It Doesn't Predict the Election, But It Does Explain the Divide

I don't know how either political party will adjust to this because Thomas Friedman's column today only explains the different point of views on the economy and immigration.  It ignores Conservative Religious Values (Focus on evangelicals ignore the commonality of their beliefs with Conservative Jews and Muslims) vs Secular beliefs which drive so much of voting today.

Anyway, Thomas Friedman as usual puts into clear concise words something I have been trying to explain in this blog from time-to-time. We will see in November which point of view has more followers in 2016.  I fear for global safety if Donald Trump wins.

Link to Freidman Column


The NYT also had a story about what to do with Bill Clinton if he becomes the 1st Spouse.  I think he should write a blog like this one.  It will take up a lot of his time and keep him out of trouble, which is apparently what happens to him when he has too much time on his hands.  I would follow his writing.

Why I am in the 70% Who Think the Country is Going in the Wrong Direction

The problem with this statistic is you can get a Democrat or a Republican to agree with this statement for very different reasons.  So I will answer for both, with my real answers under the Democratic Banner.

Income inequality:

Democratic Answer:  There is no public debate on what to do about has clearly become a problem.  The GOP keeps protecting hedge funds types who use the carried interest loophole to pay only a 15% tax rate when their income should be taxed at the 39% marginal rate.  Meanwhile, corporations are incentivized to keep production and income offshore because U.S. marginal tax rates are so high vs other countries.  Meanwhile, many U.S. corporations use other loopholes to pay very little corporate income tax.  While Democrats want to close those loopholes and reduce the marginal rates, the GOP wants to cut personal income tax rates and spending for the reduction in revenue.

Republican Answer:  Why is this an issue when all it involves is income redistribution.

Health Insurance:

Democratic Answer:  The GOP wants to repeal and replace the ACA with what we had before and we don't have a single payer plan.

Republican Answer:  We still have the ACA and I still have to buy health insurance, which I would do anyway, but I don't believe anyone should buy health insurance when they can just go on Medicaid eventually when they do get sick.  Then I will complain about the cost of Medicaid going through the roof, which it is anyway because of the ACA and long term care.

Citizens United:

Democratic Answer:  Corporations are not people and should not have unlimited financial means to influence politicians or voters.

Republican Answers: What happened to once and done Supreme Court Decisions.

Roe v. Wade:

Democratic Answer:  What happened to once and done Supreme Court Decisions.

Republican Answer:  The Supreme Court keeps limiting the power of states to make their own rules on this.

Individual Rights:

Democratic Answer:  The GOP refuses to acknowledge that people of all colors and sexual orientations have identical rights to religious whites.

Republican Answer:  Allowing people of all sexual orientations to marry is simply wrong and we don't like to think about why we don't believe in individual rights in this area because we don't have a good answer for it so we allow people to use protecting their religious liberty as the reason for allowing such discrimination.

Terrorism:

Democratic Answer:  This genie refuses to go back into the bottle and we can't do anything about domestic terrorism because the NRA will not allow it.

Republican Answer:  We need to take the battle to them and the Democrats won't send an army to do what needs to be done.  And we don't have an answer for domestic terrorism except to keep Muslims out because we cannot control white supremacists so why should we allow more Muslims in when some of them could do the same thing.

Donald Trump is the GOP Candidate:

Democratic Answer:  Donald Trump is unqualified to be President and will lead us in unknown, probably dangerous, directions on the economy and international affairs.

Republican Answer:  Hillary Clinton and Donad Trump are unqualified to be President and we don't know what kind of Supreme Court justices either will appoint, but we know we need someone like Scalia or Thomas or Alito if we are to make any progress on the ACA, Roe v. Wade and upholding Citizens United.  Better Trump than Clinton since we may have some influence over him.

Global Warming:

Democratic Answer:  The GOP keeps preventing anything from happening.

Republican Answer:  Shit happens and we should just let the market economy adjust for it.  But the Democrats keep making us look stupid on this issue and young people care about it.

Immigration:

Democratic Answer:  We can't ignore 11 mm people who are here working illegally and we inhumanly wrecking families by deporting some people.

Republican Answer:  We aren't doing anything about 11 mm people who are here illegally.

Partisan Politics:

Democratic Answer:  The GOP will not compromise on anything because of gerrymandering.

Republican Answer:  The Democrat's are being taken over by ultra-liberals who will not compromise on anything because of gerrymandering, but gerrymandering protects more Republicans than Democrats so gerrymandering is a good thing that we are not unhappy about.

Transitions Create Societal Anger

We are in the midst of the biggest transition since the Industrial Revolution.  To some extent, it is a continuation of the Industrial Revolution, but it is different.  It combines the industrialization of China and India, with the implementation of the global economy and multi-national companies moving production to the most efficient point of production.  Meanwhile, the oldest industrialized countries have moved on to their newest avenues of comparative advantage in technology, medicine and entertainment.

But what about those left behind.  I used to think those left behind would adjust and get on with their lives and would seek happiness in whatever level of consumption they could afford.  But emotional health and economic health go together and when economic health suffers, emotions can foster desperation.  This is the great failing of trickle down economics otherwise known as Supply Side Economics.

Like all logarithmic functions, tax cuts work best in one range of circumstances which were in place in the 1980's but lose their effectiveness as they become less significant.  This is why assumptions must always be examined for relevance when creating a mathematical system.  The minute one of those assumptions is no longer true, the model is at risk of not working.

That is why capitalism and democracy is the best political economy.  Assumptions are constantly being examined and the model tweaked to accommodate change.  Except when the GOP Congress decided to shut down President Obama and do nothing since 2010, they forgot or never thought about  this basic concept that the world is constantly changing, assumptions can become false and progress requires changes in policy.

But the general population knows when things are not working for them.  And they have some bogeyman out there.  The problem is FoxNews and the conservative entertainment industry have made partisan anger a sport dressed up as News when they parody untruths as News.  Donald Trump would not have had his birther movement without FoxNews playing up and fostering it.

But once a society become angry it is hard to put the genie back in the bottle.  Witness ISIS.  If the Sunni's in Iraq had been treated with decency, they wouldn't have supported ISIS.  But then the Shia in Iraq were just getting even for what Saddam did to them.  Hopelessness brings about desperation and desperate people will use violence because they feel they have nothing to lose.  Trump is feeding on that within the GOP and promoting it with the promise, but no details on any policy to this date, that he will make things better.

The refusal of the GOP to lead and let the government function has failed a substantial % of GOP voters, but instead of gravitating to the Democrats, they followed Fox News into the Trumpism abyss.     Now the only hope is that the Democrats can somehow move to the middle, while acknowledging the anger on the left and right requires adjustments in any number of policies.  I don't have the solution to finding out what all those are as they require hours of study and thought.  But I do know, that the answer is not a police state deporting 11 mm people who are contributing to US economic activity.  But something must be done to create some economic happiness for those left behind.

Pundits are terrified of Trump, but I do not believe Trump voters read or listen to pundits. The following is a sample of pundits giving good reasons to not vote for Trump.

Link to Jennifer Rubin

Link to Michael Gerson

Link to Tim Egan

Link to Mary Duzniak, who points out Trump repeats old Soviet points of view

The Real Risk of Donald Trump Winning

I am not watching much of the GOP convention, nor will I watch much of the Democratic convention.  There is only so much one can take of pandering to preconceived notions.

But the news summaries of what is being said in Cleveland by those giving speeches make one thing clear, the GOP is now the party of hatred (I heard a GOP pundit say that on TV).  And Trump, with his populism, is risking making conspiracy thinking a legitimate line of thought, when IT IS NOT A LEGITIMATE LINE OF THOUGHT.  And once again, he is praising Putin who may be behind the killing of a Russian journalist in Kiev, Ukraine.  I have to admit Putin is getting good at this.  Unlike the killing of the Russian Oligarch in London, he has plausible deniability so far with this because it happened in another country and the evidence was in a fire.

And Trump is saying he would have to study which NATO countries he thought were worthy of protecting from Russia.  He obviously does not understand a nation's obligations to the words that are in Treaty's that they agree to.

The amazing thing about Donald Trump is he has so many thoughts that make him unqualified to be President that a comprehensive list is almost impossible to make up because it would be too long to convince a supporter who just wants to believe what they want to believe.  What has happened to so many white people's ability to think and analyze stuff?  I know truly conservative people who are appalled by Trump just look at the upcoming Supreme Court openings and say Trump is better than Clinton so you have to make the best of a bad situation.  But what about the risks of Trump tearing up any number of treaties and creating chaos is our international relations, both trade and security.  That is not a scenario I want my investment portfolio to experience.

And just when will the public demand that Trump release his tax returns?  He is running as a successful businessman, what about the official record of that?  What is he hiding?  And what about Trump University lawsuits? Why did the judge postpone the trial until after the election?  A sitting President is going to have to testify in a civil trial and be subject to its outcome?  When does the Congress have to get involved in that?

Oy Veh!!!!

The Problem With Conspiracists

When Turkey's President Erdogan started rounding up thousands of people the day after the attempted coup, my immediate mental reaction was did he organize the coup so he could go after people he doesn't like for political reasons?  How could he know who to arrest if he didn't already have information and why would anyone try to organize a coup when failure means a death sentence?
Meanwhile, Erdogan is saying some Turkish political refugee named Gulen, who lives in the Pocono's, is behind the coup; but how can someone in the Pocono's organize thousands of people in Turkey to risk a death sentence by participating in a coup with an unknown probability of success?

Once you think there is a conspiracy, you can believe anything without there being any basis for that belief other than the conspiracy because whomever is behind the conspiracy is so powerful that they can cover up their tracks.  You cannot have a debate with a person who believes in conspiracies.  I know this personally because I have a sister-in-law who believes in them and I have been completely frustrated in those conversations where I have tried to tell her she is wrong.

This is what Trumpism is all about.  Somehow any number of things in the economy are the result of conspiracies and Trump is going to root out whomever is behind them and provide fixes that tear up trade treaties, disrupt relations with countries that are friendly to us, and make friends with other authoritarian types who do conduct conspiracies, witness the doping scandal in Russia not to mention the forceful taking of Crimea under false pretenses, with Trump praising Putin.  I have no idea what Trump will do with China, because he accuses them of manipulating a rising currency while admiring their political process.  And China does do bad things over the internet in the interest of furthering their economic growth, but Trump likes eminent domain (I am not against the societal use of it, but Trump projects are not in the interest of society), and uses bankruptcy as a personal strategy for enrichment, so Trump has a philosophy in common with the Chinese leadership.  Anything goes when it is for oneself.  There are no rules that apply to oneself is the belief of authoritarian types.

I don't like Trump for many reasons, but you would think, absent belief in conspiracies, that more than 50% of the voting population would find Trump unqualified to be President for just some of the reasons that I have.  Yet, Trump is now the GOP nominee and many Republicans are standing with him, at least until they get into the voting booth.  Except for the fact that I fear for the nation with Donald Trump is charge of the nuclear codes, I would find it interesting in November if Trump's vote totals even add up the total number members of the GOP.  How any independent can support Trump is beyond me, but apparently their dislike of Hillary overwhelms a rational measure of Trump.

Oh Vey!!!!

Trump supports Russia over the Ukraine

I promised myself I would not write a blog during the GOP convention.  Instead, the 1st night I am compelled to vent.  Trump forces deleted military support for the Ukraine from the GOP platform.  This continues Trump admiration for Putin.

The Great Value That Comes From Attending Reunions

I have been to two reunions this year.  RSL's 50th and my 45th.  What is really great about attending such events, from the perspective of this blog, is that when you do so you become a member of the tribe that is made up of elementary, junior high and high school classmates.  At the event, there is no other classification that matters and everyone there accepts everyone else as an equal.  There is curiousity and respect for what one has done and experienced without judgement.  So, if the conversation veers off into politics, the discussion is conducted with respect for the other person, and assuming both people are in possession of reasonable points of view, there can be a reasonable discussion of the pros/cons of the policy under discussion.  There might even be an agreement on the goal and only a disagreement on how to get there.

Growing up together creates a psychological comradeship that is more important than all other forms of tribe beyond the family.  That is why each of us is a product of two primal social experiences:  family for many basic things and school for socialization during the extended growing up experience.  Each of us had insecurities as teenagers and most of us develop friendships that help us work through those insecurities.  We know when we get to the reunion, each of us had some experience with many of those there that contributed to our adult make up, and we value those people.  Reminiscing and catching up with the tribe balances our personality by letting us know we are valued and do not know everything.

So what did my school system do well?  It is interesting that my take on this was always how many of our graduating class went to competitive schools.  But what came out this past weekend in both conversations and speeches was that we were all taught to be respectful, hard working, members of a team that knew how to get things done.  That universality of education is more important than where one went to school as I learned about the many ways my classmates have contributed to society.  We were not taught to be political animals which is probably why those of us in corporate management hit ceilings below that which our intellect and capacities might have been worthy of.

This is the value of tribes when they are made of people with different points of view.  As David Brooks and others have said again and again, the basis of heightened partisanship is the isolation of people into tribes of similarity with gerrymandering making the winner indifferent to the point of view of those who supported the loser.  We need a nationwide effort to end gerrymandering.

David Brook's Identifies Another View of Societal Anger

Who knew globalization and the separation of those in the global economy from those who are not would spawn such effects.

Tea Party, Right Wing Neo-Nazi agendas, and all other issues of anger that register as a protest against a change in order.  My words, they identify immigration and migration as the risk, when it is technology and automation that is the real driver of their personal decline that underlies their anger.

Link To Brook's column on Tribal Identification

The Person I Hope is the Next Mayor of NYC

I hope Eric Adams, the Brooklyn borough President, challenges Mayor D'Blasio based upon this excellent piece confronting the dilemma gun rights place on our individual rights to be protected.

Link to The Thin Blue Line

Violence is a direct result of our 2nd Amendment Policies

But the NRA will not hear that or even contemplate the necessity for change.

So both of this week's victims of fearful police were packing lawfully owned concealed weapons and when the possession of the concealed weapons was released to the policeman, his fear overcame his training and he shot the individual dead.  What were these victims being investigated for?  Selling C.D.'s in a parking lot and a broken tail light.  Are those death sentence issues?

While I do believe there are racist police officers (I don't know what else could have motivated the detective in Eric Garner's Staten Island case nor the shooting in the back of the running away man in Charleston, or the assassination of the crazy kid in Chicago), I believe most of these events result from the legitimate fear that police face from the ready availability of weapons that have nothing to do with hunting.

Silly me, my original vision of the NRA was a bunch of hunters, but somewhere along the way that evolved into personal protection.  That is why these two men this week had their weapons, but it was no protection against a fearful policeman.  So no Black Man should be packing a concealed weapon or for that matter any weapon in public.  So the NRA's position that people should be allowed to pack concealed weapons at all times, doesn't apply to African Americans and the Constitution is supposed to be blind to ethnicity and race.  And if the Constitution does not apply to all equally, then that policy is not in compliance with the Constitution.  So we can have gun controls that are Constitutional because the lack of gun control cannot be applied equally to all in a practical sense.

I feel for those Dallas law enforcement officers and their families.  While I castigate police who kill innocent people or deliver a death sentence to a non-death sentence event, I also recognize that police face danger every single day.  The police should not have to wonder if the next person they encounter is going to whip out a gun and shoot them.  That is why I don't understand why more police don't support gun control.  I asked a NYC police officer about that and he said most NYC police officers support gun control, it is police officers in the rest of the country where the risks are seemingly lower that do not.

Which leads me to what motivates terrorism; which is what happened in Dallas last night.  2 or 3 frustrated angry men became militant and used their access to weapons to create a killing field of Dallas police, who when we see their pictures will likely see people of all races.  If we are going to protect police, there have to be fewer weapons out there.  And if the police do not recognize that violence against a group of people which is seen as out of control and unfair causes frustration, angry and militancy, then they are not seeing the problem clearly.

And all that extrapolates into why we cannot embark upon a crusade against Islam.  We need to work with Muslims to put down jihadists and encourage our allies to create economies that work for the entire population.  And Saudi Arabia needs to get control of Wahhabism, which is the basis of their culture, which is no easy task, but a critical one if militant Sunnism is to end.

I doubt Donald Trump will ever understand any of this.

But all this is just a product of our modern GOP.  Paul Kruger explains in the following link.

Link to Krugman column on Trump enablers

Partisan Angles Create Dangerous GOP Policies

God forbid an innocent person ends up on a terrorist watch list and wants to buy a gun and cannot.  To protect that person's rights, the Freedom Caucus will allow all people on the terrorist watch list to buy guns.  And I don't understand why having a law enforcement person has only 3 days to present the case in court or upon such failure the person on the terrorist watch list can still buy a gun.  It's probably a given such failure will occur since the logistical realities are that the gun purchase is occurring hundreds if not thousands of miles from where the individuals with knowledge of the terrorist watch list work, and such experts will not be notified that the gun purchase has been denied and the clock is ticking.

So really conservative GOP partisans are supporting terrorism with their policies.

Meanwhile, many GOP partisans are indifferent to terrorism inflicted upon Muslims.  Twitter accounts don't light up in the same way as they do when there is domestic terrorism against Western Countries with Christian, Jewish and Muslim victims.  And carpet bombing ISIS locations killing all the civilians living there; while some if not many of them are supporters of ISIS, they have the facade of innocence and their deaths will incite militancy in many young men in many countries.  Not to mention create problems for the leaders of our Gulf allies to govern effectively.  Only Muslims can eliminate ISIS.  We can help, but we can't do it alone.

This is not unlike the "All Lives Matter" vs the "Black Lives Matter".  While I happen to agree that "All Lives Matter", police have shot two black men in the last 48 hours during traffic stops when the black men were basically under the control of the police.  Someone should be responsible for the death of Freddie Gray in Baltimore, he was in a police van in handcuffs, and he died.  The shooting in Baton Rouge was basically an out of control white policeman thinking he could shoot his weapon because he wanted to. The shooting in Minnesota occurred last night and I have not seen a video, but the radio report I heard this a.m. seems to indicate another bad shooting.

I know the police have a tough job, but when the GOP partisans don't agree that all lives, including black lives, matter, it is no wonder that minorities have a tough time lining up behind GOP politicians that support such partisanship.  And the police think they are above the law.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump doubles down on his admiration of Saddam Hussein.  If Trump wins, I fear for what he will advocate our police and military do.

Finally, if the FBI had released this email stuff 8 months ago, maybe Joe Biden would have made a different decision.  And then we Democrats would have had a good alternative to Hillary, who made a serious mistake with that email system (I would like to know who recommended it to her), but I never thought it was criminal.  It was just stupid.

But not as stupid as any number of things Donald Trump has said, advocated, or otherwise supported.    Did you know his wall will create lakes where streams dump into the Rio Grande, unless dams are built and where there are dams, you create paths for people to migrate along unless you put border guards at every dam, which means every stream.  And there is no legitimate way to make Mexico pay for it.

Sorry for the rant, but I feel better for having written it all down.

Someone Finally Explains How U.S. Politics Evolved to the Present

I am not counting a resolution after reading this.

"What’s omitted is the capacity of government and the political system to deal with new conflicts. Remember: Politics is about conflict. If everyone agreed on everything, we wouldn’t need politics or democracy. A “dictatorship of experts” would implement a universally accepted agenda. Obviously, this is not the case. The United States is awash in new conflicts that the political system has struggled to contain."


Link to Full Column, well worth reading

Sunday Musings 7/3/16

Aashh, a long hot weekend.  So Donald Trump thinks crooked Hillary is not fit to be President because she had all her emails on an ex-President's computer server.  While that is not a decision I would have made, I don't view that as illegal or disqualifying.  Of course, the FBI is investigating and should they ever reach a decisions (what is taking so long), whatever will be will be.

On there other hand, we all file taxes every year and every Presidential candidate going back to Eisenhower has released tax returns, but Donald Trump does not.  What is he hiding?

And why does he obfuscate his dealing with the corrupt Trump University and his failed casinos, airline, and all the other less than successful businesses Trump has been associated with.  While Hillary may be indicted before the convention (in which case I would recommend the convention nominate Joe Biden as opposed to Bernie Sanders), Trump may be the 1st President to be indicted by a criminal jury after being elected.

Why isn't the right wing media demanding Trump release his tax returns?  That baffles me.