Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Iran & Saudi Arabia are Where Peace Will Be Found

And not until they are ready to talk to each other will there be an effective way to combat ISIS.

Thomas Friedman takes that thought a bit further and amplifies it.

He makes a coherent case that putting U.S. boots on the ground is a recipe for disaster without any clear path to a successful outcome because the one thing removing dictators in the Middle East from ruling is to illustrate that the basic building block of a modern civilization is missing.  That building block is a belief that life is not a zero sum game between citizens.  Working together we make things better for everyone.

Link to Thomas Friedman column

And while I am writing, I will note that I picked up a reader in Cambodia.  I don't think internet is that widely available in Cambodia so it must be either a government official or a banker cruising blogs when they should be working.

Saturday, May 23, 2015

Micro Beads Illustrate Why Environmental Regulation is Necessary & Congress & the NSA

I have been concerned about micro-beads every since I first heard of them a few months ago.  They are microscopic pieces of plastic that are put into things like toothpaste, body wash and shampoo.  They are so small they wash into the sewer system, don't get taken out of the water in the sewage treatment plant and go into the ocean and rivers, where they are consumed by fish and any humans that get their drinking water from such a river or desalination plant.

I don't know about you, but I try not to eat plastic because plastic comes from oil and natural gas and probably causes cancer if you get enough of it in your body for a long enough time.  So I applaud the states that are trying to limit the use of these micro-beads and wonder where the EPA has been on this issue since clean water is on their watch.

Of course, if the GOP had their way, there would be no EPA and business would be free to put whatever they want to in the water that we drink, enjoy swimming in, and use to hydrate our food supply.  And I believe business would put everything they could into the water because to do otherwise reduces profits.  And that is why Richard Nixon created the EPA.

Meanwhile, our "we do not lead, we follow the masses", Congress is failing to reauthorize one of the most effective tools we have to monitor terrorists, their use of social media and email and phone calls.  Anyone who believes the NSA is following their boring daily activity if they are not using the buzz words that terrorists use is a conspiracy theorist who is ignoring the simple logistical hurdle that following millions of people without screening for what you are looking for is impossible.

So since I am mentioning terrorism in this blog, they might read it, but then they will realize that I am not a threat and I am not supporting terrorism in any way.  What the bleep should I care if they read this?  And why is the Congress not trying to educate the public about why this monitoring is good for American and not a threat to our civil liberties.

What is a threat to our civil liberties and happiness is the complete and utter b*llSh*t that comes out of the Tea Party wing of the GOP and wants to end the EPA, the NSA, and the Ex-Im Bank, not to mention Heritage Foundation/Romney/ObamaCare, Medicare, medicaid and Social Security.

Monday, May 18, 2015

View From War Zone Security Expert

I happened to sit next to two gentlemen at Breakfast today.  One was discussing his views of what has transpired through time in Iraq and Afghanistan.  I thought that he was a journalist, but when I asked him I learned that his business was personal security and he guarded the journalists in Iraq and Afghanistan.

He was British and very uncomplimentary of war zone journalists in general, stating that they simply report what the Armed Forces tell them and don't do a lot of verification out in the field themselves.  If they did, the American people would have been very unhappy with the reality on the ground.  He on the other hand, in order to protect them, had to know what was going on.

What follows are the most interesting things I over heard as I only asked him 2 direct questions before taking my leave.

The surge that Americans like to think worked so well was only successful so long as money flowed to Sunni factions to stay on the side of Shiite led government.  When the U.S. withdrew, the money stopped flowing, as the Baghdad government wouldn't pay the Sunni's and the factions joined ISIS.

As for leaving American troops there, unless the money was still flowing to buy off the Sunni factions, Americans would be fighting ISIS and supporting the Shiite's (and Iran) even more directly than they are now (and the American Army would basically have to occupy Iraq forever to keep the peace between the Sunni and Shia and both would be trying to kill the American soldiers at various points in time.

He agreed with me that Turkey has to be buying the oil from ISIS and that you have to question how much on our side the Turkish government really is.  He sees secular Turkey in decline and militant Islamic Turkey on the rise and knows more than one secular Turk who has left Turkey to reside elsewhere for the foreseeable future (as do I).

The one good thing about Gaddafi was that he knew how to control Libya.  Libya was a colonial anachronism which should really have been two countries.  Now the East and the West are trying to create those two Libya's but they don't know how to do it peacefully or equitably (oil is not evenly divided) leading to a simmering civil war.

He was slightly more optimistic about Afghanistan now that the corrupt Karzai has left office.  But Karzai is still in Kabul and a political force, so he is not really gone and he wants to protect his corrupt friends.

He doesn't see an end to the Sunni Shiite or Afghan Taliban conflict and doesn't know how to do it if the locals don't want to end the conflict.  Western Troops cannot enforce a peace if the locals don't want it, the locals will start shooing the Western Troops.  That is the reality that I am not sure any GOP Presidential candidate can campaign on.

Friday, May 15, 2015

Science Denial is Expanding because the Internet Fosters Uninformed Doubt Fed by Group Think

Politics is increasingly dominated by rigid adherence to hysterical views that are based upon group think and ignores analytic evidence that such things are improving society.

Both parties feed into this enjoyment of junk culture.   And when millions of people idolize the Kardashians for enjoyment of life, you know there is no accounting for taste or lack of intelligence to reduce confidence to broadcast their beliefs over the internet.

The result of this is science denial across a broad spectrum of issues:  Vaccines, GMO foods, global warming, the goodness of health insurance, the harm in too high taxes, the harm in too low taxes, the need of basic gun control, the need for palliative care for the soon to die, immigration reform (workers would not be working if their wasn't demand for such workers) and I could go on and on.  I will add NIMBY'ism.  Build the pipelines, they are safer than any other form of transport.   No transport is 100% safe.

The common thread to this derangement syndrome that cuts across both political parties is rigid promotion of belief over analytic evidence.  That feeds off junk culture which feeds off the internet allowing Group Think to overwhelm analytic evidence.

It is discouraging because you would expect responsible leaders to try and lead us out of this, but I have my doubts about the average intelligence level of many in politics.  Every scandal in NY State leads my opinion lower about the honesty of any politician.

Saturday, May 9, 2015

Cops'Lives Matter, Young Black Men's Lives Matter, the NRA and Drug $ are the Root of All Evil

Drug's are illegal creating exorbitant profits for those who work in the business of satisfying that demand.  Since it is an illegal business, criminal types are involved and they use guns to intimidate people they want something from.  They typically buy these guns illegally, which is where background checks are essential, but the NRA fights such background checks.

These criminal types also like their guns to have more power, so they like automatic weapons.  Terrorist types, whether they are angry young white teenagers or Islamic jihadists, also like automatic weapons.  And yes, the NRA, fights any limitation on automatic weapons or easily hidden handguns.

Why isn't anyone in the NRA concerned that the Arizona jihadists who went to Dallas to kill Islamic haters dressed in body armor and possessing automatic weapons and handguns that they purchased without a background check or even the ability to purchase.  What if they had simply gone to a Walmart and shot the place up?  How many would have died and who would have killed the jihadists?

Guess who doesn't get to have an automatic weapon because they are inherently dangerous when civilians are around.  Yes, the police, who are in harms way from anyone with criminal designs, don't get to carry an automatic weapon.

So what do they do, it has been proven that enforcing relatively minor rules detailing civilized society behavior like paying your subway fare and not squeegeeing peoples' windshields finds criminal types with guns, so the police go after people committing broken windows transgressions, and these are predominantly young black men who live in drug infested neighborhoods, but are not necessarily involved in the drug trade.

And yes, the far too often rule for police, who are in fear for their lives because there are way too many automatic weapons and hidden handguns out there, is that they are to be aggressive in checking people they stop for weapons and that leads to those civilians not trusting the police.

And far too often, some of these police go to far and kill young black men for no reason other than either their personal fear or their racist desire to kill or intimidate young black men.  Eric Garner was choked to death by a policeman on a sidewalk for doing nothing more than selling single cigarettes.  A 12 year old boy is shot dead holding a toy gun.  A man stopped for a broken tail light, runs away leaving the car which could be traced to him, and is shot to death with 8 bullets in the back.  A man buying a toy gun in a Walmart is shot to death by a policeman because "he looks dangerous".  A man arrested for no good reason has his neck broken in the back of a police transit van when he is all alone.  And I can't even recall what was going on in Wisconsin where 2 young men were killed in Milwaukee for no good reason.  And this is just in the last 12 months where it seems like almost a weekly occurrence that police kill a young black man in either justified circumstances or very questionable circumstances.

So, what should be done.  We could legalize drugs and take the exorbitant profits out of the trade, but that would still leave jihadists with access to automatic weapons and body armor.  So, it is time the NRA became reasonable because our police deserve protection from automatic weapons and hidden handguns.

And that is why I believe the NRA is the root of all this evil that is going on in our society.

And I do believe hunters should be allowed rifles to hunt and protect their families.  No terrorist wants to have to laboriously reload his gun while in action.

Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Pipelines and Global Warming

I am slowly learning how to write a headline and gain readership.  Unfortunately, it is unscientific and  inaccurate.  My cousin, the professional editor would no doubt do a better job.

I have watched one hour of news and am irate.

Another oil train derailed and blew up.  What does it take to convince people that oil trains are dangerous and we need pipelines for oil and natural gas?  You don't reduce consumption by reducing supply.  You reduce demand by producing supply of alternatives.  For the immediate future, we need pipelines!

And for the rare conservative, non-believer in global warming who reads this blog, carbon trapping gasses are now at a 2 million year high.  Don't you think we could do just a little bit to address this issue, such as the original GOP idea of Cap & Trade?

This was cathartic, thank you for reading.

Tuesday, May 5, 2015

Tuesday Cinco de Maya Musings

I had some mediocre Mexican last night to celebrate a day early.  They were out of guacamole and my choices went down from there.

Anyway, more NY State pelicans are now under indictment and the extensiveness of this illegality across both parties is stunning.  We all know about power hungry greedy Sheldon Silver's corruption but just to balance the stench, we now find out that the GOP Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos was using his office to have supported pay money to his son for virtually nothing other than the father son relationship.  And the #2 Republican in the Senate can't even be a candidate to move up because Thomas Libous of Binghamton is facing federal indictment.  The last GOP Senate Leader was indicted also, but he was from Albany and they couldn't get an Albany jury to convict him.  Why do NY voters keep electing these crooks?  And NYC is even worse with idiots on the NYC Council.  The Daily News ripped the Democratic candidate again in the Statin Island Congressional District saying he was vague and made no sense when answering their questions.  The last candidate was termed the most unqualified person they had ever met with running for Congress.  And both are/were NYC Councilmen.

Meanwhile, over in Israel, even African Jews (from Ethiopia some 20 years ago in an airlift that got a lot of publicity) who are in the Army fighting terrorists cannot escape the racism of the hardcore conservative Jews in Israel.  What chance to Arabs have in dealing and living with them?

And when the bad guys in the U.S. like these Jihadist terrrorists from Arizona can legally buy body armor and automatic weapons for an attack on police forces guarding a bunch of idiots practicing their rights to free speech and insulting Islam, you have to wonder why the NRA thinks it is a good idea for everyone to have access to body armor and automatic weapons.  What if they had chosen to attack a softer target that was not guarded?  Carnage would have been the result!


Sunday, May 3, 2015

Small Town Angst That Fuels the GOP Base

I will admit I am putting this forth as a theory only and it is coming straight from my brain with no outside supporting research.  But if I am correct, Democrats are going to have find a campaign solution for this if they want to win in predominantly rural states.

I have long been fascinated by the history of China and read a fair number of books, both historical and fiction about life in China.  China has been a populous place for a long time.  It's government for the longest time was/is undemocratic because the leaders feared what would happen if the masses rose up against them and they only understood the use of force and terror and religion (Confucianism) to convince the masses that towing to the common good of society while the wealth off could reach for and preserve their advantage without fear of being caught.  The effect on the poor was they found comfort in their village and satisfaction for their life in their little world.

That is also how the masses in the major cities of the world find satisfaction with society.  If my little world is calm and to my satisfaction, I am happy.  That is why Jayne Byrne lost to Harold Washington in the 1983 Chicago mayoralty race when she failed to clear the blizzard snow from the neighborhoods.

But the U.S. rural areas find satisfaction in a different ideal, even when it doesn't work for them.  That  ideal is also based upon family, church, and working together in a small community to find satisfaction from society and life.  It is a view that is based upon the bedrock belief that hard work will be rewarded and they will prosper.  And they are profoundly uncomfortable with the idea that the Chinese accept:  we are little individuals in a big society that we have no control over.  We can only control what we are in control of.

Even though globalization and technology have devastated small town economic opportunity for many in the U.S., these individuals continue to possess and treasure that bedrock belief in hard work. I too believe in the benefits and necessity of hard work, but I also understand that one must be educated and participate in the global economy in order to prosper.  The old way of growing a little food and trading with neighbors is not going to provide the funds necessary to pay for health insurance or college or modern tax levels.  But the only thing these rural voters can even remotely control is tax levels and we will see in Kansas if trickle down economics helps restore the rural economy.  I doubt it because capital is global and it is the rare well off person who doesn't want his capital to perform.  They wouldn't be well off if they didn't care about that.

The Democrats must find a way to respect those rural voters while addressing the concerns of all voters.  The rural voters think of themselves as middle class, even if they are working poor, and they resent the view that all Washington D.C. cares about is the rich and urban poor.  Even if ObamaCare, the lower income tax code and food stamps benefit them, they don't believe it.

Overcoming ignorance is difficult but you cannot do it if you don't respect the bedrock beliefs and sell your policies as supporting those bedrock beliefs.  The GOP has figured out a way to build unquestioned support for their policies with their sales job that government is inefficient.  Democrats have to have a laser focus on creating efficient government and how they sell it.

I rambled a bit.  I started out trying to make the point that the U.S., with over 300 million people, may have tipped the point where individual can feel like they have control and don't want to accept what the Chinese accept that the individual in a large society has very limited control.

Friday, May 1, 2015

The Common Link Between the Tea Party and Inner City Youth Who Riot

Capitalism is always creating winners and losers.  I had no idea growing up that I needed to work in the global economy, but I am glad that I did.  Although I just met a retired fire chief who has a more secure retirement than I do and he certainly did not work in the global economy.

But I digress.

Within the U.S., the people enjoying economic advantage now generally work in either the global economy or technology.  The people whose jobs have moved overseas or been eliminated by technology have lost hope.  Those who have little, perform poorly in schools (there are many reasons for that centered on domestic home situations), perceive that they are the target of police, have little hope.  Within the inner city there is the allure of drug cash flow and the attractive (to the young within the inner city) life style that it brings.  There is little focus on the violence it promotes and the risks that come with it.

But the commonality between the Tea Party and the rioting youth everywhere is the lack of hope that the economy will deliver something good for them.  Trickle down economics doesn't work any more because capital is in the global economy and flows overseas where the demand for capital is higher and offering higher risk and returns.  There is inadequate demand within most of the G10 and ample supply so marginal capital has little reason to stay in the U.S. promoting jobs.

I believe most intelligent members of the GOP understand this but pander the party line to insure that the rich keep giving them campaign contributions with the goal of reducing the tax burden on the rich.  But this doesn't help the Tea Party or inner city youth who lack hope.

This is where think tanks should be useful.  I should be reading thought pieces in The New Republic about how we can encourage manufacturing to relocated back to the U.S. now that labor rates are  moving closer together, but I don't.  I know education is important but there is no question that schools in rural or inner cities are not as good as they are in suburbia or smaller cities.  And I am not sure that spending more money on those schools is the answer.  Attending college is important, but in  addition to being inadequately prepared for college, These lower income youth face the specter of too much debt upon graduation and uncertainly on ability to repay said debt.

I don't have an answer for this lack of hope.  I just wish I was reading some thoughtful ideas that I could consider as policies I could support.