Monday, May 23, 2011

AP Poll: 54% & 59% believe Budget Balance possible without touching Entitlements

No Room in the headline for the details.  54% believe that Medicare does not have to be touched and 59% believe that Social Security does not have to be touched in order to balance the budget.

This means that less then 50% of the population understands that there is a problem with entitlements and something must be done.  Social Security's problem is over the longer term and The Fiscal Deficit Commission suggested how to do it.  Raise the retirement age from 66 to 70 over 35 years and change the inflation rate from Labor Rate increases to CPI.  Both reasonable paths if the partisan divide can be bridged.

As I have written now numerous times, something needs to be done for Medicare and the Affordable Health Insurance Act of 2010 ("Obamacare" to its detractors) starts the process of addressing Medicare.  Does more need to be done?  Almost certainly, but it will only get done if the partisan divide is bridged.

How can the divide be bridged?  The Republicans have to allow revenue rates to be raised in an intelligent fashion to give the Democrats the cover to agree to cutting unaffordable (after the revenue increase) elements. The Democrats have to give the Republicans cover by agreeing to spending cuts that will balance the budget eventually after the revenue increases are realized.

This is what the Deficit Reduction Commission was all about and it is time both parties started working on it together instead of fighting over partisan angles.

Of course, I think the Republicans are not up to this because they know that the 2012 - 2016 cycle is their chance to appoint justices that will bury a woman's right to choice.  It is unlikely that the older liberal justices will be on the court in 2016 and if Obama fails to win reelection, it is only a matter of time until Roe v Wade is overturned and buried by the a solid conservative majority on the court.  This is the real decisive issue for the 2012 election and the Republicans do not want Obama to be able to claim a victory on balancing the budget prior to the election.  Their only hope for beating him is the claim of fiscal irresponsibility even when they are not being honest about how to achieve a responsible budget.  Democrats are only marginally better so there is a low probability of reasonable progress on this until after January 2013.

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