Tuesday, November 29, 2016

A Poetic Interlude to Start Today

"Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
With silent lips.  "Give me your tired , your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore,
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

These long ago written words by Emma Lazarus have always made me proud to be a citizen of a country that stood for good and action in support of that good.  That is so far from the spirit of hate that dominates the Tea Party, The Freedom Caucus, and Trumpism.  That spirit of hatefulness is so in contrast to Ronald Reagan's statement:

"Respect for human rights is not social work; it is not merely an act of compassion.  It is the first obligation of government and the source of its legitimacy."

Right now I don't have much hope for such sentiments to be present in the next four years of government policy.  We have a Federalist Society that is salivating at the prospect of getting 3 Supreme Court justices who agree with their beliefs approved over the next 4 years.  What does that mean practically?

Well, you can anticipate Roe v Wade being overturned.  You can anticipate further tightening of state flexibility to control guns.  You can anticipate a reduction of Federal powers in favor of state powers, except on gun control or perhaps a woman's right to choose.

But I digress because my sadness for what such a Supreme Court stands behind is overwhelming when it comes to issues that effect the poor and the Middle Class.

The ironic reality is that the Democrats lost this election because they lost their focus on the economy and instead focused on all these issues of basic fairness.  People want to know that their personal economy is doing well and if it is not, they will vote for someone who they think cares about them.  if you are suffering economically, fairness to others declines as a priority.

It is not clear that the GOP has any policies that will help them nor is it clear whether those to be disappointed voters will ever return to supporting Democrats.  But this is where the Democrat's need to focus.  Unlike those long ago immigrants, few of these angry economic voters want to move to somewhere where there are jobs.  They want the jobs to be where they live now.  There is no path to fixing the Supreme Court other than winning elections in Red State legislatures and governorships and Congressional Districts and that will require a focus on economic policies.

I guess I have returned to a mourning stage after reading those words that inspired me so long ago. Perhaps we can drape the Statue of Liberty in black.

Friday, November 25, 2016

The Problem With Medicare Vouchers

The House GOP is getting ready to blast us with their best ideas to reform government programs in their vision.  Only the Senate (thank goodness) and of course, President Elect Trump, stand in their way.  Since I do not trust Trump, we can only hope the Senate has a sufficient number of rational people to stand the House of Representatives down.

I have seen in the wake of Trump, many consider Speaker Ryan to be a reasonable policy wonk.  He is a policy wonk but what he wants is the out and out dismantling of federal government support for the social safety net:  Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and Food Stamps.

So today we review his plan for Medicare, which would give all old people a voucher to buy health insurance in the market place.  Sounds a bit like ObamaCare but they want to dismantle that.  If ObamaCare is not good for people under 65, why is it good for people over 65?

That is rhetorical question of course.  If Ryan knew of a politically viable way to end Medicare, he would, but he knows he can't do that.  So what he wants to do is end traditional Medicare, which is a PPO system with the Federal government setting the price it pays for each service.  This is the so-called Plan A & B combination and most people with money buy a supplemental policy to cover the holes in Ab& B.  What Ryan wants to do is make everybody only able to use Plan C.  He would give people a voucher to pay for a Plan C.

Plan C's are a private sector health insurance plans for people over 65.  They are generally cheaper to the citizen than a Plan A& B with a supplemental plans, but in a Plan C you are actually in an HMO.  If the Dr's in the HMO were constant, this might be OK, but the HMO's and Dr's are constantly in a battle over pricing and which Dr's are in a specific Plan C is in flux from one year to the next.  So you have a condition, you like your Dr and he suddenly is gone from your Plan C and you have to get a new Dr.  This might be OK at 65, but how many 85 year olds can manage this well.

What is wrong with Plan A & B? Nothing, except it is a Federal Government Plan that controls costs and allows people to go to the Dr of their choice, who accepts the price that the government will pay. This all works very well for most older people who do not want it to change.  If they do want a Plan C and an HMO, they go into Plan C.  If they are like my wife who likes her specific Dr.'s very well, you go into Plan A & B with a supplemental.

And what happens in the future if the cost of Plan C's exceeds the value of the vouchers?  The elderly citizens of America will have to find the additional $ in their budget to pay for health insurance.  And guess who will have to approve paying for new treatments or end of life care, the private insurance companies who did such a good job of controlling health care expense before ObamaCare.  These private sector insurance companies are also perfectly comfortable performing the Death Panel Role that Governor Palin was so afraid of in ObamaCare.  All these companies say is, "The Procedure is not approved,  good luck."

What the House GOP wants to do here is bad policy for the citizens of the country.


Thursday, November 24, 2016

Happy Thanksgiving

And to my foreign readers, I hope you have a holiday that is as much fun as this one is for America.

Family/Friends get together.  There are sports to watch.  Different people bring their favorite dishes and everyone contributes to the get together.  Traditions are maintained and evolve.  One of my favorite memories was my 1st Thanksgiving away from the home cycle with friends at 5050 South Lake Short Drive.  We ate way too much and I learned pacing is important.

There is little to be happy about politically except that there is the reality that this election will wake up the Democratic party that it needs to have more balance.  I do believe the Democrats have more balance than the GOP but they didn't demonstrate it in this election and it cost them some key states. Hillary is now 2 mm votes ahead nationally, but her margin of victory was concentrated in the 500 or so counties that produce 65% of GDP and participate in the global economy.  The other 2500 or so counties produced this election result.  Since raising the minimum wage, providing access to health insurance, respecting the rights of all individuals, focusing government policy on education and training people who want to be trained and maintaining infrastructure are all Democratic policies that should resonate in these rural areas, it is clear that the Clinton campaign got overly focused on Trump and forgot the policy message.  For that colossal failure, the Democratic party staff needs new blood. The old ways did not work and if it is not fixed at the local state level by 2020, the gerrymandered advantage that the GOP has will be maintained and there will be no progress.  This is the critical path for the Democrats.

Now what is there to be happy about.  I could be happy about some things Trump has done but since I l believe him to be 100% only about his personal wealth, I don't trust him.  I think the only way to approach Donald Trump and his GOP, is with brute force and zero Trust.  That puts a huge burden on the Senate Democrat's, but they need to pick their battles carefully so a balanced message about the party can be maintained at the local level.  Unfortunately, at least in my opinion, that means a liberal Supreme Court is toast.  Fighting the battle there will not deliver the right message in those 2500 counties.  It needs to be fought in the arena of economic justice because this election was decided by anger at the gridlock that the GOP generated.  So if gridlock is to be the result, the Democrats need to make sure the GOP is responsible for it, unless there is a clear economic message to be gained by the Democrats.

That is the great tragedy of this election.  The leadership of the Democratic Party had a chance to maintain certain Supreme Court positions about justice and eventually reverse some of the more extreme decisions that have given corporations rights that belong only to individuals.  They blew it. As an individual who cares about equality and fairness, I am disgusted by the Alt-Right Supreme Court members.  This election was a once in a life time opportunity for the Democrats to do something about this trends.  Now I will likely be a elderly person before a similar opportunity appears.  Meanwhile, an unknown number of issues regarding fairness and equality will be decided in favor of less fairness and less equality.

Fortunately, I don't work in the political arena.  So I can only blog about it and vote.  I live in a globalized city and can hope that the state I live in manages to maintain access to health insurance for many.  I will focus my concerns on things I can control like my golf game where I got a tip last time out which may make a big difference.  I don't understand why all those instructors didn't mention my need to stand taller.

Anger is exhausting as I previously wrote and the holiday season should be a time of joy and happiness.

Saturday, November 19, 2016

Alt Right Has a Seat at the Talbe

This is an unfortunate truth about this election.  But the Alt Right is not a group in agreement.  I picked all this up in my waking up haze listening to "On the Media' on NPR.  There are 4 Groups which I cannot recall here and their objectives vary quite a bit in emphasis.

But one guy who sounds reasonable spoke with clarity.  I will get to why I do not agree with him later in this blog.

He believes all groups vote within their self interest and white people should do the same.  He believes individuals have a right to discriminate against anybody they wish to discriminate against, but the government does not have a right to such discrimination.  He believes that whites should congregate in like communities and be free to practice their discrimination against any individual within that community that they want to.  Minorities within that area can move away if they don't like it.  He thinks all ethnic groups behave this way already, but the government only enforces whites to not behave this way.  He believes that this is the essence of American liberty and the government forcing heterosexual white people to accept gay marriage and any other number of issues like that is an affront to their civil liberty and that anybody who doesn't agree with them is closed minded and ignorant.

I like to think of myself and open minded and knowledgable, which is why I write this blog to educate the world about truths as I understand them from my education, experience, reading and travel.

And I do not agree with him.

The problem with his train of thought, is that when groups congregate into like minded people, not everybody within that area (lets call it a "State") will be of the same race or religion.  And when like minded people congregate they gain political power.  And historically, they used the state to exercise political power and discriminate against individual and minority groups.  While some minorities can and do move away from this State, others cannot afford to and have the right to stay where they are. That is the history of African Americans, Jews, Asians and Gay people in America.  Making that exercise of power to discriminate against anybody illegal is the essence of the Civl Rights Act of 1964.  And it is Federal control over State's Rights on the ability to authorize legal discrimination of individuals against individuals because when individuals congregate together and act in a certain way, even if they feel that is their individual right, they are acting as a government body.

While the individual may have the right to do something within their small environment, as a group they do not have such rights as even this individual acknowledged that the government cannot discriminate.  So forcing a baker to provide a cake for a gay wedding is perhaps a step too far, but when it comes to drawing the line in such a way, it is a slippery slope from one cake, to other forms of discrimination and criminality against minorities as group think.  That is why there can be no legally sanctioned discrimination by individuals at a State level.

This is where the real fight in Congress is going to be on Alt-right issues.


Friday, November 18, 2016

Insomnia Returns, Clarity is the Result

This is for my fellow Democrats and members of the Global Economy.

Hillary won the popular vote and lost the Electoral College because last minute deciders in the Rust Belt went overwhelmingly to Trump.  These last minute deciders were traditional Democrats who have felt abandoned by the Democratic economic message.  The ironic thing is President Obama tried to help some of them with infrastructure spending that was not approved by the GOP led Congress. So it will be a horrific statement on GOP partisanship over the good of the country if Trump proposes and the Congress approves plans for infrastructure spending.

But that is not my primary message.  Democrats need less change in actual policy issues they support than they do a change in messaging.  This election from the Democratic side was focused on civil liberties and equal rights.  I care about those issues, but as a former President Clinton once said, "It is the economy."  Hillary did not champion the economy and her "deplorable's" comment, while in a speech that was otherwise respectful toward these people who care 1st and foremost about their economic interest, contributed to a perspective within those rural people that the members of the global economy around the big cities do not care about them and do not respect them.  That needs to be changed if the Democrats are to win the Electoral College.

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

I Will Be Writing Far Less

There is nothing I can say here that will change what I believe will be a political hell hole in Washington D.C. when either Trump realizes he can only do so much without Congressional votes and the Congress has two unmovable objects which hate each other (Freedom Caucus vs the Democrats).

About the only things I can think of that will really help Trump's supporters get the employment they sought with their votes, is corporate tax reform and infrastructure spending.  I think Trump will be more focused on cutting personal tax rates and the Freedom Caucus will be against infrastructure spending.  Meanwhile, if the ACA is repealed but Insurance companies cannot protect themselves against cherry picking people who get sick and then buy insurance, the cost of health insurance will rise even more than it has.  So the working white stiff in podunk town will not see better employment and will see the cost of health insurance become unaffordable under GOP policies.

I suspect they will be mad as hell when that happens and the Democrats will have to figure out some policy mix that I haven't thought of to campaign on against the GOP.

So that is it for now.  I have a part-time job and will be volunteering doing tax returns for the working poor and elderly, so I will not have much time to rant here.  But check back periodically, I may get inspiration once in a while.

And hope the U.S. East has a snowy winter.  We are in a drought and need H20 to fall from the sky.

Thursday, November 10, 2016

I am Working my Way Through the Grieving Process

I have been through the phases of anger, shock, disgust, acceptance and decided how I will deal with a Trump Presidency.  The 1st thing I must say is I voted against my economic interest because as a former member of the 1% I have substantial savings and as long as the Trump policies do not cause a U.S. recession/depression (which if he implements them, they will) I will personally be fine.

I think Trump understands that he won the election because people were angry about the effects of globalization upon their local communities.  That is why the Democrats lost rural white Democratic voters.  So I think Trump will back off some of his more extreme economic policy positions, but as with anything with this despicable human being, we don't know for sure.  But hotel occupancy rates and luxury destinations do not do well in economic downturns. The key question is when he wants to increase infrastructure spending will the Freedom Caucus let him or will they be overruled by the Center.

Hillary won the popular vote (barely) so the issue for Democrat's is what do you do about gaining back your market share in the rust belt without upsetting your ultra left wing types.  The interesting thing to me is that Jill Stein did not see the damage she could do to women's rights.  Although she cost Hillary only two states (Michigan & Wisconsin), that would not have given Hillary 270 electoral college votes and the election would have gone to the House where you know who would have been elected.  But with the absolute importance of the Supreme Court as an Issue (but not one that I believe decided the election), you would think Ms. Stein would have considered this issue.  Of course, maybe she did and she is Pro-Life, so she might be thrilled about his possibility as opposed to global warming about which she is passionate about.

I have written since the inception of this blog as to the difficulties in designing policies that help those left behind by globalization because advances in technology are such a complementary factor to that globalization.  So I have no idea what Trump will actually propose and try to implement because I don't think he knows.

So I have decided to not watch T.V. News (sorry NewsHour and CBS News) because I cannot stand Donald Trump's voice.  I will just read the newspapers that RedStateVT thinks are all biased.  We will see where the Democrats filibuster and thank goodness I will be on Medicare in 20 months. Whatever, the GOP does about Health Insurance in 2017, I will only have to live 8 months in 2018 with their new design.  Knock on wood, I may even be healthy enough to risk going uninsured for 8 months although that would not be my 1st choice given the importance of catching cancer early and the Russian Roulette that cancer is to anyone over the age of 50.  And we know Donald Trump supports Social Security and Medicare, about the only concrete thing he promised was that he would protect those programs.  Of course, he could change his mind about that.

Meanwhile, the law suits against Trump University will continue in late November so we could have a sitting President sitting in a trial testifying about his fraudulent corporate design.  In addition to all the despicable words that he has said and tweeted, his unethical business practices, he may well have sponsored a fraudulent activity in Trump University.  We have elected a potential guilty as charged criminal as President.  Will there be an Impeachment if he is found guilty in this civil trial?

I don't know, but it won't change the damage to liberal beliefs that this election will result in because of the Supreme Court.  And Ralph Nadar has no regrets about his costing Al Gore Florida in 2000.  I wonder what he really believes in.  I think he might be right wing undercover plant.  I blame Ralph Nadar more than anybody else for the bleak future of liberal beliefs over the next 20 years.  What is it with the Green's.  I am pro-environment, but not at the expense of economic growth and winning elections.  If you don't win elections, the anti-environment people win the elections.

Meanwhile, legal marijuana was on 7 ballots the other day, and every result I could find resulted in passage.  So, not every liberal cause is in jeopardy.

Saturday, November 5, 2016

This Election is Costing Me Sleep, because Donald Trump will implement certain policies if Elected

I have not slept soundly through the night for some time now. I wake up between 3 & 4 or 5, relieve my prostate system, put buds in my ears and listen to the BBC.  There is nothing better to put me to sleep than the phrasings and tonality of a British accent.  I thank my 80+ year old friend Ed in BTV for turning me on to this.

But of course this morning they were discussing the U.S. election and my fears of what a Donald Trump win would mean overcame any inclination to return to sleep.  So I got up and began to type.

A speaker, unidentified to my brain said that Donald Trump does have 3 policies that you can count on him implementing and that is the basis for much of his support which has captured 3 groups of supporters:  Private Sector Union Workers, Tea Party supporters and America First/Isolationist types.

1.  Lower taxes and Reduced Free Trade

2.  Stop immigration

3.  No more promotion of democracy and nation building in Foreign Policy

That is what in my mind allowed Donald Trump to be nominated.  To that I would add the following which has allowed Evangelicals and Business types to get in line behind Trump even if they don't agree with #'s 2 & 3 or parts of #1.

4.  Do nothing about Global Warming & reverse Obama's Executive Orders

5.  Repeal ObamaCare

6.  Appoint Supreme Court Justices who will overturn Roe v. Wade and support prior decisions on Guns and Corporations have a Right to Free Speech and money is a form of speech.

Now what can you say for sure about such policies and this is why I could not sleep anymore.

Donald Trump's policies will end the America that represents Hope and that is the basis upon which so many Americans take pride in their country.  And why so many in the world want to be here if they could.  So basically Trump's policies are aimed at killing the founding premise of this country.

Why do I say that?  Well look at what each of these polices will actually accomplish.

1.  Lower Taxes will result in less government spending on defense and Human Services because Trump has said he will not touch Social Security or Medicare.  If he stops paying interest on our debt, which he has said he might do, there will be a financial crisis and my ability to support myself from my investments will be harmed.  Tearing up Trade Agreements will reduce corporate profits because business flows are build upon the rules that exist and changing them is not a positive.  We could have a depression from Trump's economic policies if he balances the budget.  That will crush hope.

2.  Removing 11 mm people from the U.S. will reduce GDP and cause a recession.  It will also require a police state apparatus that Trump can use for his own purposes as President.  That will crush hope.

And when doing #1 & #2 won't return the jobs to the Americans who support Trump because America doesn't have a manufacturing crisis.  We produce as much today as we did 30 years ago with far fewer workers because of technology advances and Trump cannot roll that backwards.  So that will crush hope when those avid supporters realize there is no change for them in Make America Great Again.

3.  Allowing Authoritarian Governments to operate unchallenged will crush the hope for those people who are subject to them.

4.  Doing nothing about Global Warming will depress anyone who cares about this issue and that will crush hope.

5.  ObamaCare needs to be adjusted but Trump has not said what he will do to replace it, only that he will repeal it as his 1st act of legislation.  So what will repeal actually result in.  Insurance companies will go back to discriminating against people with pre-existing conditions.  People who cannot afford their health insurance without subsidies will go uninsured again.  There will be chaos in hospital finances as the uninsured who cannot pay will flock to emergency rooms when they must get medical care.  The hospitals will seek to get reimbursement from those who can pay just like they used to and everybody's health insurance will cost more.  Unless, in the repeal, the Congress repeals the requirement that passed under Ronald Reagan that hospitals must provide care to anybody who shows up at their door (not to mention that the Hippocratic Oath might require them to do that also).  Anyway, this will destroy hope.

6.  Overturning Roe v Wade will be a slow moving issue.  We don't know what states will be allowed to do vs. what Congress might pass as national policy once the Supreme Court rules.  But we do know at least that if states are allowed to do their own thing, women in some states will be allowed to make their own decisions.  But women in other states will not have that choice and if they don't have the money to go to another state, they will bring into this world a child that may be unloved, may be brought up in unfortunate circumstances, may have physical and mental challenges, or may be an orphan at birth because the mother could not be saved because of new laws forbidding an abortion even for the safety of the mother's health.  That will destroy hope.

So that is what the Republican Party stands for today and it is depressing to me that 40% to 45% of Americans can support that vision.  That is not a country I want to live in because there is no hope.

How can there be hope when a person's unrestricted right to a gun is more important than my right to not be shot by someone with a gun?  How can there be hope, when the police state has the right to take or shoot anyone who fits a profile?  How can there be hope, when access to health insurance is dependent upon an employer being able to afford to help workers?  How can there be hope, when women are second class citizens if they don't comply with Evangelical views of how the world should operate.

I was raised in a small town which took pride in every way about the story of immigration and hard work in a society that rewarded effort.  It was quietly religious, but private about religion and didn't care what a neighbor's religion was.

My brain says how do I deal with this if Trump wins, but my heart cannot contemplate this eventuality.  My brain says maybe I should just commit suicide because I know I will be depressed and fearful about this loss of hope, but my heart cannot go down that path.  I have things I still want to do in this life.  I will probably need lots of Asian medical treatments to reduce my stress which my anger will create.  I am angry that so many people can support policies that destroy hope.  Hope has been the basis of my being from my earliest days.  I didn't really realize that until the end of this election.

Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Why Trump is Far More Unethical and Dangerous Than Hillary

Who knows what is in the pervert Hot Dog's emails?  And if he wasn't married to Hillary's aide, Huma, it wouldn't affect her.  In fact, since the FBI doesn't know what is in those emails, I don't know how they know it might involve Hillary.  But they got their subpoena and now they can figure it out.

I suspect it will be nothing.  But that has not stopped some people (I cannot imagine who they are or on what basis they decide who they will vote for), from saying to pollsters that they are changing their vote from Hillary to Trump.  I guess they have forgotten all the unstable things he has done.

Michael Gerson looks at the issue from more objective eyes than I have, but reached the same conclusion.  As a nation we would have to be absolutely crazy to elect Donald Trump our President.

Link to Gerson column

and Jennifer Rubin piles on with Trump's Russia smoke.  He had a server connected to a Russian bank for private communication.

Both of Gerson and Rubin are GOP pundits.

Link to Rubin column