Why Russia Matters - Follow the Money

I always enjoy finding I have written something before a pundit columnist writes about it.  It is not that I think they read this blog, it is just enough encouragement that I do have some original value when I write.  So thank you Ruth Marcus for discussing the concept of outrage overload.

The New Republic came earlier this week and one article was a very long cataloging of how Trump's Manhattan properties have been used by Russian mobsters to launder money, conduct other nefarious activities and in general help to enrich Donald Trump.  Trump was on the proverbial financial ropes in the early 1990's when individual wealthy Russians started buying his condominiums.  These sales helped make his condominium business succeed and that success, along with the Russian mob's continued buying of these condominiums, morphed into Trump licensing his name so that the Real Estate business provided an annuity income to him.  It doesn't take too much extrapolation to see the possibility that the Russian mob through their condominium ownership in the U.S. is responsible for much of Donald Trump's income.

So without the benefit of Trump's Tax Returns which might reveal a path to unraveling this relationship, we are left only with the possibility that the Special Prosecutor will unravel this mess with the powers that they have.  I saw something that suggested they can get the IRS to give them the tax returns.  And of course, Trump always signals the path to follow because he is compelled to be a bully.  This week he tweeted, and his lawyers went on TV stating, telling Bob Mueller, that Trump's finances are out-of-bounds, and not part of Mueller's charge of what to investigate.  Go Bob Go.  At least key members of the GOP spoke publicly saying Trump is wrong about the mandate of the Special Prosecutor and Bob Mueller can go wherever he wants to with his investigation.

As I have stated from the get-go, I believe Donald Trump is using the office of the Presidency to enrich himself in a manner that is certainly unethical and almost certainly in violation of the Emoluments Clause, so I believe all this will be the path to impeaching this poor example of humanity.  I just don't know what it will take to get the House GOP to allow this to come to a vote and get 30 to 40 members of the House GOP to agree with the Democrats that Impeachment is warranted.  Perhaps a Trump firing of Bob Mueller will get them moving.

So why do the Russians like Donald Trump?  At this point, I believe it is one of two possibilities.

1.  Trump is in financial cahoots explicitly with certain Russian individuals through the Condominium Business and the Russians think they can influence him in important ways.  As an example, we have cut off supplying arms to Syrian Rebels who have been fighting both Assad and Al Qaeda and ISIS.  These are obviously the good rebels and you wonder why Trump would agree to stop supplying them with arms.  The only possible answer is Russia wanted this.

2.  Trump is a naive simpleton who thinks anybody who is rich and buys his properties is an OK person.  He cannot contemplate that money laundering is bad, the sources of such money bad, or that free wheeling criminal activity based within property he developed is bad.  He loves being rich so badly that he is blind to how anybody else got rich and sees no evil in their wealth.   In this case, the Russians are well aware of his simpleness and know how to manipulate him.  The result is the same as the 1st path, it is just that this alone is probably not a criminal activity by Trump or his company, it simply shows unethical the collective enterprise is.

Either path can explain why Trump's people took so many meetings with the Russians during the campaign.  What I cannot explain is why Jeff Sessions had so many meetings with the Russians.  I thought he was a believer in Ronald Reagan's view of Russia that you have to Trust, but Verify everything with them.

And now to the overload this week.  Politically D.C. is in a chaotic place because Trump is a terrible manager.  He has no concept of political process.  The examples this week are too numerous for me to go into.  So I will provide a link to a column that goes through the White House portion of this chaos.  For the Congressional chaos you will have to read past issues of newspapers, if you didn't already.

Link to Column about chaos in Trump Administration


Meanwhile, what is wrong with Poland?  Why are they ending the Independent Judiciary?  Is Poland going to return to a Dictatorship?  I have enough trouble keeping up with things in the U.S.  Poland was my favorite investment when I was an Emerging Market Portfolio Manager and at one time, I was so comfortable with their direction, that my portfolio was the single largest holder of their US $ bonds.

Sunday Musing 2/28/2016

Ah, Leap Year.  We get one more day of February and an extra day of this mindless endless campaign to be the next President, which of course happens every Presidential election.  You think the founding fathers intentionally wanted an extra day of campaigning for the Presidency or it just happened that way with the timing of the founding of the nation?

Did you know Donald Duke endorsed Donald Trump?  So the KKK supports Trump.  What does that make Trump supporters and endorsers like Chris Christie and Sarah Palin?

There is a movie named "Whiskey Tango Foxtrot" coming out in March based upon a book written by a journalist who was in Afghanistan and Pakistan for several years in the late 2000's.  The one pertinent comment she made about the whole Western approach to the issues with the Taliban and ISIS is her hope for her movie. "Maybe more people will start talking about a holistic approach to the region rather than the Whack-a-terrorist game we seem to be playing." But we won't expect any of the GOP candidates to understand the need to explore that.

Meanwhile, with Hillary's big win and her obvious qualifications to understand the issues of the Presidency, I am still troubled by her baggage and will fill in the dot for her name because the alternatives are so awful.  Bernie Sanders cannot achieve his dreams and he will be as ineffective as Barack Obama has been.  How can President Obama win so decisively and not have longer coat tails?    And there is no need for me to go on at any length about how the GOP candidates refuse to propose policies that will actually help people.  If they would discuss how they would replace Obamacare while not allowing insurance companies to charge more for pre-existing conditions, balance the budget and keep the government operating to protect the public safety, I would consider voting for a GOP candidates.

On that last point, the Zika Virus certainly shows the need for a public health system and the CDC.

At least Hillary is qualified to be President.  But I understand the American desire to have someone new in the Presidency.  Newness brings hope and a possibility of change.  When someone has been part of the national political scene for 24 years and counting, while that brings qualifications, it also means many voters just simply want to move on.

And Ross Douthat went on a rant today about how Obama is responsible for the rise of Donald Trump.  While Douthat does acknowledge some Republican responsibility for the support of Donald Trump by Reagan Democrats (I would point out that I was Reagan Democrat, but I became a RINO and then returned to the Democrats), he then goes on to lay the blame on the Imperial Obama Presidency.  I am virtually speechless in my political rage at this.  Does Mitch McConnell and the let's ruin this Presidency deserve no blame for the "Imperial Presidency".  What about the absolute need for the government to operate and protect the people?  What about GOP punditry that did not rail against the GOP for failing to negotiate and compromise?  As I wrote yesterday, Democracy requires compromise.

And Obama asked the Congress to authorize the activities in Syria against ISIS and the Congress refused.  So when Douthat says "The current President has expanded executive authority along almost every dimension:  Launching wars without Congressional Authorization, claiming the power to assassinate American citizens", he is going against the grain of actual GOP support for all this and a GOP desire to actually do more of the same.

So my only takeaway on Dothan's column is that he has gone off the rail in his angst about Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio dominating the GOP.

link to Douthat column