Obama vs Rick Perry

There is good news and bad news in this, in my mind, likely 2012 election choice.  The good news is that President Obama can win reelection if he doesn't over promise.  The bad news is that if he over promises, Gov. Perry will be Bush II on steroids in taking the country down the path of ruin.

First, Obama's history of over promising.  The President inherited a financial crisis and thought that a traditional fiscal policy would bring unemployment down.  Financial crisis take 5 to 7 years to pass through  any economy (and longer if you are Japan).  What the Fiscal stimulus did was preserve the 91% employment rate and prevent unemployment from going to 12% to 15% (or higher).  Shovel ready projects were not dramatic enough to dramatically increase employment.

Now the President is touring the Midwest and talking jobs.  Well Jobs are going to determine the next election, but there is only so much the government can do.  Infrastructure is the big one I know of, but beyond that the issues are education, immigration policy, free trade agreements and tax reform.  None of these work quickly to reduce unemployment.  So I hope the President can find a message that shapes this package into hope because anything that smells of another fiscal stimulus package may well fall on deaf ears with the majority of centrist voters in the key Midwest states.

Now Gov. Perry. He wants to make the Federal Government as inconsequential in every citizen's life as possible.  So, he will want to cut taxes and starve the Federal Government of its ability to pay for any social safety net.  On access to healthcare, watch the 60 mm uninsured figure go higher.  Watch only the rich have access to good healthcare (and I am not sure how rich you will have to be).  He wants to reduce Federal Regulation starting with Dodd-Frank.  Wait-a-minute, it was a failure to regulate during the Bush II Administration that created the mortgage mess and put us into the Great Recession that feels like emerging from a Depression when it comes to jobs.  Who knows what other attacks he will conduct on Social Security, food safety, a well run FEMA, a well run SEC (any more Ponzi Schemes?) etc.

Perry is someone who is guaranteed to scare the independent voters.  All Obama has to do is show that he cares about controlling the fiscal deficit while keeping access to the Social Safety net viable for all, and hopefully, find a way to create some jobs without over promising.  Then he will be two term President and save us from a repeat of a disastrous Republican presidency.