of the 1 percent by posing as the defender of the 80 percent — for that was the white share of the electorate when Ronald Reagan was elected."

"But demographic change — rapid growth in the Hispanic and Asian population — has brought the non-Hispanic white share of the electoratedown to 62 percent and falling. Republicans need to broaden their base; but the base wants candidates who will defend the old racial order. Hence Trumpism."

Thomas Friedman's Turn to Eviscerate the GOP

I could not say it better.

"America needs a healthy two-party system. America needs a healthy center-right party to ensure that the Democrats remain a healthy center-left party. America needs a center-right party ready to offer market-based solutions to issues like climate change. America needs a center-right party that will support common-sense gun laws. America needs a center-right party that will support common-sense fiscal policy. America needs a center-right party to support both free trade and aid to workers impacted by it. America needs a center-right party that appreciates how much more complicated foreign policy is today, when you have to manage weak and collapsing nations, not just muscle strong ones."

"But this Republican Party is none of those things. Today’s G.O.P. is to governing what Trump University is to education — an ethically challenged enterprise that enriches and perpetuates itself by shedding all pretense of standing for real principles, or a truly relevant value proposition, and instead plays on the ignorance and fears of the public."

"It is just an empty shell, selling pieces of itself to the highest bidders, — policy by policy — a little to the Tea Party over here, a little to Big Oil over there, a little to the gun lobby, to antitax zealots, to climate-change deniers. And before you know it, the party stands for an incoherent mess of ideas unrelated to any theory of where the world is going or how America actually becomes great again in the 21st century."

"It becomes instead a coalition of men and women who sell pieces of their brand to whoever can most energize their base in order for them to get re-elected in order for them to sell more pieces of their brand in order to get re-elected."

"And we know just how little they are attached to any principles, because today’s Republican Party’s elders have told us so by (with a few notable exceptions) being so willing to throw their support behind a presidential candidate whom they know is utterly ignorant of policy, has done no homework, has engaged in racist attacks on a sitting judge, has mocked a disabled reporter, has impugned an entire religious community, and has tossed off ignorant proposals for walls, for letting allies go it alone and go nuclear and for overturning trade treaties, rules of war and nuclear agreements in ways that would be wildly destabilizing if he took office."

"Despite that, all top G.O.P. leaders say they will still support Donald Trump — even if he’s dabbled in a “textbook definition” of racism, as House Speaker Paul Ryan described it — because he will sign off on their agenda and can do only limited damage given our checks and balances."

"Really? Mr. Speaker, your agenda is a mess, Trump will pay even less attention to you if he is president and, as Senator Lindsey Graham rightly put it, there has to be a time “when the love of country will trump hatred of Hillary.”

"Will it ever be that time with this version of the G.O.P.?"

"Et tu, John McCain? You didn’t break under torture from the North Vietnamese, but your hunger for re-election is so great that you don’t dare raise your voice against Trump? I hope you lose. You deserve to. Marco Rubio? You called Trump “a con man,” he insults your very being and you still endorse him? Good riddance."

"Chris Christie, have you not an ounce of self-respect? You’re serving as the valet to a man who claimed, falsely, that on 9/11, in Jersey City, home to many Arab-Americans, “thousands and thousands of people were cheering as that building was coming down.” Christie is backing a man who made up a baldfaced lie about residents of his own state so that maybe he can be his vice president. Contemptible."

"This is exactly why so many Republican voters opted for Trump in the first place. They intuited that the only thing these G.O.P. politicians were interested in was holding onto their seats in office — and they were right. It made voters so utterly cynical that many figured, Why not inflict Trump on them? It’s all just a con game anyway. And at least Trump sticks it to all of those politically correct liberals. And anyway, governing doesn’t matter — only attitude."

"And who taught them that?"

Link to entire column, but most of it is here

George Will Slams Donald Trump & Paul Ryan's support of Trump

Pundits sure can write better than I do.

Link to George Will Column