Friday, December 7, 2012

The Labor Stat's are correct, Jack Welch is wrong

I read an article this week by two economists about the need for policy makers to manage policy with recognition that the baby boomers are retiring.  While that should be self evident, it is not as seen in policy proposals by both parties.

1st, the headline.  200,000 baby boomers are now retiring every month.  Yes, RedStateVT, you are in that number a couple of years ago.   That means, the economy only needs to generate 100,000 incremental jobs a month to absorb new entrants to the workforce.  Since the economy has been averaging @150,000 jobs a month for the last 2 years, the labor statistics are correct and Jack Welch's snide Tweet was factually wrong.  He should apologize to the professionals who assemble this data.

2nd, the GOP was correct in rejecting President Obama's fiscal stimulus proposal aimed at improving the rate of improvement in the labor rate.  We should spend more money on infrastructure repair, but at the same time we have to improve the fiscal balance. Now is the time to start that process.  We should pay for infrastructure by reducing tax subsidies to industry.

3rd, the GOP really blew it in under Bush II.  We needed those budget surpluses to pay for the baby boomers legitimate claims on entitlements starting now.  Those claims are going to be worth 3% to 4% of GDP for the next 30 years and we are going to pay for them somehow.  It would have been great to be saving for them by paying down the outstanding debt by not having the Bush Tax Cuts for the last 10 years and pay for the War on Terror from current cash flow.

4th, Simpson Bowles is the only path to managing the increasing claims on entitlements and fostering economic growth to pay for them.  If only the Politicians would lead and not pander to the extreme right and left.

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