We are in the midst of the biggest transition since the Industrial Revolution. To some extent, it is a continuation of the Industrial Revolution, but it is different. It combines the industrialization of China and India, with the implementation of the global economy and multi-national companies moving production to the most efficient point of production. Meanwhile, the oldest industrialized countries have moved on to their newest avenues of comparative advantage in technology, medicine and entertainment.
But what about those left behind. I used to think those left behind would adjust and get on with their lives and would seek happiness in whatever level of consumption they could afford. But emotional health and economic health go together and when economic health suffers, emotions can foster desperation. This is the great failing of trickle down economics otherwise known as Supply Side Economics.
Like all logarithmic functions, tax cuts work best in one range of circumstances which were in place in the 1980's but lose their effectiveness as they become less significant. This is why assumptions must always be examined for relevance when creating a mathematical system. The minute one of those assumptions is no longer true, the model is at risk of not working.
That is why capitalism and democracy is the best political economy. Assumptions are constantly being examined and the model tweaked to accommodate change. Except when the GOP Congress decided to shut down President Obama and do nothing since 2010, they forgot or never thought about this basic concept that the world is constantly changing, assumptions can become false and progress requires changes in policy.
But the general population knows when things are not working for them. And they have some bogeyman out there. The problem is FoxNews and the conservative entertainment industry have made partisan anger a sport dressed up as News when they parody untruths as News. Donald Trump would not have had his birther movement without FoxNews playing up and fostering it.
But once a society become angry it is hard to put the genie back in the bottle. Witness ISIS. If the Sunni's in Iraq had been treated with decency, they wouldn't have supported ISIS. But then the Shia in Iraq were just getting even for what Saddam did to them. Hopelessness brings about desperation and desperate people will use violence because they feel they have nothing to lose. Trump is feeding on that within the GOP and promoting it with the promise, but no details on any policy to this date, that he will make things better.
The refusal of the GOP to lead and let the government function has failed a substantial % of GOP voters, but instead of gravitating to the Democrats, they followed Fox News into the Trumpism abyss. Now the only hope is that the Democrats can somehow move to the middle, while acknowledging the anger on the left and right requires adjustments in any number of policies. I don't have the solution to finding out what all those are as they require hours of study and thought. But I do know, that the answer is not a police state deporting 11 mm people who are contributing to US economic activity. But something must be done to create some economic happiness for those left behind.
Pundits are terrified of Trump, but I do not believe Trump voters read or listen to pundits. The following is a sample of pundits giving good reasons to not vote for Trump.
Link to Jennifer Rubin
Link to Michael Gerson
Link to Tim Egan
Link to Mary Duzniak, who points out Trump repeats old Soviet points of view
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