Friday, March 21, 2014

Global Warming: Sell Your Barely Above Sea Level Property

The only question is when, not if, the sea levels will rise and cover land that millions of people live on.

I have never been an optimist that mankind would do whatever might be necessary to reduce the CO2 in the atmosphere, even though there is no doubt in my mind that human activity produces CO2 and higher levels of CO2 in the atmosphere cause warmer temperatures which in turn are reducing the ice pack.

The  reason for my pessimism is that this problem is rooted in 200 years of industrialization and rising living standards.  What created the life style that we in the developed world enjoy is based upon the use of carbon energy.  We cannot have our life style without the use of carbon energy.  And what we have in life style, is what those in the emerging and frontier markets want for their life style. They will continue to increase their use of carbon.  Only after attaining a certain life style will they start to understand the need to reduce their use of carbon.  Witness what is happening in China.

Committed politicians could change this with the use of market forces to generate incentives for non-carbon energy development and use.  Cap & Trade was designed by elements of the Republican Party as a market based alternative to carbon taxes.  But today, Cap & Trade is right there with another GOP idea, ObamaCare, as being toxic to support if you are a Republican.

Today I read a Bloomberg column explaining why this political pressure will never develop in the U.S.A.  Too many Americans, particularly those in the Republican Party, but also some independents and probably even some Democrats, believe that Global Warming is a normal part of the earth's cycle.  Evidence that the pace of change is faster then at any point in history (probably because of human use of carbon energy) is unconvincing to these people because they believe the scientists have an economic incentive to keep saying that carbon use is causing global warming.  The fact that these guys are paid is sufficient to introduce a doubt as to the credibility of what they are saying.  Even tho 98% of scientists in this field agree, these doubters believe the other 2% who somehow are not susceptible to being influenced by those that pay them.

In other words, the same mentality that leads to the belief that the NSA is listening to every phone call we make, that NIMBY'ism does not have an effect on economic growth, also leads to distrust of the government and science.  I don't believe it is possible to convince a closed mind.

So, as my son has stated for at least 5 years, good bye polar bears.  They are a goner.  So are many island nations, low-lying populated lands in numerous countries including Miami Beach and other parts of Florida, a lot of Manhattan and Baltimore, and who knows where else.  I have no idea how fast the waters will rise or how much they will rise.  Perhaps I should buy property in White Plains or Peekskill.  I just don't know how to profit from a relocation of Manhattan's vibrant upper income metropolitan center to another spot.  You would have to tear down almost everything just to rebuild the streets and mass transit to work efficiently.

Link to Bloomberg Article

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