Crimea, Putin and China. This is not Democracy at work.

As I wrote earlier, I expected Crimea would play out with national agitation for a referendum, then a vote would take place saying the majority of the people wanted to return to being part of Russia (after all if Khruschev hadn't given it to the Ukraine after having a few too many, it would never have been part of the Ukraine), then there would have been negotiation between Russia and the Ukraine and a deal would have been struck returning Crimea to Russia.

That would have been a normal and proper path.  But Putin is a my way or the highway type of guy and seems to be losing touch with a balanced approach to the world.  I guess power must be going to his head as he seems to be an autocrat seemingly approved by a democratic vote, but where the votes don't seem to be completely free anymore.

I hope my old firm sold everything after I left, because I would not invest in Russia anymore.  Even owning stuff close to the state is no longer assessable risk, but faces political forces that cannot be assessed.  That is too bad.  If Obama wants travel restrictions to hurt, he is going to have to forbid the oligarchs who own stuff in NYC from traveling here.  That would mean the guy who owns the Nets and his daughter who lives in a $20 mm condo in midtown.  Putin has not faced the fury of a 20 something princess daughter who can no longer live in her NYC condo.  Of course, I doubt Putin is very supportive of women's rights and would probably tell the father to get the daughter married and producing young Russians to offset the population decline.

I mean life in Moscow can be pretty good if you have billions, but it isn't NYC and America.

Anyway, you would think U.S. Conservative Hardliners would understand Putin wasn't going to let Crimea go.  It would be the equivalent of the U.S.A. letting Guantanamo Bay go back to Cuba and can you image what John McCain and the neo-cons would have to say about that!

The really interesting conundrum is for China.  They preach no interference in internal affairs of nations and view borders as sacrosanct.  Using a vote as pretense to ratify a land grab is not what they want to see.  After all, few Taiwanese would vote to become part of the PRC again.  And who knows how Tibet or the Uyghurs would vote.  So China should be on the side of putting Putin down, but I doubt that would happen.  Autocrats do not criticize other autocrats.

We may not like the partisanship of American politics right now, but it sure beats the alternative.