While the Economist correctly notes the seriousness of Putin's escapades in the Eastern Ukraine, they focus on the need for military spending in the E.U. and Central Europe rather than the hard truth that consumption of Russian energy needs to be reduced.
And Mr. Putin, why is it that only Russian borders need to be expanded? You wouldn't give Chechnya freedom by shrinking Russia's borders, why should the Ukraine be asked to do that?
The policy of hate by the Tea Party is a repeat phenomenon. After the Civil War gave Blacks their freedom, the KKK and Jim Crow laws were created. After other laws were passed to protect African American rights, they were overturned by conservative Supreme Court decisions and segregation was allowed to continue. Now Obama has been elected President, and the Tea Party is strongest where the KKK used to be present. And the Tea Party state legislators in many of those places are doing their best to disenfranchise their African American citizens.
The complicated nature of nurturing poor children to become sufficiently educated to escape poverty is highlighted in the following NY Times article telling the story of Tenille Warren, who had a guaranteed college scholarship, but chose to work in a Safeway because the concept of college was so foreign to her. Now 20 years after high school, she is in college because of hard work and a dream.
Link to article about Tenille Warren
Which shows just how far we have to go to create a land of opportunity for everyone, a true meritocracy where one is not doomed to failure by the bad luck of birth. And that focus must be on training parents to be better educators so that kids can have success in school which feeds hope which fuels ambition and drive. Kids do not have success in school if their parents don't read to them and talk to them when they are babies. And there is a problem. 70% of middle aged African American men who did not graduate from High School have been imprisoned. If the GOP really believed in an equal society for all, they would be addressing poverty with some policy of educating parents how to be better parents so their kids will achieve something in school. They are not and so I believe the GOP does not really care about poverty and the impact it has on society.
Link to Nickolas Kristoff's Take on the State of Race Relations
Lastly, there is no doubt that ISIS is a problem. But so is Assad who is fighting (ineffectively) ISIS. and Iran is a well known long standing problem. ISIS is fighting Iran and Assad so they should be our friends, except they hate us and Israel so they are the enemy. But that does not make Iran and Assad our allies and I cannot imagine any manner in which U.S. boots on the ground engaged in fighting ISIS can make any sense. They would be caught in a cross fire between enemies for which they would be a mutual enemy. My question is where are the military forces of Turkey, Jordan and Iraq? They are the ones with ground based supply lines and they are the ones who have the most to lose if ISIS were to come after them.
And then there is the two faced Saudi King saying the U.S. should come after ISIS when his people are sending money that helps keep Al-Qaeda, the Taliban and ISIS well funded. Why doesn't he take care of his people and cut off that funding.
And I see where some in Israel are musing about the danger of creating a Palestinian state on the West Bank and the danger of not creating a Palestinian state on the West Bank. That is a positive even if it is unlikely to occur in the foreseeable future.
Finally, a Conservative Judge destroy's the legal arguments against Same Sex Marriage. Use the link to get to the article and listen to the Audio of the Judge questioning the Attorney General's of Indiana and Wisconsin who are trying to defend their state laws banning gay marriage. The Judge asks who is helped by this law when the children of same sex couples are being harmed. And he wonders why should tradition that is unconstitutional be sanctioned by a court when other traditions have been ruled unconstitutional by the admission of the Attorney General trying to defend the law the court is being asked to uphold or overturn.
Link to Judge Posner's questions
Sunday, August 31, 2014
Friday, August 29, 2014
The Only Solution for Putin
It will be painful for the EU and the U.S. has to help the EU, so it will be painful for the U.S.
The EU must cut imports of Russian energy in both price and volume. That means the US must cut its consumption of oil (and the 1st place a price increase would reduce imports is the oil that must travel the furthest to the US, which means the Middle East and that would flow to the EU) and the US must start to export Natural Gas (which will take time to build the facilities) to the EU so it can reduce its business with Gazprom.
The only way this will happen is (i) a U.S. gas tax (with perhaps the funds flowing back to taxpayers so there is no revenue increase for the government) and (ii) more pipelines and construction of LNG facilities. The gas tax will mollify the environmentally concerned about the latter. The latter will mollify the free traders and business part of the GOP. And the whole process should be seen as good by the neo-con's who want to return to the Cold War, because that is where we are, but we can't fight it through military means. It has to be economic. The only unhappy people will be the Tea Party, but they don't want anything coherent anyway.
The only thing Putin understands is a Cold War mentality and until the West gets serious about reducing the global price of energy (which also provides the funds for global jihad) we will not be taken seriously by Putin.
So we can kill 3 birds with one policy: Global Warming, reducing the money that Putin is using to harm the Ukraine and work to curb Islamic terrorism.
If the GOP cannot support this, then they are truly in the pockets of the energy companies and their campaign $ and they support the flow of energy profits to fuel instability in this world.
The EU must cut imports of Russian energy in both price and volume. That means the US must cut its consumption of oil (and the 1st place a price increase would reduce imports is the oil that must travel the furthest to the US, which means the Middle East and that would flow to the EU) and the US must start to export Natural Gas (which will take time to build the facilities) to the EU so it can reduce its business with Gazprom.
The only way this will happen is (i) a U.S. gas tax (with perhaps the funds flowing back to taxpayers so there is no revenue increase for the government) and (ii) more pipelines and construction of LNG facilities. The gas tax will mollify the environmentally concerned about the latter. The latter will mollify the free traders and business part of the GOP. And the whole process should be seen as good by the neo-con's who want to return to the Cold War, because that is where we are, but we can't fight it through military means. It has to be economic. The only unhappy people will be the Tea Party, but they don't want anything coherent anyway.
The only thing Putin understands is a Cold War mentality and until the West gets serious about reducing the global price of energy (which also provides the funds for global jihad) we will not be taken seriously by Putin.
So we can kill 3 birds with one policy: Global Warming, reducing the money that Putin is using to harm the Ukraine and work to curb Islamic terrorism.
If the GOP cannot support this, then they are truly in the pockets of the energy companies and their campaign $ and they support the flow of energy profits to fuel instability in this world.
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
Justice, Tolerance, Humility
3 concepts that we should all live by.
Credit for this goes to Michael Cretu, who I am sure would credit someone else.
Inspired by a google search while listening to Enigma, Michael Cretu's music of the 1990's.
Credit for this goes to Michael Cretu, who I am sure would credit someone else.
Inspired by a google search while listening to Enigma, Michael Cretu's music of the 1990's.
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
Book Review: A Fort of Nine Towers
Written by Qais Akbar Omar.
This is a well written and readable book about growing up in Kabul over the last 30 years. The family was well educated, started the story with wealth, lost it all but somehow kept the ability to find a way to survive the Russians, the Civil War, and the Taliban and then find a way to make a living again after the Taliban were driven out.
My takeaway: There are decent people in Afghanistan and they know they have to rebuild their country, which can be done if the leadership fights corruption. The Taliban are not religious, they use religion as a means to gain economic support through force so they don't have to work. Anyone who fosters the warlords and corruption does not have the best interests of most Afghani's as their motive.
I recommend this book to anyone interested in understanding what Afghanistan could be.
This is a well written and readable book about growing up in Kabul over the last 30 years. The family was well educated, started the story with wealth, lost it all but somehow kept the ability to find a way to survive the Russians, the Civil War, and the Taliban and then find a way to make a living again after the Taliban were driven out.
My takeaway: There are decent people in Afghanistan and they know they have to rebuild their country, which can be done if the leadership fights corruption. The Taliban are not religious, they use religion as a means to gain economic support through force so they don't have to work. Anyone who fosters the warlords and corruption does not have the best interests of most Afghani's as their motive.
I recommend this book to anyone interested in understanding what Afghanistan could be.
The Insanity of the Middle East and U.S. Energy Policy
No one could make this up in advance.
1st, we overthrow and hang Saddam Hussein, who at the very least was not a good guy since he invaded Kuwait, our ally, after fighting a 10 year war with Iran, our enemy, when he was our friend.
Then we let the majority work it's way in Iraq and the Shiite take control, which makes our ally, Iraq, an ally of Iran, our enemy, and an ally of Assad and Hizbollah. Our allies, Saudi Arabia and Qater, send money to Sunni militants who are the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan and against the U.S. and our allies, Afghanistan and Pakistan. But these same Sunni militants are now ISIS who are bad BAD BAD and our enemy. But Assad, Iran, & Hizbollah are also anti-ISIS so they are now our allies despite our considering them our enemies. And we still consider the Saudis and the Qatar's our allies despite their sending money to ISIS our enemy.
So just who are our allies and our enemies? Seems like the best thing we could do is revamp our energy policy to reduce our reliance on oil so the price falls substantially and hurts both Putin, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. But the Republicans won't allow that so their policies support the flow of funds to Putin, Iran and Saudi Arabia and onto ISIS.
I just want to go golfing and have a few beers with my friends because the incoherency of all this is overwhelming.
1st, we overthrow and hang Saddam Hussein, who at the very least was not a good guy since he invaded Kuwait, our ally, after fighting a 10 year war with Iran, our enemy, when he was our friend.
Then we let the majority work it's way in Iraq and the Shiite take control, which makes our ally, Iraq, an ally of Iran, our enemy, and an ally of Assad and Hizbollah. Our allies, Saudi Arabia and Qater, send money to Sunni militants who are the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan and against the U.S. and our allies, Afghanistan and Pakistan. But these same Sunni militants are now ISIS who are bad BAD BAD and our enemy. But Assad, Iran, & Hizbollah are also anti-ISIS so they are now our allies despite our considering them our enemies. And we still consider the Saudis and the Qatar's our allies despite their sending money to ISIS our enemy.
So just who are our allies and our enemies? Seems like the best thing we could do is revamp our energy policy to reduce our reliance on oil so the price falls substantially and hurts both Putin, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. But the Republicans won't allow that so their policies support the flow of funds to Putin, Iran and Saudi Arabia and onto ISIS.
I just want to go golfing and have a few beers with my friends because the incoherency of all this is overwhelming.
Sunday, August 24, 2014
We are getting a world that happens when Congress does not react to change in forward thinking manner
If you follow the flow of people around the world carefully, you find that people move from chaos to calm. So there is chaos in Central America from gang activity and people flow to the U.S. trying to become undocumented immigrants because the U.S. is relatively calm as long as you are not an African American male teenager or a Chicago Hispanic drug dealer.
There is also chaos in the Middle East and North Africa and not surprising there is a flow of undocumented immigrants from those places into Mediterranean Europe. There is also chaos in the Eastern Ukraine, Afghanistan, Pakistan, parts of India and low and behold we see massive amounts of emigration from those places too.
The lesson for Congress (and the legislatures of Europe) is that policy and aid packages need to be supportive of ending chaos in the countries from which people are emigrating. If there is no progress on ending the chaos, people will give up and emigrate. (A similar analogy could be made for Israel and the Palestinians, but since the Palestinians can not emigrate, the process simply feeds the radicalization of young men, without hope, who become the manpower for Hamas, Hizbollah, and ISIS.)
So while the Tea Party GOP has been blocking everything about operating the U.S. government, there has been little ability to adjust U.S. Foreign Aid and no ability to increase Foreign Aid. In fact, most American voters (i) think we already spend too much on foreign aid and (ii) have no comprehension that U.S. foreign aid to foreign governments is the way to reduce undocumented immigration.
The only way undocumented immigration to the U.S. has been reduced is when either (i) there is a Great Recession in the U.S. or (ii) employment prospects in the native country are better than the U.S. NAFTA has done more to reduce Mexican emigration to the U.S. than anything else, but try to get a Tea Party Republican or a left wing labor favoring Democrat to vote to approve a Free Trade Agreement. Partisan politics have destroyed the moderates in the middle who understand Free Trade Agreements are good for the U.S. economy, less undocumented immigrants and more jobs for Americans.
Anyway, there have been a flurry of commentaries about how President Obama has checked out of leading. I don't think that is the case, I think he understands that he cannot get anything passed by Congress (who aren't in session anyway and will not be until January 2015 at the earliest) and he understands that the American military and people need a break from being in harms way, so his only response to ISIS can be limited use of military.
Besides, when it comes to dealing with ISIS, you would think Turkey, Iran and Jordan would have an interest in squashing ISIS. You would think Europe and Russia, which have their own Islamic problems, would have an interest in squashing ISIS. And you would think Shia Iraq politicians would have an interest in building an inclusive government that binds all the opposition to ISIS within Iraq into a coherent nationstate, which is not what al-Malaki did.
I don't blame Obama because I think he knew from his intelligence that the Syrian opposition was so splintered and weak that a military victory for them was impossible and he didn't want sophisticated weapons falling into the hands of ISIS. Little could he know that the Iraqi Army would disintegrate before 10,000 ragtag murderous maniacs and give said sophisticated weapons to ISIS.
What I do blame is Congress? They are so fixated on not compromising and ruining the Obama Presidency they are the equivalent of Nero fiddling while Rome burned. There is a reason all the Congresses before 2008 compromised, good government demanded that policies be shaped in the middle. There is no pure right wing Ayn Rand set of policies that will result in a strong economy and fair society and there is no pure leftist set of policies that will result in a strong economy and fair society. After all, ObamaCare was designed by the Heritage Foundation and 1st implemented by GOP Governor Romney. How can ObamaCare be anything as horrible as the Tea Party and GOP make it out to be? And the resulting hatred between partisans is hurting the U.S. on the foreign policy front.
There is also chaos in the Middle East and North Africa and not surprising there is a flow of undocumented immigrants from those places into Mediterranean Europe. There is also chaos in the Eastern Ukraine, Afghanistan, Pakistan, parts of India and low and behold we see massive amounts of emigration from those places too.
The lesson for Congress (and the legislatures of Europe) is that policy and aid packages need to be supportive of ending chaos in the countries from which people are emigrating. If there is no progress on ending the chaos, people will give up and emigrate. (A similar analogy could be made for Israel and the Palestinians, but since the Palestinians can not emigrate, the process simply feeds the radicalization of young men, without hope, who become the manpower for Hamas, Hizbollah, and ISIS.)
So while the Tea Party GOP has been blocking everything about operating the U.S. government, there has been little ability to adjust U.S. Foreign Aid and no ability to increase Foreign Aid. In fact, most American voters (i) think we already spend too much on foreign aid and (ii) have no comprehension that U.S. foreign aid to foreign governments is the way to reduce undocumented immigration.
The only way undocumented immigration to the U.S. has been reduced is when either (i) there is a Great Recession in the U.S. or (ii) employment prospects in the native country are better than the U.S. NAFTA has done more to reduce Mexican emigration to the U.S. than anything else, but try to get a Tea Party Republican or a left wing labor favoring Democrat to vote to approve a Free Trade Agreement. Partisan politics have destroyed the moderates in the middle who understand Free Trade Agreements are good for the U.S. economy, less undocumented immigrants and more jobs for Americans.
Anyway, there have been a flurry of commentaries about how President Obama has checked out of leading. I don't think that is the case, I think he understands that he cannot get anything passed by Congress (who aren't in session anyway and will not be until January 2015 at the earliest) and he understands that the American military and people need a break from being in harms way, so his only response to ISIS can be limited use of military.
Besides, when it comes to dealing with ISIS, you would think Turkey, Iran and Jordan would have an interest in squashing ISIS. You would think Europe and Russia, which have their own Islamic problems, would have an interest in squashing ISIS. And you would think Shia Iraq politicians would have an interest in building an inclusive government that binds all the opposition to ISIS within Iraq into a coherent nationstate, which is not what al-Malaki did.
I don't blame Obama because I think he knew from his intelligence that the Syrian opposition was so splintered and weak that a military victory for them was impossible and he didn't want sophisticated weapons falling into the hands of ISIS. Little could he know that the Iraqi Army would disintegrate before 10,000 ragtag murderous maniacs and give said sophisticated weapons to ISIS.
What I do blame is Congress? They are so fixated on not compromising and ruining the Obama Presidency they are the equivalent of Nero fiddling while Rome burned. There is a reason all the Congresses before 2008 compromised, good government demanded that policies be shaped in the middle. There is no pure right wing Ayn Rand set of policies that will result in a strong economy and fair society and there is no pure leftist set of policies that will result in a strong economy and fair society. After all, ObamaCare was designed by the Heritage Foundation and 1st implemented by GOP Governor Romney. How can ObamaCare be anything as horrible as the Tea Party and GOP make it out to be? And the resulting hatred between partisans is hurting the U.S. on the foreign policy front.
Saturday, August 23, 2014
What the F*ck Putin?
So you have 17,000,000 square kilometers within Russia, before taking over Crimea, which does have a valuable warm water seaport. Why are you messing with global peace and more economic damage to Russia and Europe and more capital flight by trying to control another 300 square kilometers of the Ukraine?
Enough already, you egomaniac!
Enough already, you egomaniac!
Wednesday, August 20, 2014
What Can a White Person Say About Shootings by Policeman?
1st, I could say what Bill Cosby said over 10 years ago, when he said committing a crime (and shoplifting is a crime) and then complaining about being arrested for it invalidates such protest.
Or I could say, that no matter what the crime, the goal of police is to arrest somebody, not be the arresting officer, prosecuting attorney, jury, judge and executioner all in the span of 10 seconds. After all, even murderers get their day in court, so shouldn't a shoplifter or illegal cigarette seller.
So what I will say, is that perhaps police should ride 2 to a car so they always have backup and don't feel compelled to give in to fear and blast someone they feel is threatening to them. Although, I suspect the St Louis shoplifter shot yesterday by 10 bullets had more then one policeman looking at him with guns drawn. So, perhaps shooting to wound might be a better policy then shooting to kill which is what the local constabulary in St. Louis seem to do.
I don't know what else to say except I understand that I do not understand how angry African American teen age males might be after Treyvon Martin, Eric Garner, Michael Brown and Kajieme Powell were all murdered without a gun or a formal arrest by policemen. I understand how they can believe that Stand Your Ground laws are aimed at allowing white people to shoot black teenagers without any provocation except for the fact that the individual that they are afraid of is a black male teenager. And I can understand their desire to protest such killings wanting them to end. I don't believe white people have a right to shoot anyone based upon fear alone, especially when the white person does something to create fear in the African American.
Or I could say, that no matter what the crime, the goal of police is to arrest somebody, not be the arresting officer, prosecuting attorney, jury, judge and executioner all in the span of 10 seconds. After all, even murderers get their day in court, so shouldn't a shoplifter or illegal cigarette seller.
So what I will say, is that perhaps police should ride 2 to a car so they always have backup and don't feel compelled to give in to fear and blast someone they feel is threatening to them. Although, I suspect the St Louis shoplifter shot yesterday by 10 bullets had more then one policeman looking at him with guns drawn. So, perhaps shooting to wound might be a better policy then shooting to kill which is what the local constabulary in St. Louis seem to do.
I don't know what else to say except I understand that I do not understand how angry African American teen age males might be after Treyvon Martin, Eric Garner, Michael Brown and Kajieme Powell were all murdered without a gun or a formal arrest by policemen. I understand how they can believe that Stand Your Ground laws are aimed at allowing white people to shoot black teenagers without any provocation except for the fact that the individual that they are afraid of is a black male teenager. And I can understand their desire to protest such killings wanting them to end. I don't believe white people have a right to shoot anyone based upon fear alone, especially when the white person does something to create fear in the African American.
Sunday, August 10, 2014
NRA is Responsible for the Kid's on the Border
I kid you not. 1/3 of the guns that are confiscated from bad guys in Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador can be traced back to U.S. gun shops. And I bet you that the guys who manage to not get caught have an even higher percentage of U.S. guns because they are undoubtedly smarter than the guys who get caught.
One gun made the trip from the U.S. to a crime to being confiscated in 6 days. Open sales in the U.S., without background checks and checking for straw purchases, are fueling the violence in Central America and driving the children to the U.S. border. So the NRA, backed but funding from the gun and ammunition companies, fighting background checks and prohibiting straw purchase (and automatic weapons for that matter) are directly responsible for the increase in violence in Central America. So basically, the Central American violence is all about the profitability of the U.S. gun industry and that is what the NRA is really all about since no one wants to take any normal hunting weapon away from any gun owner.
Now, I will admit that U.S. consumption of illegal drugs is providing the money to pay for these guns, but that has been written about in past postings here.
One gun made the trip from the U.S. to a crime to being confiscated in 6 days. Open sales in the U.S., without background checks and checking for straw purchases, are fueling the violence in Central America and driving the children to the U.S. border. So the NRA, backed but funding from the gun and ammunition companies, fighting background checks and prohibiting straw purchase (and automatic weapons for that matter) are directly responsible for the increase in violence in Central America. So basically, the Central American violence is all about the profitability of the U.S. gun industry and that is what the NRA is really all about since no one wants to take any normal hunting weapon away from any gun owner.
Now, I will admit that U.S. consumption of illegal drugs is providing the money to pay for these guns, but that has been written about in past postings here.
Friday, August 8, 2014
Neo-Con's Making Same Mistake Ultra Left Makes
About the only the benefit of my occasional insomnia, where I wake up after 4 hours of sleep and cannot return to sleep, is that I get to listen to the BBC morning shows.
This morning they had an in-depth interview with Andrei Konchalovsky, the Russian movie director, and observer of Russian society. He made some excellent points that motivated me to get out of bed and get my day started at 4:30 a.m.
He quoted Daniel Patrick Moynihan, the Irish American intellectual Senator from the great state of NY. "Conservatives believe culture determines politics, Liberals believe politics determine culture."
That sentence describes an absolute truth that illuminates so many issues within the U.S. at the present moment, although for the life of me, I cannot figure out why Heritage Foundation/RomneyCare/ObamaCare is such a lightening rod issue for conservatives when (i) our old healthcare system was so clearly failing a large segment of the population while costing the remainder of the population increasing amounts of money each year and (ii) the Heritage Foundation which design ObamaCare is a conservative think tank.
But I digress from the most important issue Mr. Konchalovsky illuminated for me with that quotation.
When the neo-conservatives promote the need for the U.S.A. to create democracy everywhere, they are making the same mistake the Ultra-left makes in believing politics can determine culture. Nothing is ever implemented politically until the culture is ready to accept it. So when the left wants whatever it wants, it will face rejection until it has convinced some level of the population > 50% that whatever is an OK policy. Similarly, neo-conservative democracy nation building is going to fail unless > 50% of the country we are trying to build a state within believes that Western Democracy is right for their country.
Actually, the > 50% is probably too low a standard if you don't want the culture wars that abortion rights has created in the United States. And, if you want a well working democracy, the standard is probably north of > 80% or you have the potential for the country to look like the Ukraine at present.
Mr. Konchalovsky was explaining why Putin feels the way he does and why the Russian population is supporting him in what he is doing. In his mind, the vast majority of Russians are not yet prepared culturally for democracy. And Russia is light years closer to that stage than Iraq or anywhere else in the Arab/Persian Islamic world is. And he included China in that category, although given the success of democracy in the rest of the Confucian world, I am not a believer that China is ill-prepared culturally to become a democracy, if some brave leader could convince the Communist Party to open things up.
His main point was that you have to understand the dynamics of what the people are thinking they want from their government. The European bred western democracy has been almost 800 years in the making since the Magna Carta in 1215. Russia has been an autocracy, delivering security to the peasants since Ivan the Terrible in the mid-1500's. There was not even a pretense of democracy until the breakup of the USSR and the vast majority of the Russian people have not given up their desire to be (i) taken care of by the state and (ii) believe in the destiny of Russia to be a Great Nation.
He also explained that Russia is really two nations culturally: (i) a small minority, < 5%, centered around St. Petersburg and what is left of the Jewish population (the vast majority of whom emigrated over the last 150 years - thank you Great Grandma), are culturally Europeans, educated, and comfortable with democracy and (ii) a large majority that are culturally Russian Orthodox, feel threatened by the West and the East, want to be a great nation and want to be taken care of. Not that they are afraid to work hard. A peasant's life is centered around a hardscrabble life. But they do not want to be threatened and believe in the righteousness of a strong leader. They don't give a sh*t about democracy.
Thus, Mr. Konchalovsky's love for Mr. Moynihan's quote. Until Russian culture is prepared for democracy, do not expect a Western oriented democracy in Moscow. And the Ukraine, if you examine history, is where the conflict between Western and Eastern cultures has been most intense through the centuries. That does not justify the insurrection that Putin has fostered in the Eastern Ukraine, but offers some explanation for Putin's domestic political success in his position.
The mistake that both neo-conservatives (internationally) and the ultra left (domestically) make is the belief that politics can shape culture. That does not happen. Political change happens only when the culture is prepared to accept it, wants it, and forces it. You can only get the laws you want passed if you convince the voters that it is good policy and get them to vote for people who believe in that policy.
That is why, while I don't believe in everything Justin Amash wants to change about the government, I see the purity of his view and respect it. Although, I do believe in compromise and he apparently does not. If that works in his district, he should continue to vote his way. I loved his slam of the Swift Boat politics from the establishment Republicans that he had to work through. Now he knows how John Kerry felt.
This morning they had an in-depth interview with Andrei Konchalovsky, the Russian movie director, and observer of Russian society. He made some excellent points that motivated me to get out of bed and get my day started at 4:30 a.m.
He quoted Daniel Patrick Moynihan, the Irish American intellectual Senator from the great state of NY. "Conservatives believe culture determines politics, Liberals believe politics determine culture."
That sentence describes an absolute truth that illuminates so many issues within the U.S. at the present moment, although for the life of me, I cannot figure out why Heritage Foundation/RomneyCare/ObamaCare is such a lightening rod issue for conservatives when (i) our old healthcare system was so clearly failing a large segment of the population while costing the remainder of the population increasing amounts of money each year and (ii) the Heritage Foundation which design ObamaCare is a conservative think tank.
But I digress from the most important issue Mr. Konchalovsky illuminated for me with that quotation.
When the neo-conservatives promote the need for the U.S.A. to create democracy everywhere, they are making the same mistake the Ultra-left makes in believing politics can determine culture. Nothing is ever implemented politically until the culture is ready to accept it. So when the left wants whatever it wants, it will face rejection until it has convinced some level of the population > 50% that whatever is an OK policy. Similarly, neo-conservative democracy nation building is going to fail unless > 50% of the country we are trying to build a state within believes that Western Democracy is right for their country.
Actually, the > 50% is probably too low a standard if you don't want the culture wars that abortion rights has created in the United States. And, if you want a well working democracy, the standard is probably north of > 80% or you have the potential for the country to look like the Ukraine at present.
Mr. Konchalovsky was explaining why Putin feels the way he does and why the Russian population is supporting him in what he is doing. In his mind, the vast majority of Russians are not yet prepared culturally for democracy. And Russia is light years closer to that stage than Iraq or anywhere else in the Arab/Persian Islamic world is. And he included China in that category, although given the success of democracy in the rest of the Confucian world, I am not a believer that China is ill-prepared culturally to become a democracy, if some brave leader could convince the Communist Party to open things up.
His main point was that you have to understand the dynamics of what the people are thinking they want from their government. The European bred western democracy has been almost 800 years in the making since the Magna Carta in 1215. Russia has been an autocracy, delivering security to the peasants since Ivan the Terrible in the mid-1500's. There was not even a pretense of democracy until the breakup of the USSR and the vast majority of the Russian people have not given up their desire to be (i) taken care of by the state and (ii) believe in the destiny of Russia to be a Great Nation.
He also explained that Russia is really two nations culturally: (i) a small minority, < 5%, centered around St. Petersburg and what is left of the Jewish population (the vast majority of whom emigrated over the last 150 years - thank you Great Grandma), are culturally Europeans, educated, and comfortable with democracy and (ii) a large majority that are culturally Russian Orthodox, feel threatened by the West and the East, want to be a great nation and want to be taken care of. Not that they are afraid to work hard. A peasant's life is centered around a hardscrabble life. But they do not want to be threatened and believe in the righteousness of a strong leader. They don't give a sh*t about democracy.
Thus, Mr. Konchalovsky's love for Mr. Moynihan's quote. Until Russian culture is prepared for democracy, do not expect a Western oriented democracy in Moscow. And the Ukraine, if you examine history, is where the conflict between Western and Eastern cultures has been most intense through the centuries. That does not justify the insurrection that Putin has fostered in the Eastern Ukraine, but offers some explanation for Putin's domestic political success in his position.
The mistake that both neo-conservatives (internationally) and the ultra left (domestically) make is the belief that politics can shape culture. That does not happen. Political change happens only when the culture is prepared to accept it, wants it, and forces it. You can only get the laws you want passed if you convince the voters that it is good policy and get them to vote for people who believe in that policy.
That is why, while I don't believe in everything Justin Amash wants to change about the government, I see the purity of his view and respect it. Although, I do believe in compromise and he apparently does not. If that works in his district, he should continue to vote his way. I loved his slam of the Swift Boat politics from the establishment Republicans that he had to work through. Now he knows how John Kerry felt.
Sunday, August 3, 2014
The Lessons of Gaza and Central America will end up being the same
The key lesson is the same one that allowed 9/11 to happen. If you allow chaos to function, radical armed groups will fill the void and create their own sense of order in the disorder.
Let us start with Central America. Honduras suffered dearly from a hurricane in the late 1990's. The economy contracted severely and the 1st rush of undocumented immigrants from Central America began. A coup followed and exacerbated the economic collapse. Gangs developed in this void. Gangs, doing what gangs do, figured out how to use racketeering and drug smuggling to provide their money to pay for their life style. Without any hope from legitimate economic activity, the power of the gangs grew as the traditional sources of personal security collapsed. This has now led to the onslaught of children trying to get into the United States under the guise of the anti-child trafficking legislation. The new story focused on Honduras, but I am sure if a reported dug into the details of El Salvador (which used to be one of the star economies of this region) and Nicaragua, the details would end with a similar cause and effect.
This is where foreign aid, one of the original targets for reduction by Tea Party types, can help. If the U.S. had used foreign aid more aggressively to help Honduras in the aftermath of the hurricane, perhaps the economy would not have collapsed and then we would not have the flood of immigrant children that has the Tea Party types so upset.
Now the U.S. does provide plenty of foreign aid to Israel, Jordan and Egypt. That has not stopped chaos from developing on the ground in-between them, but I am not sure more foreign aid would have made a difference there unless it somehow could have been used to improve the Palestine economy and hope for a better life in the future.
This is Israel's challenge. Over 50% of the population of Gaza is under age 18. They have no hope as Gaza is essentially an open aired concentration camp with an economy that keeps getting ruined by the actions of Hamas and Israel's justified response to Hamas. When the Egyptians and Saudi's are rooting Israel on, you know that Hamas has no basis for Israel to be friends with it. Not that Hamas wants to be friend with Israel.
However, Israel must find a way to create hope for the young Palestinians or they will be open to radicalization by Hamas and their kind. And that will only happen if Israel can reward the moderate PLO with a state on the West Bank and provide assistance in developing the economy there. Otherwise, Israel will have chaos on its border and hope will be forever extinguished for young Palestinians.
Without an economy, chaos develops, hope is nonexistent and young people do what young people do, they look for a way to improve their circumstances or they become so angry they become militants.
Successful economies must do what they can to provide hope for young people, not only in their own country, but in countries where the young people can have an effect on the citizens of the successful economy. There is no alternative to this because chaos will fill any void in hope.
That is the common lesson from Central America to Gaza.
Now I know that neither the PLO nor Hamas have been great negotiating entities for Israel, but they represent the Palestinians and Israel has to deal with what they've got. The chaos must end and fostering a Palestine state on the West Bank boosting the moderate PLO is the only way to get the radicalized masses in Gaza to abandon Hamas.
Boosting the PLO means ending and shrinking the West Bank settlements and helping the Palestine economy. Israel can have all the security they want, but if Israel has a never ending source of radicalized young people without hope in Palestine, all there will be is chaos on the border and a declining level of intentional support because the successful nation state always bears the responsibility for being the grown up and creating/maintaining an economy that is successful enough to not foster chaos.
The following articles stimulated this thought.
Thomas Friedman on How This War Ends
Roger Cohen on Global Reaction to Gaza
News Article on Honduras
Let us start with Central America. Honduras suffered dearly from a hurricane in the late 1990's. The economy contracted severely and the 1st rush of undocumented immigrants from Central America began. A coup followed and exacerbated the economic collapse. Gangs developed in this void. Gangs, doing what gangs do, figured out how to use racketeering and drug smuggling to provide their money to pay for their life style. Without any hope from legitimate economic activity, the power of the gangs grew as the traditional sources of personal security collapsed. This has now led to the onslaught of children trying to get into the United States under the guise of the anti-child trafficking legislation. The new story focused on Honduras, but I am sure if a reported dug into the details of El Salvador (which used to be one of the star economies of this region) and Nicaragua, the details would end with a similar cause and effect.
This is where foreign aid, one of the original targets for reduction by Tea Party types, can help. If the U.S. had used foreign aid more aggressively to help Honduras in the aftermath of the hurricane, perhaps the economy would not have collapsed and then we would not have the flood of immigrant children that has the Tea Party types so upset.
Now the U.S. does provide plenty of foreign aid to Israel, Jordan and Egypt. That has not stopped chaos from developing on the ground in-between them, but I am not sure more foreign aid would have made a difference there unless it somehow could have been used to improve the Palestine economy and hope for a better life in the future.
This is Israel's challenge. Over 50% of the population of Gaza is under age 18. They have no hope as Gaza is essentially an open aired concentration camp with an economy that keeps getting ruined by the actions of Hamas and Israel's justified response to Hamas. When the Egyptians and Saudi's are rooting Israel on, you know that Hamas has no basis for Israel to be friends with it. Not that Hamas wants to be friend with Israel.
However, Israel must find a way to create hope for the young Palestinians or they will be open to radicalization by Hamas and their kind. And that will only happen if Israel can reward the moderate PLO with a state on the West Bank and provide assistance in developing the economy there. Otherwise, Israel will have chaos on its border and hope will be forever extinguished for young Palestinians.
Without an economy, chaos develops, hope is nonexistent and young people do what young people do, they look for a way to improve their circumstances or they become so angry they become militants.
Successful economies must do what they can to provide hope for young people, not only in their own country, but in countries where the young people can have an effect on the citizens of the successful economy. There is no alternative to this because chaos will fill any void in hope.
That is the common lesson from Central America to Gaza.
Now I know that neither the PLO nor Hamas have been great negotiating entities for Israel, but they represent the Palestinians and Israel has to deal with what they've got. The chaos must end and fostering a Palestine state on the West Bank boosting the moderate PLO is the only way to get the radicalized masses in Gaza to abandon Hamas.
Boosting the PLO means ending and shrinking the West Bank settlements and helping the Palestine economy. Israel can have all the security they want, but if Israel has a never ending source of radicalized young people without hope in Palestine, all there will be is chaos on the border and a declining level of intentional support because the successful nation state always bears the responsibility for being the grown up and creating/maintaining an economy that is successful enough to not foster chaos.
The following articles stimulated this thought.
Thomas Friedman on How This War Ends
Roger Cohen on Global Reaction to Gaza
News Article on Honduras
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)